Hatland Mafia

[Mr.Bookworm]

I would greatly appreciate it if all sides involved would never do that again. Ever or I will start booting people which I would really prefer not to do. I would also particularly not like my Mafia game being the one that gets this entire thing banned from the forums forever again.

Anyway. Let's all be pleasant, and if someone makes something you perceive to be an insult, step back from the computer a bit and go pet a kitten or something until you won't respond with overwhelming vitriol. We are all reasonable adults playing a game on the Internet with other reasonable adults. This game should not get anyone riled up ever.

Vote Count

P-Sleazy - 3
Karesh
Shyria
Moogle

Aldurin - 3
Ravashak
Kerensky
Bard

Karesh - 3
P-Sleazy
Hawk
Snake

Solid Snake - 3
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot

Shyria - 1
IC

11 to lynch. ~34 hours left.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I think we can discount P-Sleazy's votes as mostly jokes. Which puts us down to me, Al and Snake.

I still feel like the Al group lacks concrete reasoning for a lynch, the Snake group is reactionary and may actually feel that while Snake may not be scum he's insulted them in some way and thus they feel they should reactionarily vote him off.

And then there's me, who can't be scum becauuuse... I ain't.
That's about all there is to say on that matter.

[BahamutFlare]

Hmm. Through this entire thing, Aldurin has been a lot quieter. Maybe once he started being a bigger target for a lynch, the mafia wanted him to quiet a bit?

What happens if majority isn't reached? Is it who has the most votes? Or Is it a no lynch? Or if someone is at 10 and everyone else at 2 or 3, a close enough thing occurs?

Umm Can't we all agree to Friendship the Hell out of every one of us and give big hugs!

[Fenris]

Whoever has the most votes on them at deadline is lynched, regardless of if they had majority.

[rpgdemon]

I think we can discount P-Sleazy's votes as mostly jokes. Which puts us down to me, Al and Snake.

You say that, but these "joke" votes happen to be in the lead.

[Fenris]

You say that, but these "joke" votes happen to be in the lead.

Actually, tied for the lead with 3 other contingencies.

[BahamutFlare]

I think we can discount P-Sleazy's votes as mostly jokes. Which puts us down to me, Al and Snake.

I still feel like the Al group lacks concrete reasoning for a lynch, the Snake group is reactionary and may actually feel that while Snake may not be scum he's insulted them in some way and thus they feel they should reactionarily vote him off.

And then there's me, who can't be scum becauuuse... I ain't.
That's about all there is to say on that matter.

What I don't see is why it has to be one of you three? The possibility that all three of you are town exists. If we can take a step back, and look at the other members, then maybe we can find scum hiding. In this whole fight, it gave mafia members a perfect reason to lurk. Who wants to get involved in that messy a fight? They can not post and make it an easy day 1 for themselves. Right? I've stated who I suspect the most, P-Sleazy and Shyria. I don't know how they usually act, so because they aren't actually contributing in any way. I perceive that as being against the town.

On a note, who all is still inactive? I don't think I saw Moogle and I don't have a list of members in front of me and bringing up another screen to check for a minor thing isn't that bad.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I was actually about to call Aldurin out on his inactivity, as I remember him being far more active last game than he has been so far. He also claimed vanilla before, which somebody mentioned as being a newbie scum tactic, though I duno if Al has ever been scum before or how many games he's even played.

Of course it could just be down to recent... discussions scaring him off, because I know it was with me.

Either way, as he was essentially vanilla last time (despite his 1 shot override power) he was still far more active than this.

Won't change my vote yet though, as I want to see what his response is to these thoughts first.

[Aldurin]

Ok, I've messed up my strategy. I was claiming vanilla to try to hide my role from the scum, but clearly that didn't work too well for the rest of town. I was hoping a different approach would help me not fuck up horribly.

Also I literally do avoid taking part in Snake's arguments because I simply do not have the willpower to read that much pink text. I really only skim the responses of people who have read his posts. I will still maintain my vote on Snake for now, since I truly believe that his posts are trying to put heat off of him while disorienting the rest of us.

I may lean toward P-sleazy if I see a stronger argument against him.

[Ravashak]

Everyone has posted at least once, so in that sense, my objective was achieved. Since then, it seems a lot of people went fully/near silent, though, but that's another issue.

Unless things change further in the thread, I'm sticking to my vote on Aldurin, things just didn't feel right in the posts, as I've said before.

[Moogle0119]

While I have been keeping up with the thread in my spare time since my last post, the reasons I haven't posted yet is due to having to spend too much time reading walls of text from various people (not gonna bother posting names) so that I honestly don't HAVE time anymore to respond. The few times I have though, I've very deliberately been not posting and more worried about staying out of the drama that just happened. I rather enjoy playing mafia games and I don't want to see them banned from these forums again because of a few posters.

With that being said...

Unvote: P-Sleazy
Vote: Bard

He's made more than a few posts with absolutely zero content or contribution to the thread. The ones in question....

Reading backlog!
This entire post isn't necessary honestly, unless you have something to contribute, clarify, or defend yourself against.

ARG BACKLOG
Again, really?

Okay I've read most of the backlog, and I'm putting Karesh on my FOS for the moment, because she's being odd. I'd put Shyria there, but Shyria hasn't posted much and you're justified in posting silly shit on your first few posts on D1.

Still not changing my vote for the moment though.
While there is some content here with your FOS towards Karesh and you'd "put Shyria there" in the end you haven't added anything and just continued to pad your post count in this game.

ugg i have school soon but i think my thought worked out, see you all around 3
......

Well Sif made a lot of my post for me. In shoret, Snake's post are overtly personal, seem really insulting towards who they arew posted at, and don't feeel like they contribute much regardless of length. I didn't even feel like that is MLP mafia! But I do get the distinct feeling of that now.

So yeah, I am actually strongly considering a Snake lynch just to end it.
While reading this it DOES look like you have some suspicions, but you're not really elaborating on anything that someone else already hasn't. It reeks of mafia just parroting someone else's ideas and trying to stay as an active poster for the eventual "let's get the inactives!" phase and also trying to remain inconspicuous.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Thoughts-
Inactives- Man I waslooking over the player ist and was like Hathater- haven't heard from that person, then I like that'sme.
I'm not going to really crack on any inactives right now, this thread is such a shithole i don't blame them.
I have strong suspicion scum are hiding out under all the shitstorms going on.
Main vote trains

Karesh- Don't have a solid read on karesh. Has a role, could go either way.
Aldurin- He is inexperienced, but his posting behaviour is fluctuating as if he is being primed by other scum. Put in the suspect file.
P-Sleazy- I've played lotsof games with p-sleazy and he's always pretty low active firstfew days so notmuch to say on getting a role of him.
Shyria- Onlymade 1 post dropping a vote on P-sleazy. Probably not reading thread. Dump when we have the chance.
Moogle- I'm buying that he is busy at work. This thread is massive. See how he responds once days get quieter.
Sif- Hard to seperate from the big split with snake. There are vibes here of scum in his slight needling of new vote targets- a classic laying out of threads for town to follow- but his involvement in the snake fight vindicates him a bit.
IC/Fen/Bahamut Flare- good posts so far, but also dropping somethreads. Go back and follow the threads they laid once we get somemore info.

