Lets shove a nail into the Mars One coffin
 

Now I was hopeful for Mars One for two reasons. First is just the fact someone is trying, secondly while I didn't think it would succeed I did think even a failed attempt to colonize mars would aid future attempts.

Then I came across this, an article from a talk with one of the finalists for the mission

Their "selection" process is determined not by qualifications, but mostly by how much revenue you generate for the project. There has been zero training, psychological evaluation, or even in person interviews. Even if I accept this is a legit non-profit and not a scam, it seems pretty clear they focus purely on trying to get money for the project with no real consideration for the logistics of it.

So, reversing the usual trend, the plan seems to be

1. Profit
2. ???
3. Colonize Mars

I have a friend who was one of the top 100 finalists. I'm not terribly surprised that this whole thing is starting to fall apart like it is, as it was a pretty harebrained idea to begin with, but I am still a little sad, as the Mars One mission was at least a notable example you could point to of people willing to push the boundaries of science and space exploration in a fairly egalitarian way by trying to crowd-fund some of the research stages and opening up the possibility to explore space to anyone who wanted to give it a go.

But yeah, I'm not surprised that it sorta ended this way. The whole project just sorta seemed mismanaged, with loftier goals than actual plans.

The whole thing got about as much press as it deserved, which was quite a bit, and about as much validiation as it deserved, which was basically nothing.

:(
 

:(

There's an argument against space exploration that says we need to mature more, as a species, before we can be trusted with space. I don't like it, but the fact that the best plan to colonize Mars we've come up with yet was to finance it through reality TV makes me think it might be right. Imagine what the astronauts would do if encountering an intelligent alien species if their primary concern was getting good ratings.

You need some motivation. Originally, while it was marketed as a venture of science and exploration congress only gave the ok because it allowed us to shove our ballistic missile cock in the Soviet Union's face. Their are treaties that disallow military weapons in space (which is good, that would get out of control fast) or nations to claim territory in space or on any celestial body. Thus a nation has no real reason to dump a massive amount of funding into a colony that can in no way benefit them.

Research might seem like another good justification and for probes and space stations it is. But you experience massive diminishing returns when you get into things like sending humans to other worlds to physically do the research. Especially since those humans, while I have no doubt are intelligent, are picked mostly for their ability to survive the trip and not their skills at laboratory studies.



The only real motivation is money. Most likely in the form of skymining or entertainment. Both of which are of far greater interest to entrepreneurs than governments. As this has shown us, even if a non-profit does come along they'll need the big pockets of for profit industries to afford it.

My bet is that the first orbiting colony will basically be Space Vegas

And then we get in a feud with the aliens who own Gal-atlantic City

I'm pretty happy if this crashes and burns, it has been an irresponsible and irreverent concept from the outset. It would set an unwelcome precedent as well. If capitalism were used as the foundation for colonization I feel that would just set the wrong tone, and perpetuate the ills that already exist on our planet throughout the solar system. Interplanetary colonization is a very serious endeavor, probably the most meaningful endeavor humanity will ever undertake. I feel our species would be shamed indelibly if our first interplanetary pioneers were reality television personalities rather than dedicated professionals.

Of course when we look at the patterns of colonization on our planet two very obvious themes emerge. It is either desperation or greed that drives people from their homes into the unknown, usually a mixture of both. Ruthless, powerful men gather the desperate and dispossessed and set sail for a new land and war. One assumes on Mars there will be nothing to war against, and yet we still cleave to the age old maxims. The rich and the powerful will enlist the aid of the desperate and dispossessed.

Interplanetary resource management, interstellar travel; these will be the great tests of humanity. Before you undertake the greatest test you should probably study. I would hope that the human species is able to reach a place of greater enlightenment before it attempts to expand its sphere of influence. If we are unable to dictate the manner in which we begin these endeavors then its likely we are not ready, and isn't it best to avoid disaster when possible?

Until colonization born of greed and despair is a bygone concept, we have no business leaving this planet.

To be blunt this is rather idealistic to me. Of course the desperate and greedy were the early colonists. Why would you toss away a perfectly happy and content life to develop land that has a very high mortality rate. You either have no choice, or the potential of wealth is too enticing and as you said likely both.

What other reason besides the hope of a better life could motivate people to leave the home of their very species? I guess just people that really want to do something thats never been done, but that still requires someone to pay for it and I doubt a billionaire is going to dump all his money into a space colony on a whim. The cost of space colonization is so great it requires a very high return to justify. While it doesn't have to be money exactly but since imperial expansion isn't really a thing anymore I cant think of anything else.

People just aren't going to dump hundreds of billions of dollars into a space colony "for the good of humanity". You need the wealth of either nations, who honestly don't care, or corporations who need to see a profit in it. While the colonists themselves, again will need their own motivation of desperation or wealth. Most people are not going to risk their lives out of an enlightened sense of duty to humanity when they already have a nice home in the suburbs.

Mars One was ill-conceived but they did get one thing right, these are "colonies" not outposts or space stations. The one-way ticket thing is going to have to happen. Because the entire idea is people living there permanently