Originally Posted by Solid Snake
(Post 1156615)
Vote: Nikose
Because I <3 you.
...No, actually because predicting potential Mafia night kills without the context of power role knowledge is, believe it or not, a tried and true Scum strategy.
...Town, generally speaking, is far more worried about who to lynch than worrying about who may (or may not) die N1. Predicting the activity of what Scum will do, particularly on D1, is an absolute exercise of futility for Town.
Scum, however, benefits by making a prediction that someone will die N1 and then not killing that person N1. If townies eventually collectively buy into a repeated notion that "Snake (or anyone else), if he is Town, will die tonight because X," scum will easily yet subtly guide Town into a mislynch. If Nik is scum his entire ploy would therefore be: "I'll establish I believe that Snake is almost certainly Town now, then express abject disbelief as he continues to survive (all the while knowing he's alive because we're not targeting him), paint a bullseye on his back and let others deal the deathblows."
Also, the problem with Nik's posts is that his lack of elaboration prevents any of us from knowing whether he's actually being serious in anything he types or joking. Which, again, is a vagueness strategy that benefits Scum. Nik could totally play off any comment he makes as "Nik being Nik." I'd rather not spend the whole game questioning the sincerity of every one-sentence statement he makes.
NOTE: Even in typing this I am aware of the likelihood that I am overestimating the crap out of Nikose, and out of everyone playing this game. Assuming Nikose of all people would be playing intelligently and making such gambits as scum is kind of like assuming that a monkey could write a Shakespearean play. (Which, if you're Smarty, is apparently quite easy to believe.)
Nonetheless, I'm sticking by my guns and also suggesting to you all that I think Town Nik would be much more talkative than this; I think there's a greater probability Scum Nik would feel a sense of responsibility towards his teammates and subsequently tone down his usually chatty behavior to benefit his team.
As Town 'Nilla, Nik would totally like be "I AM CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE YOU PUNKS," and he'd create some controversy. I know you Nik! You would!
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