So I'm left with Bard and Snake.
I coudl get behind Bard but I'm going to do this:
Vote:Snake
for the good of the town. All discussion today has been pretty much torpedoed by Snake's antics and he is possibly not coming back so I feel regardless of his alignment this is a solid move.

I also think the scum are hiding- there wa sa big shitstorm today and they would have used that as an excuse to stay low (maybe 1 of them in the shitstorm). Tommorow once we have some more roles look at the outcomes of all the joke votes/voting blocks, there coud be some info here.

[Inbred Chocobo]

I've posted my thoughts on why I am wary of Snake, which doesn't really have anything to do with him causing people to rampage. Since Mr Bookworm won't let me double vote due to the sheer power of awesome, I have to do this to get it to count.

Unvote: Shyria
Vote: Snake

All about the bandwagon people!

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Well I also posted my thoughts on Snake which lead me to believe he was quite scumy-
He delilberately trying to provoke people and stifle discussions and his posts are all very circular and designed to look like he is providing heaps of insight and being helpful when he is actually not doing so at all.
He is more scummy than any other targets we have in my mind but my main number 1 reason for voting is to get the day discussions back on track.

[Bard The 5th LW]

He's made more than a few posts with absolutely zero content or contribution to the thread. The ones in question....

Well Moogle I haven't seen a huge deal of posts from you, if you'll please excuse my manners.

I don't have a huge deal of time on my hands until later in the day. Didn't get back until 5 just yesterday. And whne I do get back, I mostly have to catch up on this huge back and forth between Snake and someone else. Honestly? I pretty much just skimmed a majority of the recent backlog. Those posts I made earlier were right before I was about to leave, but then Sif voted right after me and he didn a good job at saying what I planned to say later.

Fine, I'll go into detail.

Karesh: Her post were all around pretty jumpy and joky, which was a change from what I saw last game, where she struck as a bit more straightforward/logical. I'm looking over the Pony mafia, and my suspicions towards her are easing up, because I actually can't see that she voted for a lynch D1 in there. So yeah, shes being consistent, just some early D1 silliness. Overall her behavior now is meshing up better with her previous behavior.

Shyria: She hasn't given much in the way of posts yet. Her first poist was, once agaij, mostly D1 silliness. Was that to add a veneer to her scumminess and then go undercover? I dunno, might be. If she doesn't post much come D2 than I might be willing to cast a vote for her.

Aldurin: His roleclaims are just weird. First he claims Vanilla and also said that Bookworm apparently wasn't very partial about doling out the role, but now he's a power role? Thats some wishy washy doubletalk. The bizarre nature of these claims make me think that he's just Scum claiming Vanilla, but then he's trying too hard to cover his tracks when people put the heat on him.

Snake: Really, it isn't as much that I think he's scum, but he's really starting to get annoying. I was mostly cool with it last game maybe 'cause I was scum, I dunno. However, it at least seemed more coherent/constructive back then. This time around it seems more like he's delivering some ad hominem and persoanl attacks. I read his post as best as I an, but I don't feel like I get any closer to his point. Just a buvnh of long posts that seem to take some stuff to personally and not deliver a point as quick as it could.

Of these 4, Snake and Aldurin are the only one I can see myself voting at the moment. I'm going to keep it all Aldurin because I feel I have the strongest case against him and he still sort of has a majority. But to all of you who still vote P-sleazy, you should probably just remove it if you don't feel he's a solid case. Someoine's going to have to get lynched, and there's no point in having a joke get that close to a majority.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Bard.
<---- Male.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Sorry, I keep seeing people say it both ways. Mistake will be rectified for future posts.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Karesh is trying to fool us into thinking he is a she to lure us into his cult!

[Geminex]

I am... honestly not sure what to make of the whole snake situation. I'm not happy with the thought of a policy lynch, even if his style has been unproductive. Hell, I'm not even sure what's up with him. Apparently he's gone from the game, but he hasn't been replaced? Or will he get replaced? I honestly have no idea, so I'm going to focus on my other suspects, namely earl and Karesh. I've been a bit more cautious this time around, but I'm pretty sure that at least one of those two is up to something. Question is, which one.

Honestly, for all of Earl's suspicious actions (roleclaiming twice, being pretty accusatory with few grounds), I could see him do all those things as town. He's not playing a good game, but he's playing a game that kinda fits within expectations, albeit the low end.

Sure, he might be scum, but he might just be overthinking stuff and trying to right past wrongs. I'm not sure which it is. I'll keep an eye on him...

But honestly, at this point, I'm thinking Karesh might be more suspicious. He's claimed... some kind of role, at least, he's still voting for P-Sleazy because of... joke votes? And he's been all-around wacky. Kinda like nikose last game, though less obviously disruptive.

Don't get me wrong, I don't trust either of them, but Earl at least has the excuse of inexperience. So if I were to vote for one of the two, it'd be Karesh.

As it is, I'll sleep on this and see how the snake thing develops.

[P-Sleazy]

Bard.
<---- Male.

My question has finally been answered!

UNVOTE: Karesh

VOTE: KARESH!

Cause he's not a she. (all the letters are there, just not in the right order).

And also, he did kinda admit to being mafia in his second or third post...WAY WAY Back. Joke claims of mafia have rarely been made by townies in my experience.

[Bard The 5th LW]

I jokingly claimed I was mafia once and then I was mafia two games in a row, so why not!

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Unvote: P-Sleazy
With the silly joke voting protocol out of the way I don't have any reason to believe Sleazy is actually mafia, in spite of his insistence that I am.

I don't really have any more energy to defend myself from claims about that joke claim at the start. If you really think that's what should cause my time in this game to come to an end then... so be it, I guess.
I figure I'm to about a 1 out of 4 chance of being lynched. If it does come to a lynch on me, I don't think the light of suspicion should be cast too harshly on those that lynched me. Admittedly the joke was a stupid thing to do, and in retrospect I guess I'd find it a bit off too. (Not that I'd lynch somebody over that shit.)

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I guess I should make clear that if you've got another reason to vote me or someone feels like going into more detail I'll probably still address that, but I've defended myself against the day one claim thing several times as far as I recall so I just don't feel like doing it again. If you want my response to it, read the previous posts I've made.

[BahamutFlare]

Aldurin is young and inexperienced right? I just don't understand why he would do the Vanilla Townie claim and then say it's now something else and he lied.

Why state that he has a different role all of a sudden? Lying never sits right with me. I get you had some strategy, but then why divert from it all of a sudden? What's the motive?

1) Maybe you are getting nervous that people may lynch you, so you say you are not a vanilla to get people to think twice upon voting for you, since the town would most likely want a power role alive.
2) Maybe you are just inexperienced and I can't tell what you're up to.

FoS: Aldurin

Could you tell us why the sudden change in more detail?

[Viridis]

Just caught up. That kerfuffle between Snake and Sifright was.... something.
I am... honestly not sure what to make of the whole snake situation. I'm not happy with the thought of a policy lynch, even if his style has been unproductive. Hell, I'm not even sure what's up with him. Apparently he's gone from the game, but he hasn't been replaced? Or will he get replaced? I honestly have no idea, so I'm going to focus on my other suspects, namely earl and Karesh. I've been a bit more cautious this time around, but I'm pretty sure that at least one of those two is up to something. Question is, which one.


