The Warring States of NPF - View Single Post

Solid Snake · 09-30-2011, 02:45 PM

Losing D1 actually benefits Town statistically in that situation, which is why it usually happens.
I mean, it still is a net loss for Town (deserved, because a Townie made the error) but treating Bookie's situation as a Typical D1 Mislynch enables Town to get away with losing only one Townie D1, which is something that actually happens, more often than not.

The alternative is a greater than 50% chance, based on pure statistics, that Town loses two of its members D1, which would have put Town in a very discouraging situation and usually does not ever happen on D1.

09-30-2011, 02:45 PM	#6
Solid Snake Erotic Esquire Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,563	Losing D1 actually benefits Town statistically in that situation, which is why it usually happens. I mean, it still is a net loss for Town (deserved, because a Townie made the error) but treating Bookie's situation as a Typical D1 Mislynch enables Town to get away with losing only one Townie D1, which is something that actually happens, more often than not. The alternative is a greater than 50% chance, based on pure statistics, that Town loses *two* of its members D1, which would have put Town in a very discouraging situation and usually does not ever happen on D1. __________________ *WARNING:* Snek's all up in this thread. Be prepared to read massive walls of text.