The Warring States of NPF  

Go Back   The Warring States of NPF > Dead threads
User Name
Password
Mark Forums Read
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Join Chat

 
View First Unread View First Unread   Click to unhide all tags.Click to hide all tags.  
Thread Tools Display Modes
Unread 11-07-2006, 07:29 PM   #1
Solid Snake
Erotic Esquire
 
Solid Snake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 5,561
Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way.
Send a message via AIM to Solid Snake
Default The All-Purpose Midterm Elections Discussion Thread

...well, somebody had to make it.

Anyway, I know this topic is up a little bit in advance, but I figure it makes sense to create a single place for us to discuss the American Midterm Election results and their consequences in the political arena. For the record, I'm predicting the Dems will take the House, but only barely, and the Republicans will keep the Senate, but only barely.

It's a big deal here in Connecticut (where I'm staying at the moment) with the race between Lieberman and Lamont. I'm rooting for Lieberman to win but a Lamont victory wouldn't terribly surprise me. Lieberman's done better in the polls, but the polls don't take into account the fact that Lieberman's been shafted with a very difficult-to-find position on the ballots. Some voters who only casually or slightly prefer Lieberman may not make the effort to find him.

Coincidentally, though, I don't think these elections will have a terribly big impact on the Bush Administration, which has been somewhat of a lame-duck administration this past year even before the Midterm elections, and which will most likely only look even weaker after tonight. It won't have much of an influence on policy in Iraq, either, because the Executive Branch pretty much has the deciding voice when it comes to Iraq policies, and even if the Dems do win both Houses, their margins will be too insubstantial to effectively dismantle the President's Iraq stance entirely.

The big potential victory for the Dems really has to be the Committee ownership. Majority party has majority of the seats in the odd-numbered committees and subcommitees in the House and Senate. These committees are arguably even more powerful in their desicion-making processes and influence on bills to be signed into laws than the House and Senate chamber floors do.

I'm a political science major from the District, so I could talk all night about this, but I'll open things up now for a discussion as the results begin to pour in.
__________________
WARNING: Snek's all up in this thread. Be prepared to read massive walls of text.
Solid Snake is offline Add to Solid Snake's Reputation  
Unread 11-07-2006, 08:54 PM   #2
Sky Warrior Bob
bOB iZ brOkeN
 
Sky Warrior Bob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: It's a nice place to visit...
Posts: 3,755
Sky Warrior Bob is a splendid one to behold, except in the mornings. Sky Warrior Bob is a splendid one to behold, except in the mornings. Sky Warrior Bob is a splendid one to behold, except in the mornings.
Default

What do you mean by barely? In the Senate, its clear that a margin of 1-2 seats is barely. However, in the House, I can easily see the Democrats, at a bare minimum, by at least 7 seats. And I've heard a number of estimates putting it towards 20. So again, what do you consider barely.

As for not changing the Iraq policy, you've got to be kidding. First of all, if the Dems take Congress, Rumsfield would just have to go. I think even Bush admits that now, and if he didn't think it'd have hurt the Republicans in the election, Rumsfield would've been gone by now. And there will be more of a push for oversite, not less, and that kind of change could shame this Administration into changing some of its policies. Plus, the change might free up some of the Republican moderates into speaking their minds a bit more.

As for Conneticut, there's another factor that you might not be considering. Liberman won't have nearly the same get out the vote efforts that Lamont will be enjoying. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Republicans volunteering in huge numbers for Liberman's camp. Lamont has the internet support, as well a good number of Democrats. When it comes down to the wire, that might be enough to push Liberman out.

Personally, if there was one thing I'd like to see is that the electronic voting machines get dealt with in a serious manner. I mean, let's not even account for the fact that they're not entirely secure, or that they don't even keep a paper record... Why aren't we asking about the fact that they fritz entirely too often when over burrened by just a few too many voters. I mean they've been in use for practically 10 years, with today's technology there's no way this should be still happening.

Linky

And even if the Democrats don't take the Senate, the tone will certainly be changed. Republicans will find that they actually have to work with the Democrats more often, and actually have to comprimise a bit more. Then of course, there's always Bernie Sanders who will certainly speak his mind in the Senate, and since he's won, things will certainly get interesting there.

SWB
__________________
:bmage: Because breakdancing is evil, and so am I, you will click on this link:

You are in error. No one is screaming. Thank you for your cooperation.
Yes I know the breakdancing BM link doesn't work, and I don't care.