I don't think Snake's leaving. Did I miss something? :raise:

I think cooler heads have prevailed, basically, but there's still the chance me might get lynched.

[greed]

No, looks like Snake has quit the forum, at least temporarily.

[Sifright]

Okay, looking back on all the posts I've decided to vote for aldurin. I don't like the way he tried to roleclaim especially the part about bookie as i don't believe he would do that so with that in mind.

Vote:Aldurin

I'm still slightly suspicious of Karesh for his nilla roleclaim but of all the players Aldurin has acted the most scummy I don't think voting for snake makes much sense as I don't think he is scum.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I'm still slightly suspicious of Karesh for his nilla roleclaim but of all the players Aldurin has acted the most scummy I don't think voting for snake makes much sense as I don't think he is scum.

Again I didn't really roleclaim much of anything and I really wish people would stop saying I did. You're entirely misrepresenting not only what I said, but the fucking context. Which was pretty obviously a joke.
It's not like I went out on day one and went ROLECLAIM NILLA TOWNIE.

No.
I made a joke about how frustrated I was that I wasn't able to kill people on a whim.
There's about three roles I could not be and then I could be anything else. If I was even honest about that.
Gawd.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I know we're always grasping at straws for day one but me and Al making jokes within the first two pages (At least I think his was a joke as well) and gettin ten kinds of suspicion for it is a new standard for silly.
Unless it turns out Al is scum and then I'll look pretty dumb as you hoist me up to the gallows.

[Sifright]

You're lucky though, it sounds like you didn't get your role described as "make your vote, sit the fuck down and don't ruin any shit".

Being a vanilla makes the game seem less exciting, but getting it because of my bad track record with power roles is a low blow.

Bookworm, you're an asshole.

See joking aside I can't see bookworm stating anything like that, this is what makes it suspicious.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

See joking aside I can't see bookworm stating anything like that, this is what makes it suspicious.

At the time I thought it was a subtext thing.
Like, "OH, HE GETS ALL THE CHEESE ON HIS PIZZA, I SEE HOW IT IS. I KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON HERE."
Only less capslock. Al lacks capslock.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

By the way I'm not by any means arguing the quality of the joke itself.
I think we can all agree that whether or not it was a joke, it was a very bad joke.

[BahamutFlare]

If it's from the first few posts that Karesh made, all he really said was that it wasn't a killing role and there was no hope of advancement. That could be most of Town or most of Mafia. I just don't see any clues in these statements.

Is there something I'm missing?

[rpgdemon]

Is voting Snake still worth it, if he's gone? I still think he's scum, and we'd get information about me, and anyone else who argued with Snake if he flips, and anyone Snake argued for/against. I'm keeping my vote right now, but go ahead and convince me of other people.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Meh, I see Snake as half suspicious, and half policy lynch. My vote for Aldurin is based on pure suspicion, and I'd rather cast my vote in on someone I genuinely suspect before someone who I find a bit irritating.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Is voting Snake still worth it, if he's gone? I still think he's scum, and we'd get information about me, and anyone else who argued with Snake if he flips, and anyone Snake argued for/against. I'm keeping my vote right now, but go ahead and convince me of other people.

I'd say we're at a point where we might not be able to confirm Snake for a while., but until we do he's not much more or less threat than anyone.
We can assume there's a standard compliment of Vig and SK. So if we're lacking a kill tonight we can glean that Snake was one or the other.

Of course, that's conjecture, not fact.

[Mr.Bookworm]

Same activity-kicking rules apply to Snake as anyone else, unless he comes back in here and still wants to quit, which I am hoping he doesn't after cooling off. Incidentally, while I am not actually going to tell you not to policy lynch, trying to do so on Snake for getting overly pissed off at the whole argument is the sort of thing that strikes me as inspiring even more vitriol (and no, this is not telling you to take your votes off Snake, or put them on him, or whatever).

Vote Count

Solid Snake - 6
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot
IC
Smarty
SECRET

Aldurin - 5
Ravashak
Kerensky
Bard
Sifright
Gregness

Karesh - 3
P-Sleazy
Hawk
Snake

Bard - 1
Moogle

P-Sleazy - 1
Shyria

11 to lynch. ~5 hours left. Crunch time, folks.

[Ravashak]

Smarty voted Snake in #262

[Mr.Bookworm]

Day ends in 1 hour, 30 minutes at 10:00 PM Eastern. One vote or unvote could change it all.

[Nikose Tyris]

VOTE: ALDURIN

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

MONOPOLY.

[Kerensky287]

Wait what

I mean, I'm all for the tie vote, but when did Nikose get in here

[Gregness]

VOTE: ALDURIN

They see him trollin', they hatin'...


Anyway.


I don't think it's good to lynch Snake at this point since no matter which alignment he flips, there was too much emotion and real offense in that debate for us to separate scumtells from injured pride I think.

So, I'll go ahead and tie up the vote for realsies.

Vote: Aldurin

[Kerensky287]

Like, for the record, I do think it's fucking hilarious that Nikose voted and was accepted.

But y'know.

[Gregness]

Maybe Bookie brought him in to replace Snake? Maybe Bookie didn't read his own list of players in the first post? The world... may never know!

[Kerensky287]

That would be very unfortunate for Nikose, but if that's the case, you may have just saved him from being voted off within his first hour of play.

[Mr.Bookworm]

Maybe Bookie brought him in to replace Snake? Maybe Bookie didn't read his own list of players in the first post? The world... may never know!

*facepalm*

Nikose, get the fuck out.

[Kerensky287]

Wait a second, that means Nikose is playing!

POLICY LYNCH

Unvote: Aldurin

Vote: Nikose

(Unvote: Nikose

Vote: Aldurin)

[Mr.Bookworm]

Yes, yes, Modkill: Nikose.

With a scream, Nikose, Jackass in a Purple Hat, dies a horrible painful death, and he will never grace this thread with his presence again.

Day 1 on, vote thing above updated, 10 minutes left.

[Kerensky287]

Joke votes aside, Gregness just voted for Aldurin, and... what the fuck? Secret votes for Snake?

Bookworm you are not allowed to play in your own game what the shit is this

[Gregness]

Same activity-kicking rules apply to Snake as anyone else, unless he comes back in here and still wants to quit, which I am hoping he doesn't after cooling off. Incidentally, while I am not actually going to tell you not to policy lynch, trying to do so on Snake for getting overly pissed off at the whole argument is the sort of thing that strikes me as inspiring even more vitriol (and no, this is not telling you to take your votes off Snake, or put them on him, or whatever).

Vote Count

Solid Snake - 6
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot
IC
Smarty
SECRET

Aldurin - 4
Ravashak
Kerensky
Bard
Sifright

Karesh - 3
P-Sleazy
Hawk
Snake

Bard - 1
Moogle

P-Sleazy - 1
Shyria

11 to lynch. ~5 hours left. Crunch time, folks.

uh, hang on a sec...

Vote Count

Solid Snake - 6
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot
IC
Smarty
SECRET


Is that...

Vote Count

Solid Snake - 6
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot
IC
Smarty
SECRET


What the hell is a secret vote?

