The Warring States of NPF

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-   -   China to North Korea: "You're on your own now, bitches" (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showthread.php?t=34864)

stefan 06-01-2009 05:44 PM

China to North Korea: "You're on your own now, bitches"
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...YJ8&refer=home

Quote:

China Suspends North Korea Exchanges, Yonhap Reports (Update1)

By Kyung Bok Cho and Dune Lawrence

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- China suspended government exchanges with North Korea after Kim Jong-Il’s regime last week tested a nuclear device and fired short-range missiles, Yonhap News said.

China has halted plans to send officials to North Korea and won’t accept visits from Kim’s government either, the Korean- language news agency said today, citing unidentified diplomatic sources in Beijing.

China’s foreign ministry has said the country “resolutely opposes” North Korea’s nuclear test. China on May 25 agreed with the U.S., Japan and Russia to work toward a United Nations Security Council resolution censuring North Korea. The U.S. and Japan want the statement to call for cutting the communist country’s global financial ties, UN diplomats said.

China’s foreign ministry didn’t immediately respond to a faxed request for comment today.

So, I'm trying to think of some witty paragraph-long comment to put here so that I don't violate the discussion rules by way of just copy-pasting a bare article and posting it, but really, what else is there to say aside from "haha Kim, you're fucked now"? I mean, as far as I can tell, Fear of pissing off China is the only reason that nobody's gone in and shut the would-be Bond Villain up already, and my worry is that without China's threat of defending NK the warhawks will lead the US into another war and screw ourselves over for good.

so, yeah. tl;dr: China tells NK to fuck off, I worry that the US is going to get stuck in another war we can't afford just to take advantage of the opportunity.

Professor Smarmiarty 06-01-2009 05:52 PM

I'm fairly positive that China will strongly oppose any attack on North Korea. I mean they have suspended government exchanges before but they still look out for NK and still are going to get shitty if the Americans try to take over a piece of territory right next to China. They're just trying to put pressure on NK to do what they want just like everyone else does. Doesn't mean they'll abandon them.
I really can't see any war looming as even if China had no problem with it, which is highely unlikely, I don't think there is much of value in NK that would help offset invasion costs.

stefan 06-01-2009 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smarty McBarrelpants (Post 934286)
I don't think there is much of value in NK that would help offset invasion costs.

well, there is the value that taking over North Korea means you no longer have a crazy dictator who possibly has nukes and is willing to use them on the source of 90% of my entertainment, pornography, and entertaining pornography Japan, a trusted ally and important member of the industrial world.

bluestarultor 06-01-2009 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smarty McBarrelpants (Post 934286)
I'm fairly positive that China will strongly oppose any attack on North Korea. I mean they have suspended government exchanges before but they still look out for NK and still are going to get shitty if the Americans try to take over a piece of territory right next to China. They're just trying to put pressure on NK to do what they want just like everyone else does. Doesn't mean they'll abandon them.
I really can't see any war looming as even if China had no problem with it, which is highely unlikely, I don't think there is much of value in NK that would help offset invasion costs.

North Korea is a black hole for resources. If they had them, Kim wouldn't need to shoot off a rocket every once in a while to keep his people from all starving while he lives like a Hollywood star.

Quote:

Originally Posted by stefan
well, there is the value that taking over North Korea means you no longer have a crazy dictator who possibly has nukes and is willing to use them on the source of 90% of my entertainment, pornography, and entertaining pornography Japan, a trusted ally and important member of the industrial world.

Only Kim's got his populace totally brainwashed into thinking he's God (or just short) and that Americans are evil monsters (which they might be justified in thinking, but not on the level that they do). All of their movie villains are Americans, you know. He's done a damn good job of demonizing us into child-eating invaders. And with him claiming credit for every last scrap of foreign aid, you're fighting an uphill battle.

Kepor 06-01-2009 06:11 PM

Really, would there be a need for the US to invade? Chinese support is what's been keeping North Korea afloat, and if they just pack up and leave, NK's in a bit of a pickle.

Of course, they could always try nuclear brinkmanship, but that wouldn't go over well with, well, anyone. At all.

edit: and Kim's brainwashing is far from perfect. Control is maintained through a mix of military power and keeping most people at just above sustenance level. Propaganda radio stations broadcasting from South Korea have likewise stirred up some dissent.

Professor Smarmiarty 06-01-2009 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stefan (Post 934292)
well, there is the value that taking over North Korea means you no longer have a crazy dictator who possibly has nukes and is willing to use them on the source of 90% of my entertainment, pornography, and entertaining pornography Japan, a trusted ally and important member of the industrial world.

Yeah, try running that one past the guys in the budget department.
It's the same reason nobody does anything about Zimbabwe or Rwanda, there is nothing to be gained from invasion.
Aside from that there are far more credible threats to both humanity and the United States than North Korea who would desperately love to be a credible threat instead of a laughing stock.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluestarultor (Post 934296)
North Korea is a black hole for resources. If they had them, Kim wouldn't need to shoot off a rocket every once in a while to keep his people from all starving while he lives like a Hollywood star.

Not particularly. North Korea does have a reasonable amount of resources but the problem is that it funnels them all into its military forces without feeding its people. This is compounded by the fact that it has only one major trading partner so production of excess goods is wasted forcing them to be more wasteful.
It's pretty much the same as lots of Africa where the people starve to fund armies and dictators, though in the case of Africa it is mostly to fund foreign corporations nowadays.

stefan 06-01-2009 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluestarultor (Post 934296)

Only Kim's got his populace totally brainwashed into thinking he's God (or just short) and that Americans are evil monsters (which they might be justified in thinking, but not on the level that they do). All of their movie villains are Americans, you know. He's done a damn good job of demonizing us into child-eating invaders. And with him claiming credit for every last scrap of foreign aid, you're fighting an uphill battle.


well, yeah. which is why I said that I'm hoping the US doesn't get the idea that without China's support they can just curbstomp NK and have the troops home in time to send them back to Iraq before anyone realizes they're gone.

Rymramoch 06-01-2009 06:20 PM

Blue is right. North Korea depends so much on foreign aid, and therefore a lot of what the North Korean military does is aimed at riling tension with other countries with the implied threat of violence if the rest of the world stops providing them food etc. However, I am unsure if North Korea really would attack anyone else, because China may not actually support them if they start it; without China, North Korea would get spanked pretty soundly.

Jagos 06-01-2009 07:03 PM

Just adding fuel to the fire

We got us a situation with NK. But they attack another country? Even if they attacked their resources are so scarce, they probably wouldn't get far. People join the army to get food. They join to be a part of something. But I doubt they'd be good in battle.

Krylo 06-01-2009 08:22 PM

If this happened last year or two years ago, worries about war with N.K. would probably be justified.

I don't think they are today.


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