Last edited by Sky Warrior Bob; 11-07-2006 at 09:20 PM.
Sky Warrior Bob is offline Add to Sky Warrior Bob's Reputation  
Unread 11-07-2006, 10:05 PM   #3
Ryanderman
Beard of Leadership
 
Ryanderman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 827
Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted.
Send a message via AIM to Ryanderman
Default

It looks now that Liberman is going to win. (I'm in CT as well, it's all over the tv right now)

The Dems are going to win the House, but I really think it'll be by a much smaller margin than has been predicted. I think the Republicans will keep the Senate though, by one seat.

Really, the Democrats aren't going to be able to make huge changes in policy. With a split Congress, The house democrat, the Senate Republican, Democrats in the House are going to have to work with the Republican Senate or risk being seen as obstructionist and seriously hurting their chances in 2008. Mostly, I think all the talk about changing the course in Iraq isn't going to come to much. They'll still need to try to stabilize the region before leaving. Just pulling out would really hurt them next election. Since that's pretty much what the Republicans have been trying to do, they'll naturally work together on it, but with each side clamoring to take credit.

Perhaps a split Congress will be a good thing, since now each side will have a stake in sucess. But really, that's an optimistic view point. It's quite possible that they'll be at each other's throats even more for the next two years and nothing will get done.
__________________
~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~
Ryanderman is offline Add to Ryanderman's Reputation  
Unread 11-07-2006, 10:15 PM   #4
Solid Snake
Erotic Esquire
 
Solid Snake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 5,561
Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way.
Send a message via AIM to Solid Snake
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sky Warrior Bob
What do you mean by barely? In the Senate, its clear that a margin of 1-2 seats is barely. However, in the House, I can easily see the Democrats, at a bare minimum, by at least 7 seats. And I've heard a number of estimates putting it towards 20. So again, what do you consider barely.
Among 365 seats, I'd consider a 7-seat Democratic majority "barely." It's a much smaller majority, for example, than the 22-or-so majority the Republicans had in the House leading up to this election; and we discussed the Republican majority in the House as being relatively tiny and insubstantial; the Republican-controlled House simply didn't get much accomplished.

Quote:
As for not changing the Iraq policy, you've got to be kidding. First of all, if the Dems take Congress, Rumsfield would just have to go. I think even Bush admits that now, and if he didn't think it'd have hurt the Republicans in the election, Rumsfield would've been gone by now.
I think it's too early to tell if anything whatsoever is going to happen with Rumsfeld. Bush certainly hasn't given any indication that he plans on firing anyone in his Administration. If the Dems press the issue, maybe something will happen there, but I don't see Bush firing anyone; the Congressional Midterms won't mandate or change anything in regards to Bush's Cabinet.

Quote:
Plus, the change might free up some of the Republican moderates into speaking their minds a bit more.
As a Republican moderate myself, and one who's been disappointed with the Bush administration as of late, I'd sure as hell hope so, but I highly doubt it. The Republican party is a well-greased machine; not too many folks -- not even so called mavericks like John McCain -- are going to condemn the President for his mistakes, lest such an action cripple the entire party.

Quote:
As for Conneticut, there's another factor that you might not be considering. Liberman won't have nearly the same get out the vote efforts that Lamont will be enjoying. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Republicans volunteering in huge numbers for Liberman's camp. Lamont has the internet support, as well a good number of Democrats. When it comes down to the wire, that might be enough to push Liberman out.
Well, it does look like Lieberman's won that seat, the Independent majority in Connecticut has saved his ass. Actually, what's most likely given Lieberman his victory is the same reason why Simmons is currently ahead of his opponent; loyalty for saving the sub base in Groton. You see, despite Connecticut folks being predominantly liberal and predominantly against the war in Iraq, Connecticut does have one element conservatives and Republicans can utilize; a lot of defense sector jobs. Lieberman, Republican governor Jodi Rell (also re-elected) and Simmons all garnered great reputations among the industry for saving the submarine base and also promoting aerospace -- aerospace is the number one industry here with Pratt and Whitney's gigantic presence.

So basically, the Democrats rocked on the east coast, but it seems like Connecticut broke the trend and came out surprisingly well for the moderates and the conservatives, largely because of that one issue.