[Gregness]

Oh, and, you missed this.

*snip*
So, I'll go ahead and tie up the vote for realsies.

Vote: Aldurin

[Kerensky287]

If your vote doesn't show up I'll assume it's yours and you just have a role that lets you vote for a different person than whom you claim.

In which case you're mafia and trying to keep the heat off of your teammate.

Conditional FoS: Gregness!

[Mr.Bookworm]

Count and formatting that I forgot to do are all checked up now.

7 minutes left.

[Kerensky287]

Well fuck, there goes my theory.

[Mr.Bookworm]

Day 1 over.

Stuff up shortly.

[Moogle0119]

Unvote: Bard
Vote: Aldurin

Because a Snake lynch won't help us at all. Plus my vote on Bard isn't helping anything anyway.

Edit: FFFFFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kerensky287]

Day 1 over.

Stuff up shortly.

Unvote: Bard
Vote: Aldurin

Because a Snake lynch won't help us at all. Plus my vote on Bard isn't helping anything anyway.

Edit: FFFFFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA

[Mr.Bookworm]

Oh god, sorry Moogle, that was some hilariously shitty timing, but the Day was already over.

---

As the day drags on, arguments are made and tempers are raised. Eventually, notice turns towards the mayor himself, who had made some of the most heated arguments of the day. At the last minute, money changes hands and consensus is had.

As he desperately pleads for his innocence, the town drags him off his podium, knocking off his mayoral tricorne, and throws him into the open grave. Dirt is piled on as he lies atop the coffin, begging for mercy, and soon, his voice may be heard no more.

Snake, the Mayor in the Tricorne, Peacemaker, town-aligned is dead.

Day 1 End, Night 1 Begin. You have 48 hours to send in Night roles.

[Mr.Bookworm]

As the day dawns, you wake up to a string of grisly murders and crimes.

A child wearing a propeller beanie was shot in the head from behind, and was found holding a bloody knife. He was found lying next to the body of a woman in a sunhat, brutally stabbed to death by the child.

A man wearing a trilby was later seen standing on top of the bridge, before jumping off. His trilby later washed ashore, and he is presumed dead.

A man wearing goggles was found in his home/laboratory on the edge of town, in several pieces, hacked to death.

In addition, there was a break-in at the home of Aldurin, although nothing appears to have been taken.

Fenris (shot to death), Kerensky (stabbed to death), Moogle (suicide), and Bard (hacked to death) are DEAD.

Night 1 over, Day 2 start. 9 to lynch.

[Fenris]

Go my alignment!

[Viridis]

Day: Welp, we lost the mayor. Wondering about that SECRET vote and the money changing hands (which I'm guessing was the fluff for that vote). Someone either has a power to vote twice or to vote in secret? Guessing, then, it would either be one of the people who voted for Snake or who didn't vote.

Night: So... Fenris was probably the SK. Moogle... is suicide a power? That would be a terrible power. Driven to it, then? Also goggles are not a hat :raise: Mafia?
Go my alignment!
Cute.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Wait... so we're not getting alignment on the dead people?
That makes things awfully difficult. Pretty hard to get leads if like 4 people die and we learn nothing about them. No real flavour text either... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
I'm guessing the kill order is the same as the flavour text order which means
Fenris was shot to death- I'm guessing that is the mafia kill.
Fenris stabbed Kerensky to death. That means either the vig or the sk. Child in a propeller beanie doesn't mean much to me. Child killer seems more creepy SK than a justice loving Vig, also a vig would wear a sensible hat probably whereas an SK could wear a wacky hat.
Kerensky- women in sunhat. Who knows
Moogle- in a trilby- trilbys are like jazzy, maybe a mafia if we are doing like a classic type mafia. Not sure about suicide role though. I'm guessing possible mafia based on his hat??? maybe have a look at his friends day 1.
Bard- wearing goggles- was killed by the Vig/SK whoever Fenris wasn't- goggles- some time of inventor role I guess.

There is also the secret vote. They had green text which I guess means they have different win conditions to others (the only alignment we've seen so far is town which is yellow). Either it is someone with two votes or one secret vote. If someone wants to go through day 1 votes from people we might be able to figure it out. Not sure what it means however and what kind of threat they pose.

Aldurins house was broken into, could be anything there.

More thoughts on Day 1 posting with our new information after work, i just reacting to the night post.

[Geminex]

Okay, phew. This is interesting.

snake: Mayor in the Tricorne. Huh. Given that his lynch was mainly a policy lynch, from what I could tell, I'm not really surprised. Bad affair all 'round, I guess. But let's put that behind us.
The pertinent question, I think, is what did we lose? Anyone got any idea what a peacemaker does? Google isn't helping.

Fen: Beanie Kid.
First off, kudos to the vig for spotting this. I wouldn't have.
I'm thinking he might've been SK. I don't really have any evidence other than flavor, but a child wearing a propellor beanie and stabbing adults to death? That doesn't sound like a mafiate. That sounds like something out of Stephen King.

Don't really have much to say about Kerensky. Sounds like vanilla townie to me, honestly. Any idea why Fen would've targeted him?

Pity about moogle. Waste of a good trilby hat, that. I guess his night 1 death was part of his role, though? And he had to avoid arousing suspicion? He did that fairly well, so well done moogle.
...
I'm assuming that he is dead? According to the flavor text, we only find his hat. But even if he survived the fall, a man can't live without his hat, can he? : o

Bard. Scientist's goggles. Assuming he's town. Maybe an inventor of some sort? That's the closest thing I can think of that fits the scientist role. If so... well, fuck. Inventors are usually pretty strong, aren't they?
If Fen was our SK, then I guess it'd be safe to assume thar Bard got hacked to death by the mafia. If so, any idea why that would've happened? Bard didn't seem like a particularly agressive player, at all. All he really did was call moogle and earl suspicious. But Moogle was suicidal and I think pretty much everyone has called earl suspcious.

And speaking of earl... What's up with the break-in? I'm not quite sure, but I think that might be our version of the PO? It'd make sense, certainly. PO breaks in and looks for clues regarding alignment. Plus, it'd make sense for earl to get investigated, since he was pretty much the number 1 suspect.

Mind you, if this is how the PO works, then that's certainly... interesting. On the one hand, it'll make it a lot hader for scum to roleclaim. But on the other hand, it makes it a lot easier for scum to figure out who the PO actually is.

One final point: What's up with the bribery? Money changes hands, causing a secret vote. Is it just me, or does that seem a bit scummy? I mean, I get that some townies have multiple votes, but a secret vote? Plus, the bribery flavor text? Sounds like subversion of the democratic process to me.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Why are you saying Fen got killed by vig and Bard by the mafia?
Like you seem awfully sure who the vig killed and who the mafia killed.

[Geminex]

Because I can't see the vig hacking someone to death, mostly. This is admittedly just conjencture, but "Hacked to death" is how I'd expect the mafia or Sk to kill their targets. Not the guy taking the law into his own hands.

Plus, wasn't Fen kinda suspicious already? More so than bard, anyways.

[Sifright]

Why are you saying Fen got killed by vig and Bard by the mafia?
Like you seem awfully sure who the vig killed and who the mafia killed.

