Hatland Mafia

[P-Sleazy]

I feel like you guys read less than I do cause suddenly I'm unkillable all the time and I made a role claim in a mafia I'm pretty sure I only posted in two times before I died, on night 1.

[Aldurin]

I'm still suspicious about his roleclaim. He may very well be doing out of the fact that we're on the way to lynch him anyway, and hoping we back off.

But scum can do some drastic stuff regarding bulletproof claims (refer to Homestuck mafia). Claiming bulletproof could work well for scum that don't want to get lynched either.

FoS: P-sleazy

I'm not completely buying the claim, but just in case he's telling the truth I won't vote for him for now.

[Geminex]

Re: Sleazy.

On the one hand, the claim itself isn't suspicious. You never want to claim bulletproof till the last second (when it might save your life), because the one thing you want is for scum to try and nightkill you. And it would make sense for a bulletproof townie to claim in this kinda situation. Though, with about 2 days left to lynch, I guess this is jumping the gun a bit.

On the other hand, that's only the claim as such. The question now is whether it falls into his previous behavior. And I think the answer to that question is a resounding 'no'. Again, as a bulletproof, if scum or SK tries to nightkill you, they're wasting a kill. You want to make yourself a target for them. Show a presence, make it clear to scum that you're a threat to them. You want to be active.

What you don't want to do is hang around in the shadows and not do very much of anything at all, which has been sleazy's apparent strategy, so far. His behavior just doesn't fit his role.

And honestly, bulletproof is a pretty good claim for scum in a corner. Bulletproof isn't as important a role as doctor or PO, so there's gonna be a lot less scrutiny from town. There might not even be a bulletproof, so you're less likely to get counter-claimed. And ultimately, nobody wants to be the one to lynch a bulletproof, cause those are prime scum targets during lynches.

P-Sleazy just hasn't behaved like a bulletproof townie would. Seems more of a scum desperation claim than anything.

So I'm keeping my vote. I'll take it off if I hear some good arguments, but as it is, I'd rather end up lynching a possible bulletproof than letting a (fairly probable) scum go free.


And sifright, your points are horrible. Drawing an obvious conclusion doesn't mean guilt. On anyone's part. Sure, you need to look for misidirection and deception, especially from other players. But that doesn't mean that nothing is as it seems. And you yourself admitted that the conclusion that Moogle was suicidal was the obvious one. Was it a good point? No, it wasn't. I hadn't considered a few factors. That's why I dropped the argument once people made those points to me. Was it a reasonable point? Yes. I'm pretty sure that "The suicidal guy probably had the suicidal role" is pretty damn reasonable.

And now to quote a few snippets.

the only reason to make it look like it is face value is basically if you are trying obfuscate info.

Why are you making the assumption I was 'trying to make it look' like anything? I made an honest argument. You are using the assumption that I was being deceptive as evidence for my deception. That's circular logic. And that's terrible.

No you worked to minimise conversation around the topic initially and then when it brought up by me you tried to move in away to makes people skeptical of whether Moogle was the recruiter or not trying to obfuscate and make people think the cult is gone

And this isn't even true. I stated that I thought moogle was suicidal. That's not 'minimizing conversation', that's stating an opinion. When you contradicted me on that, I asked you to expand on your argument. When Smarty and RO expanded on it, I came to agree with them. There was no obstruction or obfusication here. Just rational debate. And honestly, at this point, suggesting otherwise, smacks less of your concern for town, and more of your desperation to get me lynched for what amounts to no good reason.

FOS: Sifright for making some seriously bad arguments. Possibly on purpose.

[Inbred Chocobo]

Unvote: P-Sleazy

Bandwagon built up way to easy on him, I feel like scum is actively pursuing this target as its an easy target. More insight on this later as I read, but I wanted the unvote up as quick as possible.

[Mr.Bookworm]

Vote Count

P-sleazy - 6
IC
Smarty
Bahamut
rpgdemon
Ocelot
Geminex

Geminex - 2
Sifright
B_real

9 to lynch. ~33 hours left.

[Sifright]

My responses inside the quote

Originally Posted by Geminex

And sifright, your points are horrible. Drawing an obvious conclusion doesn't mean guilt. On anyone's part. Sure, you need to look for misidirection and deception, especially from other players. But that doesn't mean that nothing is as it seems. And you yourself admitted that the conclusion that Moogle was suicidal was the obvious one. Was it a good point? No, it wasn't. I hadn't considered a few factors. That's why I dropped the argument once people made those points to me. Was it a reasonable point? Yes. I'm pretty sure that "The suicidal guy probably had the suicidal role" is pretty damn reasonable.