Quote:
And even if the Democrats don't take the Senate, the tone will certainly be changed.
It's gone well for the Dems so far (three major victories in PN, OH, and RI) but the hardest swing states for the Dems to take are coming up; Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri. We'll see what happens, but my guess right now is the Republicans hold onto the Senate with a razor-thin 51 majority, with 47 Dems and 2 democratic-leaning Independents (Lieberman and Sanders in VT.) (EDIT: This prediction was coincidentally NINJA'D by Ryanderman.)
__________________
WARNING: Snek's all up in this thread. Be prepared to read massive walls of text.
Solid Snake is offline Add to Solid Snake's Reputation  
Unread 11-07-2006, 11:40 PM   #5
Fifthfiend
for all seasons
 
Fifthfiend's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 19,409
Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare. Fifthfiend has indicated, by your reading this, that they are now President and you have to fart gourmet mustard arugula into your Obamacare.
Send a message via AIM to Fifthfiend
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanderman
It looks now that Liberman is going to win. (I'm in CT as well, it's all over the tv right now)

The Dems are going to win the House, but I really think it'll be by a much smaller margin than has been predicted. I think the Republicans will keep the Senate though, by one seat.

Really, the Democrats aren't going to be able to make huge changes in policy. With a split Congress, The house democrat, the Senate Republican, Democrats in the House are going to have to work with the Republican Senate or risk being seen as obstructionist and seriously hurting their chances in 2008. Mostly, I think all the talk about changing the course in Iraq isn't going to come to much. They'll still need to try to stabilize the region before leaving. Just pulling out would really hurt them next election. Since that's pretty much what the Republicans have been trying to do, they'll naturally work together on it, but with each side clamoring to take credit.

Perhaps a split Congress will be a good thing, since now each side will have a stake in sucess. But really, that's an optimistic view point. It's quite possible that they'll be at each other's throats even more for the next two years and nothing will get done.

I think any swing in congressional leadership is going to make a huge difference, if only because the Republican party has taken an agressively exclusionist tack all throughout its leadership of the Legislature , so control of even the House at minimum means Democrats actually have to be included in the process of government. Votes being held open for hours so the party whips can yank their people back into line, conference committes making wholesale revisions to legislation, all the levers of one-party rule are going to be out of Republican hands. It puts the Democrats in a real position to advance a legitimate alternative to the Republican agenda.

So far as Iraq goes, given polls have for some time consistently held against our involvement and conduct in that nation, I don't see how advocating for withdrawal would hurt the Democratic party's electoral chances.

... You know I'm just sayin', does the VA Sen race have to be right on the damn knife's edge?

... Look at that, a speech from George "Never Going To Be President" Allen. Yeah, I get the feeling one way or the other this is coming down to a recount.

... Democrats are up like forty seats in the House, with sixty seats left to come in. I mean they're winning seats in damn Kansas.
__________________
check out my buttspresso

Last edited by Fifthfiend; 11-08-2006 at 12:57 AM.
Fifthfiend is offline Add to Fifthfiend's Reputation  
Unread 11-08-2006, 01:01 AM   #6
Long-Haired Narcissist
Not bull****ting you
 
Long-Haired Narcissist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: UofM
Posts: 964
Long-Haired Narcissist is reputed to be..repu..tational. Yes.
Send a message via AIM to Long-Haired Narcissist
Default

CNN projects Ford to lose in Tennessee for Senate right now.
Democrats only need two more to get House majority.
Democrats are leading in all three Senate races right now, and the Democrats just took the House. Screw you, GOP!
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by DFM
Every sig that has me in it is pretty much the best sig.

Last edited by Long-Haired Narcissist; 11-08-2006 at 01:31 AM.
Long-Haired Narcissist is offline Add to Long-Haired Narcissist's Reputation  
Unread 11-08-2006, 01:35 AM   #7
Solid Snake
Erotic Esquire
 
Solid Snake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 5,561
Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way. Solid Snake didn't even know you could use a corkscrew in that way.
Send a message via AIM to Solid Snake
Default

Well, looks like I'm about to be proven wrong. The Dems need three seats to reclaim the Senate (apparently Sanders and Lieberman can both be convinced to drop their Independent status and go Dem to break the tie), and they just might do it. Missouri and Montana -- I mean how in the hell do Missouri and Montana break left, is what I'm wondering -- both currently sport leads for the Democratic challengers and Allen is behind in Virginia for the recount.