FOS: Smarty,

Fenris is clearly the SK and was taken out by the Vig I think that is so mind breakingly obvious questioning some one on that line thought is just silly

FOS: Aldurin
Made a vanilla roleclaim with what Karesh is describing as a joke post where he claims bookie told him as an incompetent player your only going to be nilla I call bullshit. wasn't night killed by Mafia either his post would have made the mafia really want him dead.

FOS: Karesh
Sticking up for aldurin, when having no real way to know if aldurin is town or not with some patchy logic of "It was a joke". Doesn't sit well with me so suspicion by proxy.

Vote: Aldurin

Moogles death, I'm unsure of he could have quit the game but I feel it's more likely that there is a cult in the game and that when they try to recruit mafia players they drop dead instead.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Because in pretty much every mafia game I have ever played the mafia kill is a gun. Like that is what mafia do, they shoot people. Have you ever seen a mafia movie where they go aroud knifing people? Have you ever played a mafia game where the mafia kill hasn't been a gun (barring crazy settings where the mafia isn't really a mafia)?
Wtf dudes.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

But I can see your point, vig probably wouldn't cut someone up.
So let's work on Fen being SK, being killed by Vig, Mafia killing Bard and let's see what we can work out from there.

[Geminex]

Yeah, we're just stipulating on a basis of flavor text here, none of this is certain. But any basis for discussion is better than no basis. So okay.

Did you have any thoughts on the break-in? It seems like it could be the PO, to me, but I don't know how usual/unusual a PO with visible investigations is.

Moogles death, I'm unsure of he could have quit the game but I feel it's more likely that there is a cult in the game and that when they try to recruit mafia players they drop dead instead.
Huh. But why would the flavor text for that be suicide? I mean, I agree that there's probably a cult, and that maybe mafiates do die when they get recruited (to prevent the mafiate from betraying his allies). But why suicide?

Checking mafiascum right now, and apparently suicidal roles exist, while being uncommon. So... why not suicidal?

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Theory on hats- mafia will all wear the same hats. So if we find two people with same hats they are mafia probably.
Re moogle- the trillby has a lot of specific associations. Not sure how useful speculating on what kind of hats they are wearing- but trillby could be mafia. I'm not sure what kind of hat a cult leader would wear, depends on the cult- maybe the cult of JAZZ.
If he was cult trying to initiate mafia wouldn't they just kill him? I could see that maybe you would want to differentiate the night kills from cult explosion.
Could be some kind of suicidal role. Hard to say, especially on day 2. Don't suicide roles usually have some kind of effect when they suicide like take somebody else out? Or if they suicide to win or have conditions in which they suicide it usually not night 1 because toehrwise it happen too oftne.
Could be that he got culted night 1 (or night 0 if there was one) and then one of Kerensky or Bard was cult leader and its a suicy cult when leader dies. None of their hats scream cult though.

ON the breakin I guessed it was a cop.Not enough info there to really speculate I feel.

[Revising Ocelot]

Maybe the cult recruiter offs himself, rather than the mafiate. Assuming there's a cult at all. Bookie isn't giving any clues at all as to what alignments exist.

As for the breakin, it's gotta be some kind of investigative role. Maybe not a Cop, but it could be a Watcher. It was reported that nothing was stolen - a null result? If the Watcher picked someone who did absolutely nothing, that'd turn up null. A Cop would always get a result, be it Townie or Mafia.

Also, Snake being a 'Peacemaker'? Ironic, to say the least... I don't regret voting to policy lynch him yesterday, and I'm half tempted to policy lynch vote Sifright today for his own participation.

I'm going to agree with Smarty's original assessment of Fenris being SK and whoever killed Bard being a Vig. Yes, being hacked to pieces is pretty brutal, but the very nature of a Vigilante can be brutal. Look at the Punisher. Granted, I don't know if the Punisher actually chops people up, but it seems like very much like a "YOU ARE EVIL AND YOU SHOULD SUFFER" manuever.

[Geminex]

Theory on hats- mafia will all wear the same hats. So if we find two people with same hats they are mafia probably.
This is interesting. Like, it doesn't help us now, but worth keeping in mind.

In regards to moogle, suicidal roles do exist. (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Suicidal) But the trilby does seem a bit mafia-esque, and from what I can tell, suicidal isn't a super-common role. So okay, maybe moogle was a mafiate and got culted. Which would itself imply that there's a cult somewhere around. Honestly don't think that moogle was the recruiter. Trilby hat is mafia, if anything, smarty's got that right.

maybe the cult of JAZZ.
Best cult ever.

In regards to RO...

Why do you think "nothing was stolen" implies a null result? If you look at it logically, he'd be looking for clues about his target's alignment. I don't think he'd take evidence along. And besides, if we were told about the null result in the flavor text, that'd be utterly overpowered, since that would effectively confirm earl as vanilla townie.

I don't regret voting to policy lynch him yesterday, and I'm half tempted to policy lynch vote Sifright today for his own participation.
Also, this is terrible. As town, our main weapon is the lynch. Our goal is not to remove players we don't like from the game. Our goal is to win the game by killing the suspicious ones. If you policy-lynch every night, you're killing off probable townies every night while trusting your vig to do the work for you.

Hell, the suggestion allone is suspicious as fuck.
FOS: Sifright.

I'm going to agree with Smarty's original assessment of Fenris being SK and whoever killed Bard being a Vig.
As for this, we'll see what's what. All we can do is make assumptions right now. But I can't help but feel that you're being deliberately contradictory.

[Geminex]

I mean FOS: RO. Sifright is cool.

[Revising Ocelot]

Why do you think "nothing was stolen" implies a null result? If you look at it logically, he'd be looking for clues about his target's alignment. I don't think he'd take evidence along. And besides, if we were told about the null result in the flavor text, that'd be utterly overpowered, since that would effectively confirm earl as vanilla townie.

No, I'm saying it meant he didn't do anything last night. Or did all Mafia partaking in a kill suddenly become a thing again?
Results like this being publicly available wouldn't be so overpowered when you consider we have absolutely no other information on people's alignments.


Also, this is terrible. As town, our main weapon is the lynch. Our goal is not to remove players we don't like from the game. Our goal is to win the game by killing the suspicious ones.

I wasn't concerned with "is he actually mafia", because the whole shitstorm on Day 1 was terrible and made me rethink my participation in the game. Threats of banning Mafia games aren't cool, and I hear it's been banned in the past before.

[Sifright]

Also, Snake being a 'Peacemaker'? Ironic, to say the least... I don't regret voting to policy lynch him yesterday, and I'm half tempted to policy lynch vote Sifright today for his own participation.


http://knowyourmeme.com/i/000/044/032/original/heart-attack.jpg?1269304723


I'd just like to say I'm not at all angry but that has got to be one of the scummiest suggestions i've heard. It's bad enough we policy lynched one player who unsurprisingly turned out to be town. You want to do so again. The worst thing about this is that people would try to hide behind "Hmm, well it was a policy lynch whoops I guess?" Policy lynching is the worst type of lynching at least go with people you think are acting genuinely scummy.

FOS:Revolving Ocelot

The only reason i've not moved my vote to you is because I still think Aldurin is more scummy.

