Current developements in nuclear proliferation...
 

After remaining stable for quite a while, in recent times the level of global nuclear proliferation (i.e. who has nukes, who doesn't, how many they have) has been fluctuating. First we have North Korea's nuclear tests. Admittedly, the 2006 one didn't cause too much of a stir, but the latest one certainly did. Then we have the UN rising against North Korea. Then we have North Korea testing a ballistic missile. Then we have international condemnation. Then, while everything's quiet there, we have Putin saying that he'd be happy to reduce his country's stockpile of nuclear weapons as long as the US does as well. With Obama in office, I'm thinking that this "offer" might actually be accepted. And now we have North Korea withdrawing from the non-nuclear proliferation treaty, renouncing any promises and reassurances and declaring UN sanctions an act of war.

So, yeah, on one hand we have stability in a potential treaty between Russia and the US and on the other hand we have the suddenly-voliatile North Korea.

So let's discuss this. Is North Korea bluffing when they say they're going to weaponize all their plutonium? Was Putin sincere? What would the major consequences of either developement be? Will the doomsday clock go forwards or backwards? Will we all die? Has anyone seen my cheese?
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You don't have to answer the last one.

North Korea is a joke. With the extreme poverty of the country, they're not a threat in the least to anyone but Japan. If they nuke Japan, they're probably going to end up as a smoking crater in the ground, because the US and Russia both have enough nukes currently to destroy the planet outright. Each. Multiple times over.

Really, North Korea's nuke threats are to get attention for support so the people don't starve. They're not a threat in the least.

Really I got ten bucks even Japan doesn't give two shits about North Korea. There's more of a chance that any missile they get to fly off the ground will end up in the ocean anyway. Their weapons technology is below average at best and the only organizations playing them up as a threat of any kind are North Korea's own news outlet and Fox News.

Kim's running out of time anyway and I don't give his son more than a year in charge by himself before he gets shot or flat out removed from power.

That's not how I hear it. Japan, so far as I hear, hates Korea. Apparently there was even a big stir recently because some Japanese politician wanted to give foreigners who gained citizenship the right to vote, and everyone freaked out about how he was siding with Korean terrorists or some such.

Japan has always been very insular. Although the idea of a citizen not being able to vote pretty much defies the entire meaning of legal citizenship.

Essentially, though, Japan hates everyone who isn't Japanese, so it's not that they have a special hatred for Korea so much as Koreans just happen to fall under that category.

That's what I was going for there.

It's not that the Japanese fear North Korea at all. They just don't like Koreans. I bet they have more than enough at their disposal to deal with anything Kim sends their way.

Well, there's also NK government's belief that the U.S. would utterly crush them with our vastly superior army if China ever withdrew their promise of protection, which makes them utterly dependent on China for security against a violent end to their present form of government. Even a few nuclear weapons would allow NK to deter the U.S. independently.

Good luck to them shooting the things halfway around the world. Their best test wasn't even near Hawaii, was it? No, they're trying to put pressure on Japan right now, because that's the only thing they have a hope of hitting.

Also the Ocean and their own Lands, of course. I'm sure they could hit those if they really tried.

If North Korea made the first official move I don't even see Papa China sticking around to defend them against the US.