The fun irony about all this is that I recently applied for an entry-level research job with a Senate committee in my beloved home, the District, and I was told, point blank, by human resources that given my resume the Senate would need to stay Republican in order for me to be considered for an interview. (Majority chairs in committees have greater discretion when it comes to new hires.) I thought that was a good deal at the time because the Senate seemed relatively safe. If the Republicans lose the Senate by just one, I'm going to be bawlin' for weeks. And cursing Mark Foley. Damn you, Mark Foley!
__________________
WARNING: Snek's all up in this thread. Be prepared to read massive walls of text.
Solid Snake is offline Add to Solid Snake's Reputation  
Unread 11-08-2006, 07:10 AM   #8
Ryanderman
Beard of Leadership
 
Ryanderman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 827
Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted.
Send a message via AIM to Ryanderman
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fifthfiend
So far as Iraq goes, given polls have for some time consistently held against our involvement and conduct in that nation, I don't see how advocating for withdrawal would hurt the Democratic party's electoral chances.
Because if, Democrats actually force the military to pull out of Iraq prematurely, and then Iraq collapses, people will realize how bad an idea it was to withdraw. And that will hurt the Democrats in 08. Despite the promises to get out within the next year or so, they'll have to make sure they stabilize the region before leaving if they want any chance of winning the Presidency. And since that's what the Republicans have been trying to do anyways, they'll actually work together for a change.

Maybe

It looks now like the Senate will go Democrat. It's incredibly close, and we're going to have recounts in Virginia, and possibly... Montana?

If the congress goes entirely Democrat... with a majority so thin in both houses, they aren't going to be able to defeat Bush vetoes. Not much is going to get done.

One thing though, the tax cuts will expire. Those tax cuts actually really helped my parents. Even though they're.. yah know, far from rich. The whole "tax cuts for the rich" rhetoric was just bull.
__________________
~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~
Ryanderman is offline Add to Ryanderman's Reputation  
Unread 11-08-2006, 08:17 AM   #9
Sky Warrior Bob
bOB iZ brOkeN
 
Sky Warrior Bob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: It's a nice place to visit...
Posts: 3,755
Sky Warrior Bob is a splendid one to behold, except in the mornings. Sky Warrior Bob is a splendid one to behold, except in the mornings. Sky Warrior Bob is a splendid one to behold, except in the mornings.
Default

One thing I'd hope this new Congress does is switch things away from political favors, towards a direction that starts to get things done. I mean in Iraq, New Orleans & I think New York city, the reconstruction projects typically have gone to people based on pollitical affiliation, not qualification. In Iraq, power & water were dragged out for far too long, and efforts to bring in a police effort came a bit late (as I recall, I didn't here anything about Iraqi police until the provisional government had left office). In New Orleans its pretty much the same thing, even with Halliburton getting a no-bid contract. New York I'm not so certain about, but I think I heard something that was a bit unforward.

And I wonder if the Abaramoff situation will effect anything further down the line. If any Republicans were effected by him, the chances of that coming out in a Democratic controlled Senate/House are increased over a Republican controlled one.

As for Bush's veto power, the Democrats could easily turn that against him. Since he only has used his veto once, it'll be easy to paint him as an obstructionist if he goes veto happy. Public opinion has shamed this admin into changing its positions in the past, and if Bush's staunch positions start to hurt the Republicans chances down the road, there will be an effort to change things.

SWB
__________________
:bmage: Because breakdancing is evil, and so am I, you will click on this link:

You are in error. No one is screaming. Thank you for your cooperation.
Yes I know the breakdancing BM link doesn't work, and I don't care.

Last edited by Sky Warrior Bob; 11-08-2006 at 08:24 AM.
Sky Warrior Bob is offline Add to Sky Warrior Bob's Reputation  
Unread 11-08-2006, 09:38 AM   #10
Ryanderman
Beard of Leadership
 
Ryanderman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 827
Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted. Ryanderman bakes the most delicious cookies you've ever tasted.
Send a message via AIM to Ryanderman
Default

Wow! I'm paraphrasing here, but last night Howard Dean said on Chris Matthews, "We aren't going to be able to do much in Iraq." He says that the Democrats do not plan to pull out immediately, and in fact would not give Matthews a timetable for leaving Iraq, even as general as in one or two years. He said "I'm not going to play that game." Hasn't Dean asked Bush for time table several times?

Dean said they don't plan to "stay the course", but rather find new plan to win. Except... "stay the course" never meant "do the exact same thing over and over and hope that eventually it works" It meant not pulling out, trying to find a way to win.

So in essence, the Democrats are going to do the exact same thing that the Republicans have been doing in Iraq.

I'll try to post a transcript when I find it, but it hasn't appeared online that I know of yet.
__________________
~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~

Last edited by Ryanderman; 11-08-2006 at 09:55 AM.
Ryanderman is offline Add to Ryanderman's Reputation  
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:54 AM.
The server time is now 09:54:29 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.