[Bard The 5th LW]

I hate you so much! You know who you are! (not that I do)

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I can see Fenris as the SK. Young kid in a beanie hacking people up? Yeah, definately SK-ish.

Kerensky town, hacked up by Fenris.

Moogle I don't really know. Could be suicide role, could be cult leader who tried to recruit mafia. Could go either way that one.

Bard, town inventor? Presumably vig'd. Which is really unfortunate.

On the break-in, isn't there a thief role that works like a PO but only aquires part of the role info? Like it might only learn a persons power and not alignment? Sounds like this could be a thief, though whether the fluff is indicative of Al being vanilla or what is hard to say.

I'll go back and read the thread again later and see who voted what over day one, now that we have some (semi)confirmed roles to work on.

[Revising Ocelot]

Wait wtf am I saying. Night kills didn't get expanded on in other Mafias, why would they now. Only lynches do. Snake got shown by lynch.

Stupid fucking idiot Ocelot.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

I'll have a talka bout RO and others later, just saying I didn't think that maybe if cult tries to induct mafia the mafia he tried to induct dies.
I'm thinking that is a reasonable possibility for what happens to Moogs.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

And in repsonse to ROs post: most mafias I've played have had night kills explained as well as lots of hints in the flavour text. Not having the roles of people who died at night revealed is very uncommon- in the onesI've plyed anyway.

[Ravashak]

First, the lynch. Snake's the Peacemaker, does anyone have some light to shed on what that is? Due to him also being the mayor, I assume it's the same as the mayor in the last game, the ability to decide who gets lynched (or daykill, I guess).
Second thing, the money changing hands. I can think of 2 scenarios for this.
My first idea: Someone has an invisible vote. This means a vote not made in the thread (I checked all votes that were done by throughout the thread, and the last vote count was accurate). If this replaces their normal vote, the candidates for this ability (for lack of better word) are:
1. Fenris (dead),
5. Viridis,
8. Karesh (though that was due to unvote, here (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showpost.php?p=1163456&postcount=81) Karesh' vote was counted, possible change from public to private vote, though),
11. Geminex,
13. BahamutFlare,
14. greed

The second option is that someone has a (one time?) ability to buy an extra vote. Because we know that it was very close between Snake and Aldurin, with the Secret vote making sure Snake got lynched (it would've been a tie if Moogle was 1 minute faster). This raises supsicion on those voting for Snake, because others could've voted themselves without drawing excessive suspicion:
9. Revolving Ocelot
10. Aldurin
12. Inbred Chocobo
15. Smarty McBarrelpants
18. rpgdemon

The next question is, why? The Secret vote got cast after Snake stated his intent to go inactive, which effectively removed him from the game already. The only other thing it could achieve was to prevent the lynch of Aldurin. Why would anyone try to save Aldurin? Because they're convinved he's town ór they know he's fellow scum.

______

On to the night actions.
I think we can agree that Fenris had a night kill role, presumably the SK. This will leave two night kills remaining, barring role blocking and protecting. The problem now, I feel, is that we do not know which type of killing to pursue most, since we do not know which was the mafia's, and which the vig's (again, assuming that the child with the propellor beanie with a bloody knife was the SK). Then there's Moogle's suicide. I highly doubt he wanted to leave the game, he was getting more active near the end of the day. I'm not too familiar with cult mechanics, but the theory that's given earlier, that it might have been a mafia / cult interaction could work. Undecided so far on this.

Something to note about the night killings, 2 out of 3 of them (3 out of 4 if you count Moogle's suicide) killed someone that was voting (or intending, damn that one minute, eh Moogle xP) for Aldurin. Combine this with what I said about the day, that it seemed that people actively tried to save Aldurin, leads me to believe that we have a mafia with powers, of which Aldurin has an important role.

(This also leads me to believe that the gunshot was the Vigilante)

_____

This is how I interpreted the info we were given over the night. Feel free to call me an idiot and explain why I'm wrong on oh so many counts, but until someone brings something that convinces me otherwise, I'll stick to:

Vote: Aldurin

[Geminex]

I wasn't concerned with "is he actually mafia", because the whole shitstorm on Day 1 was terrible and made me rethink my participation in the game. Threats of banning Mafia games aren't cool, and I hear it's been banned in the past before.
There's other ways to solve this. You could've talked to him. You could've talked to bookie. But ultimately, I'm not criticizing the snake lynch. I mean, I could've tried harder to stop it, certainly.

Nah, what I FOS'd you for was suggesting that you wouldn't mind policy-lynching sifright as well. That is horribly counterproductive and scummy. So let's not do that.

just saying I didn't think that maybe if cult tries to induct mafia the mafia he tried to induct dies.
I'm thinking that is a reasonable possibility for what happens to Moogs.
I'm still kinda doubtful of this, because I don't think the suicide flavor text fits that kind of scenario, but okays. Let's go with this.

Two implications: First, we have a cult. Fuck.
Second, Moogle was mafia. Yay!
Unfortunately, he was pretty damn inactive. He had his little clash with bard, and did his last-minute-earl-vote. We can't really glean much from that.

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I'm not sure which of those two options is the correct one... but I honestly think it might be the latter, just because of all the other earl-related shenanigans that have gone on. And if we assume that moogle's vote wasn't sincere, that pretty much confirms earl as mafiate.

Mind you, that's based on two hypotheticals, but still. What do you guys think about this?

And rav, in regards to the secret vote, given the flavor text, I don't think it'd make sense for it to be anything other than an extra vote someone gets.

[rpgdemon]

I agree with Sif that RO's suggestion is crazy scummy.

My other question stems from Smarty's complaints about calling the kills as being done by SK, etc, and then sudden turn to calling them that when he's called out on it. RO is propping up the claim that Smarty started calling the kills by role, when he was originally like, "Prove that it's the vig, who took out the SK!"

While being suspicious of immediate claims is good and all, that wasn't really suspicions, so much as "Hey, look, I'm voicing concern with your plan, give me proof of who the Vig is, oh, wait, you think it's suspicious? Just kidding!"

I also think it's conceivable that Fenris hit a bomb, and died because of that, just to throw it out there.

Not gonna be around today. Got a ton I need to get done.

[rpgdemon]

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I think that's actually against the rules, so if that's an active strategy people are employing, you're not supposed to post past the deadline at all, says the rulespost.

As for secret vote, I think the logic above is sound, but there could also be a third party who didn't vote for Snake/Aldurin, who wanted to throw the vote for whatever reason, but not reveal their hand. Dunno what this would accomplish though.

[Inbred Chocobo]

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I'm not sure which of those two options is the correct one... but I honestly think it might be the latter, just because of all the other earl-related shenanigans that have gone on. And if we assume that moogle's vote wasn't sincere, that pretty much confirms earl as mafiate.

The thing was that Snake had 6 votes on him, Ald had 4. Moogle was trying to swap his vote so they both had 5, and if they did when the day ended, then no lynch would've happened. So I believe that was Moogle's motivation for voting for that target, nothing else.

As for why we can't see roles, my bet is on a mafia member that has the role where night-kills don't reveal who the person is. Means if we lynch em of vigilante gets lucky they will start popping up, but yeah, makes this a bit difficult.