No assuming the suicidal guy suicided and achieved nothing is not reasonable, even the role you linked explictly stated in the mafiascum page that it's a bastard role. It is unreasonable to expect bookie to give some one a suicide role that does nothing else we have been over this several times.

And now to quote a few snippets.

Why are you making the assumption I was 'trying to make it look' like anything? I made an honest argument. You are using the assumption that I was being deceptive as evidence for my deception. That's circular logic. And that's terrible.

No it's not circular logic at all, I basically looked at your actions and then tried to fit them into a model where in they would make sense to do so I tried to fit your posts into several different mind frames, the only other frame of mind your posts fits into is "Utterly clueless townie" I don't think you play that way you certainly didn't last game.




And this isn't even true. I stated that I thought moogle was suicidal. That's not 'minimizing conversation', that's stating an opinion.

When viewed under the lens of cult leader it is exactly what the purpose of that statement would be, admittedly I could be suffering from confirmation bias but that has nothing to do with the validity of my logic, basically all of your statements and posts when taken from the lens of cult leader make much more sense unless you really want to go with the "I'm a utterly utterly clueless townie"

When you contradicted me on that, I asked you to expand on your argument. When Smarty and RO expanded on it, I came to agree with them. There was no obstruction or obfusication here. Just rational debate. And honestly, at this point, suggesting otherwise, smacks less of your concern for town, and more of your desperation to get me lynched for what amounts to no good reason.

Right my arguments are bad because you don't like them given how i've provided a fairly decent rebuttal right there. Again your actions only fit under two possible aegis either you are the "completely clueless townie" or the "Cult leader" given your playstyle last game and other actions taken by you cult leader fits your MO much better especially as last game you played much better than this, you didn't have what feels like this faux cluelessness about yourself, regardless this tendency to feign cluelessness is helping no one especially when you are missing what is frankly frighteningly obvious information it's why I latched onto you as the cult leader.

FOS: Sifright for making some seriously bad arguments. Possibly on purpose.

[Ravashak]

I disagree with a lot of what you've written regarding P-Sleazy, Geminex, yes, this means a post ripped to pieces and responses to said pieces.

Originally Posted by Geminex

Re: Sleazy.

On the one hand, the claim itself isn't suspicious. You never want to claim bulletproof till the last second (when it might save your life), because the one thing you want is for scum to try and nightkill you. And it would make sense for a bulletproof townie to claim in this kinda situation. Though, with about 2 days left to lynch, I guess this is jumping the gun a bit.

At the point of P-Sleazy's roleclaim, there were 7 out of 9 required votes for a lynch on him. According to the rules, once someone reaches 9 votes, the day is instantly over. I'm not sure about the timezones of those playing, but I wouldn't want to wake up lynched prematurely if I could've prevented it either. This is purely based on the timing of the roleclaim, and doesn't attempt to judge whether or not P-Sleazy is what he says he is.

Originally Posted by Geminex

On the other hand, that's only the claim as such. The question now is whether it falls into his previous behavior. And I think the answer to that question is a resounding 'no'. Again, as a bulletproof, if scum or SK tries to nightkill you, they're wasting a kill. You want to make yourself a target for them. Show a presence, make it clear to scum that you're a threat to them. You want to be active.

What you don't want to do is hang around in the shadows and not do very much of anything at all, which has been sleazy's apparent strategy, so far. His behavior just doesn't fit his role.

I don't agree, being low profile, but not quite inactive is a method used by scum and power roles alike, to prevent suspicion on them. As such, in order to confuse mafia into thinking you might be a power role, and as such a good target for elimination, is an alternative way for bulletproof play, in my opinion. This isn't to say that high profile wouldn't be an option either, just saying that it isn't the only one, as I see it.

Originally Posted by Geminex

And honestly, bulletproof is a pretty good claim for scum in a corner. Bulletproof isn't as important a role as doctor or PO, so there's gonna be a lot less scrutiny from town. There might not even be a bulletproof, so you're less likely to get counter-claimed. And ultimately, nobody wants to be the one to lynch a bulletproof, cause those are prime scum targets during lynches.

P-Sleazy just hasn't behaved like a bulletproof townie would. Seems more of a scum desperation claim than anything.

So I'm keeping my vote. I'll take it off if I hear some good arguments, but as it is, I'd rather end up lynching a possible bulletproof than letting a (fairly probable) scum go free.

While I that what I said is not me saying Sleazy is definately town, I'm a bit suspicious of him, but at this point in time, I don't feel like he's the biggest target we have.
With two people starting to shout that Geminex is the cult leader, though with only one giving the reasons why, I'm curious as to the case that SMB built, I'd like him to give reasons why we should follow their judgement. Especially since SMB told us yesterday he'd explain it.

____

Good thing preview exists, so I can respond to newer posts...

