"Trump leads GOP polls" or, "Lol"
 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/14/politi...ll7pVODtopLink

The title really speaks for itself on this one, I think.

He's at 17%, and the republican party leaders hate him for it, since he's kind of directly showing what their voting constituency looks like.

Looking at his business record and, business ethics, I really hope he doesn't win.

I can't help but applaud his total disregard for the Republican SOP of dog-whistle racism, opting instead to wear it on his sleeve. That he has such support in polling after making those statements is forcing the uncomfortable truth within the party to acknowledge what their base stands for, and proving difficult for many of their other more moderate members to denounce Trump for fear of losing support of those people.

In short, he's making it really difficult for any Republican to win the Presidency, not just himself. And I say GOOD.

Why?

Think about this. After the primary, the Presidential candidates have to start campaigning in earnest, dialing back all the shit they said to garner support from within the party so they can appeal to the moderates and undecided.

Trump has burned numerous bridges already, and not half-way. He has demonstrated a complete lack of self-control and his stubborn ways assure he won't tone himself down at all. Him winning the primary is basically the death knell for the Republican bid for Presidency in 2016, a serious dodge of a bullet.

Oh good lord, please no. Republicans, PLEASE, just... ANYONE ELSE.

Because I know pattern recognition. You are drastically over-estimating the american voters that they will actually put any real thought into their vote. It will come down to this. "I wasn't satisfied with the democrat president so this time I'll vote for the republican". Thats why we've had this pattern for over 20 years.

Both parties have become very good at marketing, so votes come down to more simple habits. Any real information requires more research than your average voter is willing to put forward.

I think you are vastly underestimating, to comical extremes, how much people think about how they vote

If America actually elects Donald Trump as president when it had the chance to elect Bernie Sanders instead then it 100% deserves everything that follows in the country's ensuing decline.

Better the devil you know...
 

Even though I can't stand the man's politics, at least he's up front about them.

I am not describing a conscious thought process, I am describing a shallow feeling. The rhetorics are pretty much the same and the feel the last time they went with something similar they were unimpressed with the result. The underlining reason is they feel their previous choice was a mistake, I don't expect them to be able to articulate it.

There is probably alot of macro-psychology involved as well. No matter what American's will blame all issues on the President, but they don't really view the President as an individual. Just the face of a political party. The next candidate is the new representation of that party and those feelings remain. American's dont vote for a political party, they vote against the opposition. Thats why it doesn't matter who the Republican candidate is. Because no one will be voting "for" the Republican candidate, they will be voting against the democratic candidate