By the way, a tribly is basically a fedora, which was what Moogle was wearing. That makes him a mafian. Considering he suicided, then most likely cult tried to get him and he killed himself. The cult absorbing the mafia pretty much means insta-win for them.

What I find interesting is that Aldurin had his house broken into. That just strikes me as really odd. My guess? Investigation of some kind, or possibly a roleblocker targetted him. I'm not sure what this means yet, I need more time to brew. To be honest though, I keep having more and more doubts he is scum.

The only thing I can really find that Moogle did that may mean anything was a joke vote on P-sleazy. I've made it a mission before to get into a heated arguement when I was scum with a fellow scum to make no connection appear between us, maybe a possible link there, but unsure of.

So for now,

Vote: P-sleazy.

[Sifright]

I also think it's conceivable that Fenris hit a bomb, and died because of that, just to throw it out there.


I doubt this, the post clearly states he was shot in the back after he murdered Kerensky, some one specifically targeted fenris the flavor text would have been different if kerensky was a bomb as it would imply that kerensky was some how responsible for his death.


Same activity-kicking rules apply to Snake as anyone else, unless he comes back in here and still wants to quit, which I am hoping he doesn't after cooling off. Incidentally, while I am not actually going to tell you not to policy lynch, trying to do so on Snake for getting overly pissed off at the whole argument is the sort of thing that strikes me as inspiring even more vitriol (and no, this is not telling you to take your votes off Snake, or put them on him, or whatever).

Vote Count

Solid Snake - 6
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot
IC
Smarty
SECRET

Aldurin - 5
Ravashak
Kerensky
Bard
Sifright
Gregness

Karesh - 3
P-Sleazy
Hawk
Snake

Bard - 1
Moogle

P-Sleazy - 1
Shyria

11 to lynch. ~5 hours left. Crunch time, folks.


So moogle moving his vote would have put the voting situation to 6/6 with a tie breaker needed.




The thing was that Snake had 6 votes on him, Ald had 4. Moogle was trying to swap his vote so they both had 5, and if they did when the day ended, then no lynch would've happened. So I believe that was Moogle's motivation for voting for that target, nothing else.


Nope this information is completely incorrect, could be a mistake or it could be you trying to rewrite past events.

Minor FOS: inbred chocobo

Your theory on night kill information is really weird as well unless you have outside knowledge there is no reason to suspect killing a certain target will give us that knowledge, which again more suspicion like the only way you could know that or think that would be the case is if your mafia or shooting in the dark utterly and throwing anything out there.

Also When a vote is tied we go into tiebreaker mode and others could have changed their vote to either Aldurin or snake.

Your attempt to use a joke vote to justify a lynch on p-sleazy is just bizarre and makes me question if you are town affiliated further.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today.
I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today.
I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.

I'm leaning toward PO. But either is certainly a possibility.

That said, I don't think it's a likely possibility. There's not been much evidence that the Mafia possess extra powers thus far.
FOS: Aldurin.
For the time being that's all I do, I believe it was the PO who broke into his house, and that means Al is confirmed either way to our town. If he survives long enough to maintain a list of his investigations Al will be an easy target.

After the huge stink it caused for me yesterday I'm hesitant to act further this early, but the gears are turning. I feel it fair to say we've made some strides toward victory with this night.

[Moogle0119]

I regret nothing! [/death post]

[Sifright]

Unvote:Aldurin

Unless, the PO will have him on his list now if he is a mafia member so targeting him would actually be silly thinking about it. Next highest on my potential scum list is revolving ocelot for suggesting another policy lynch.

Vote:Revolving Ocelot

Karesh rates quite highly for speaking up for aldurin during day 1 and Inbred chocobo for flawed recall of past events and bizarre theories on how night information is handled.

FOS: Karesh
FOS: Inbred Chocobo

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Karesh rates quite highly for speaking up for aldurin during day 1 and Inbred chocobo for flawed recall of past events and bizarre theories on how night information is handled.

FOS: Karesh
FOS: Inbred Chocobo

I hate to draw on precedent again but I defend damn near everybody. I try to make sure every option and possibility is presented as openly as possible to keep people thinking. Hell, if it means getting people to think more I'll even attack my own innocence with those thoughts.

But nonetheless, I do not believe Aldurin is scum at this point. Until such time as he presents more suspicious activity or the PO confirms him as such I'll continue to defend him.

[greed]

First, the lynch. Snake's the Peacemaker, does anyone have some light to shed on what that is? Due to him also being the mayor, I assume it's the same as the mayor in the last game, the ability to decide who gets lynched (or daykill, I guess).
Second thing, the money changing hands. I can think of 2 scenarios for this.
My first idea: Someone has an invisible vote. This means a vote not made in the thread (I checked all votes that were done by throughout the thread, and the last vote count was accurate). If this replaces their normal vote, the candidates for this ability (for lack of better word) are:
1. Fenris (dead),
5. Viridis,
8. Karesh (though that was due to unvote, here (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showpost.php?p=1163456&postcount=81) Karesh' vote was counted, possible change from public to private vote, though),
11. Geminex,
13. BahamutFlare,
14. greed

The second option is that someone has a (one time?) ability to buy an extra vote. Because we know that it was very close between Snake and Aldurin, with the Secret vote making sure Snake got lynched (it would've been a tie if Moogle was 1 minute faster). This raises supsicion on those voting for Snake, because others could've voted themselves without drawing excessive suspicion:
9. Revolving Ocelot
10. Aldurin
12. Inbred Chocobo
15. Smarty McBarrelpants
18. rpgdemon

The next question is, why? The Secret vote got cast after Snake stated his intent to go inactive, which effectively removed him from the game already. The only other thing it could achieve was to prevent the lynch of Aldurin. Why would anyone try to save Aldurin? Because they're convinved he's town ór they know he's fellow scum.

______

On to the night actions.
I think we can agree that Fenris had a night kill role, presumably the SK. This will leave two night kills remaining, barring role blocking and protecting. The problem now, I feel, is that we do not know which type of killing to pursue most, since we do not know which was the mafia's, and which the vig's (again, assuming that the child with the propellor beanie with a bloody knife was the SK). Then there's Moogle's suicide. I highly doubt he wanted to leave the game, he was getting more active near the end of the day. I'm not too familiar with cult mechanics, but the theory that's given earlier, that it might have been a mafia / cult interaction could work. Undecided so far on this.

Something to note about the night killings, 2 out of 3 of them (3 out of 4 if you count Moogle's suicide) killed someone that was voting (or intending, damn that one minute, eh Moogle xP) for Aldurin. Combine this with what I said about the day, that it seemed that people actively tried to save Aldurin, leads me to believe that we have a mafia with powers, of which Aldurin has an important role.

(This also leads me to believe that the gunshot was the Vigilante)

_____

This is how I interpreted the info we were given over the night. Feel free to call me an idiot and explain why I'm wrong on oh so many counts, but until someone brings something that convinces me otherwise, I'll stick to:

Vote: Aldurin

I agree with most of this and am currently weighing up whether to vote Aldurin for it or to vote RO for his pretty drat scummy suggestion of a second policy lynch. That's almost as bad as trying to keep random voting going on day 2 it is not good for the town.