IC, I agree, the bandwagon filled incredibly fast up to the roleclaim, and it feels pretty suspicious. Gonna look at the timing some more and see what happened in day one to see if I can feel something else suspicious.

Sif, PLEASE don't do this anymore, responding in the quote might make things just slightly easier to read, but the inability to quote is just annoying, imo.

[Inbred Chocobo]

Vote: Sifright

Why?

Short version for people like P-sleazy: He is being extremely aggressive this game, pushiing himself into the forefront, and making him appear as a valuable townie. This is going too far, and feels like an act at certain points.

Long version for everyone else: His posts are always pushy, always trying to force a decision. He feels like he is trying to rush everyone else, as if he doesn't want people to think about whats going on. His thoughts are dismissive of everyone else, and his arguement was one of playstyle change from game to game, which I've already made my thoughts from that before (aka, they change, get over it). I give credit to Sifright about thinking about the cult leader and his ideas against gem are decently sound. However, his arguement means that if mafia want a chance to win this game, they need to kill the cult leader, else the cult could very well attempt to recruit and kill more of their members, making this an easier victory for town. So, instead, I'm going to lean back and see what happens over the night before claiming Gem is cult or whatever, and continue going after mafia.

I feel like he is attempting to basically get people mad and start spamming things. People mad means people don't think which leads to bad decisions, which is exactly what mafia wants. So I am putting my vote there and seeing where it leads.

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Inbred Chocobo

Vote: Sifright

Why?

Short version for people like P-sleazy: He is being extremely aggressive this game, pushiing himself into the forefront, and making him appear as a valuable townie. This is going too far, and feels like an act at certain points.

Long version for everyone else: His posts are always pushy, always trying to force a decision. He feels like he is trying to rush everyone else, as if he doesn't want people to think about whats going on. His thoughts are dismissive of everyone else, and his arguement was one of playstyle change from game to game, which I've already made my thoughts from that before (aka, they change, get over it). I give credit to Sifright about thinking about the cult leader and his ideas against gem are decently sound. However, his arguement means that if mafia want a chance to win this game, they need to kill the cult leader, else the cult could very well attempt to recruit and kill more of their members, making this an easier victory for town. So, instead, I'm going to lean back and see what happens over the night before claiming Gem is cult or whatever, and continue going after mafia.

I feel like he is attempting to basically get people mad and start spamming things. People mad means people don't think which leads to bad decisions, which is exactly what mafia wants. So I am putting my vote there and seeing where it leads.

Could you explain how i'm being any different to day 2 of the last mafia game where I pushed really really hard for a nikose lynch and Again on day 3 of the last mafia game where I pushed REALLY hard for a Nikose lynch. Also Cult is the single most powerful faction in the game, The mafia are second strongest followed by town. I'll explain.

Presume Cult starts with only one member I think this makes sense for how bookie is running the cult leader with the ability to kill mafia.

Spread of players will be something like this, 21 Total, 5 mafia, 1 SK, 1 Cult 14 townies with some of the having power roles.

Town and mafia both have ever dwindling population contrasted with this if the cult leader isn't killed his faction grows larger every night and even if town are lucky enough to kill off one of the cultist recruits every single day or night with the help of the vig town would still eventually lose. Whilst the cult will remain either stagnant or grow while every other faction will lose players.

Mafia are strong initially due to night faction kill and knowledge of who else is their alignment. Sk is weak permanently has factional night kill but no allies. Town is strong technically but very weak due to lack of information. The reason i'm pushing so hard for the cult is because they really are that strong.

I've no interest in getting people angry, causing a shitstorm will only shutdown conversation and kill the game thread for the day I'm completely 100% utterly opposed to this. I want people talking I want peoples thoughts and frankly I'm slightly aggrieved that you think I'm trying to shut down discussion. If I was truly scum I would be quick hammering sleazy now as the voting situation was very perilous for a short while.

To reiterate I want to hear other peoples view points, Yes i've steered the topic towards gem because I believe my arguments are sound and because I believe the Cult if left to flourish will grow far to powerful, as I suspect one mafia player to be dead and the SK to be gone as well targeting the cult now makes the most sense.

[rpgdemon]

I'm not sure if I buy P-Sleazy's roleclaim, it COULD be scum trying to figure out who not to kill. Even worse, if he gets counterclaimed, we have a 50/50 tossup of whether or not we hit the bulletproof, or the scum. Yeah, we've got an identified scum for next round, but I was killed off as the real town bulletproof by a scum strategy like that, in the Homestuck game.

At the same time, Sif is definitely acting differently than before. Before, he was assertive, but now he's assertive and aggressively hostile. Having been on the other side of his aggressiveness before, this time feels definitely different than how he was pursuing me last game.

I'm going to Unvote: P-Sleazy, and think more.