[Geminex]

Okay, wow. We are really getting caught up in this Sif/Karesh situation, aren't we? This is what the accusations against snake tie into, isn't it?

Right, what do we know. Sif said he knew who Fluttershy was and confirmed Karesh's roleclaim. Karesh claims to have immunity from being targeted at night as far as I can tell.

Snake thinks it's iffy that Fen would allow such a role to exist (which makes total sense, since it seems absurdly powerful) and has suggested that a good way to confirm Karesh's role would be for the vig to attempt a kill. Hmm.

We have 4 possible situations here:

Karesh and Sif both town: Plausible. In this case, everything is dandy. It'd be weird for Fen to put such an absurdly powerful fluttershy into the game, but that's the way it would be.

Karesh scum and Sif town: In this case, sif would've made his roleclaim in good faith, and Karesh would actually be fluttershy. It makes no sense, unless anyone here is willing to accept that fluttershy might be scummy. Not plausible.

Karesh town and Sif scum: Would make sense. Sif hasn't actually proven that he knows anything, and it'd fit in with his previous behavior. I still think the suicide thing is a bluff, I'll get back to this later. Sif would in this case probably have assumed that Fluttershy is the Doctor, and tried to get fluttershy to reveal themselves. Mind you, if this is the case, why'd Karesh not get nightkilled? I guess the mafia would've just believed Karesh's power claim.

Karesh and Sif both scum: The two would've set up the gambit to protect each other, both taking steps to avoid an investigation, Karesh by claiming immunity to night actions, Sifright by doing the suicide thing. It'd also explain why Karesh didn't get nightkilled.

So, 4 situations. 3 of those are at least plausible. We're trying to find out which it is. SO how to do it?

We can either test Karesh's claim to invulnerability, via Vig. Or we can lynch sif to alignment-check him. Neither are optimal, obviously.

If we lynch Sif, he's dead, no matter what the outcome is. If he turns out to be town, that's obviously bad. What's good is that, in this case, we kill Sif, but, in return, we get confirmation that Karesh is town, and thus have someone trustworthy. If he turns out to be mafia, which I actually think is likely, at this point, coolio. Point for us. The problem is that this still won't confirm if Karesh is town or scum.

Mind you, lynching happens at the end of the day. As such, if Sif is scum, the vig could still decide to go for Karesh and test his abilities. He couldn't test his alignment, mind you, he could simply test whether he's bulletproof.

Which brings us to the problem with our second option: We could let Sif live and rely on the Vig to check Karesh. But the problem with this is that we won't get anything conclusive. If Karesh is lying about being bulletproof, he dies, and we'll have a mafia kill, since I don't think a townie would claim to be immune to night actions. In addition, we'll know that Sif is Scum as well, and have two in the bag. This would be conclusive and awesome. However.

What if Karesh doesn't die? It wouldn't confirm his town status. He could simply be bulletproof scum. We'd have wasted a Vig kill, and wouldn't have anything to show for it. Hell, we might not even get a confirmation that the vig tried to kill Karesh.

While this method is good in that, if our suspicions that Karesh is falsely roleclaiming are correct, we won't kill any townies. But on the other hand, as I said, it's inconclusive. As an additonal downside this method relies on the Vig playing along, which, as Snake himself said, isn't a good thing.

Uhm. Both methods have pros and cons. I really don't think Snake favoring one over the other is evidence that he's the SK, even if he is contradicting himself.

I do think that Sif's sudden change of heart is weird. Nikose' argument didn't hold water, and, in fact, Sif's suicide would totally clear up this situation!

I certainly think that killing Sif is the better option, btw. I'd prefer to potentially sacrifice a townie and get something conclusive.

Right.

Does that make sense?

Edit:
TL; DR:
We should either lynch Sif or trust the vig to hit Karesh during this round, since it's important to clear up whether one or either of them are scum, and have the roles they claim to have. BOth solutions have advantages and disadvantages, but I'd really prefer to lynch sif, for reasons listed above. I definitely think we should do one of the two.