On Aldurin though there's one thing you maybe missed. He could have had the power himself as you said, but if I had a (once off?) double vote and was that close to being lynched I might try and make certain I was safe. Aldrurin has in the past shown a tendency to use his powers (admittedly here it was smart if overcautious in hindsight). This doesn't rule out him being mafia but just saying there is a townie explanation.

The green colour of the secret vote also suggests that if he did it, he might be self aligned, red is usually mafia, purple usually cult and green and blue are common for self aligned roles and rarely Masons or second mafias (though this game seems a bit small for multiple mafias, and the night actions support a traditional one mafia, one SK, one vig kill role makeup). The power does seem sort of mason like though. But as we haven't lynched any confirmed mafiates or cultists we don't know the colours Bookie's using outside of the traditional townie yellow. And of course the green may just be a reference to the money changing hands in the fluff and not be anyone's actual faction colour, though that seems unlikely.

As things are I am open to voting either RO or Aldurin, but for now I will vote Revolving Ocelot because he seems more definitely scummy whereas I think Aldurin's more likely self aligned with chances of being scum or a mason, in which case he can probably wait til some mafia or cult die. If we lynch someone other than Aldurin and they turn up with green text, we can lynch his ass right fast cause that will mean someone other than him did the green text action, and if that's true he's probably not self aligned, otherwise they wouldn't have saved him.

Well unless they're masons.

But the main point is I think Aldurin is something, but is most likely neutral rather than an immediate threat whereas RO seems more like full blown scum.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

The green colour of the secret vote also suggests that if he did it, he might be self aligned, red is usually mafia, purple usually cult and green and blue are common for self aligned roles and rarely Masons or second mafias (though this game seems a bit small for multiple mafias, and the night actions support a traditional one mafia, one SK, one vig kill role makeup). The power does seem sort of mason like though. But as we haven't lynched any confirmed mafiates or cultists we don't know the colours Bookie's using outside of the traditional townie yellow. And of course the green may just be a reference to the money changing hands in the fluff and not be anyone's actual faction colour, though that seems unlikely.

You know I hadn't considered the color. You're right, the money itself changed hands in green. That makes it less likely to be a town role, but I'm not prepared to quite rule out the possibility of a theoretical mason group that has green.
Even still, lets operate under the far more likely assumption that the Secret vote was some sort of scum, whether it be self aligned or a mafia group an extra vote is pretty weak as far as powers go. So, yeah. The focus should be elsewhere for the time being. If Al proves scum through the investigation then he's an easy enough target. If the game got to the point that a secret vote saved him at that stage, then we'd be pretty screwed anyway.

And of course the possibility of an inactive, whether he be scum or town is using a secret vote to act without getting involved in the politics of voting.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Also hesitant to vote RO at the moment. Gonna wait for his responses to the accusation before rendering judgement on that field.

[Kerensky287]

I regret EVERYTHING! /deathpost

[greed]

Realised I forgot to vote, but decided not to, to give RO time to explain himself. If someone has the ability to fuck with voting, we should be careful about starting lynch trains quickly even if we have a good idea who is doing it.

For now


FoS: Revolving Ocelot

[Aldurin]

I am honestly surprised that I'm still alive at day 2. I was certain I would be lynched or nightkilled immediately.

First of all, I am surprised but grateful to whoever used their secret vote to save me. The flavor text bothers me though since it would indicate that the voter isn't town aligned.

And I need to stop voting stupid. I would assume the peacemaker role would allow Snake to stop a lynch before the end of the day (in case it'd cause someone he thought was a townie to die), I don't really see peacemaker meaning "forced lynch".

I feel that Ravashak's analysis of the secret vote is flawed, since he's assuming only one of the people that voted for me or Snake used it, while ignoring the fact that it could also be any of the other minority votes. Point is that anyone could have the secret vote power and its use in yesterday's lynch was not necessarily helpful in identifying anyone.

I don't mind the investigation, if it will eventually prove that I'm town to you guys (I'm hoping that's an investigation).

For today's vote, for now I have to agree that RO's behavior does read scum.

Vote: Revolving Ocelot

FoS: Sifright

I don't get why you are so adamant about voting for me still even though we're getting some better leads. You could very well be town but overtaken by the desire to lynch me, but you could also be scum, trying to hide among the rest of the original bandwagon against me so you look good for voting out a very suspicious townie. I don't like it.

[Aldurin]

Realised I forgot to vote, but decided not to, to give RO time to explain himself. If someone has the ability to fuck with voting, we should be careful about starting lynch trains quickly even if we have a good idea who is doing it.

For now


FoS: Revolving Ocelot

Just noticed that.

Unvote: Revolving Ocelot

FoS: Revolving Ocelot

It probably is a good idea to avoid building up a large votecount until we're sure of who we want to lynch.

[rpgdemon]

As a thought, it's entirely possible that the secret voter (If scum) just figured that Aldurin was less likely to mess up their plan than Snake. Like, If Snake was around but Aldurin got lynched, there's one less easy target available that the town would go for, instead of the voter.

This falls apart though, when you consider that Snake had said that he was quitting.

[Geminex]

I don't get why you are so adamant about voting for me still even though we're getting some better leads.

You wonder why people are still suspicous of you? Try 'agression towards other players', 'attempting to give the PO instructions' and 'multiple conflicting roleclaims'. How many other players have done all that? Cause I can't think of any better leads right now. I'm not saying you're definitely scum, not even sure if I'll vote for you today. But suggesting that you don't, in fact, smell as fishy as smörgasbord honestly seems kinda insulting. I mean, yes, scum might be voting for you. But so could a perfectly logically-thinking townie.

Just to make my point, FOS: Earl

Also, in regards to the color, I don't think it necessarily means an extra. I mean, putting myself in bookie's shoes, he was trying to link the secret vote to the "money changing hands" flavor text. Could still have been a Townie or Mafiate that did that.

Also, IC, not quite sure what you're saying here:
The thing was that Snake had 6 votes on him, Ald had 4. Moogle was trying to swap his vote so they both had 5, and if they did when the day ended, then no lynch would've happened. So I believe that was Moogle's motivation for voting for that target, nothing else.
Moogle was trying to swap his vote, to create a tiebreak. A lynch would've still happened eventually, though, and by creating the tiebreak, moogle would've risked hitting earl with it. That wouldn't make sense if both earl and moogle are scum. So either one of them isn't scum, or they are both scum, and moogle posted his vote-change late intentionally, in order to give the illusion that he wanted to vote for earl.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Moogle was trying to swap his vote, to create a tiebreak. A lynch would've still happened eventually, though, and by creating the tiebreak, moogle would've risked hitting earl with it. That wouldn't make sense if both earl and moogle are scum. So either one of them isn't scum, or they are both scum, and moogle posted his vote-change late intentionally, in order to give the illusion that he wanted to vote for earl.

I think we can rule that out. They happened at the same moment, so Moogle would need to have been sitting there patiently refreshing for lord knows how long to get it that close.

[Geminex]

How do you know it was in the same moment? it was teh same minute, we know that. But Bookie was counting down. All moogle would have needed to do is write out the message 5 minutes ahead of time, then previewed the post until he saw that bookie had posted.

I mean, it takes a bit of effort, but it's totally possible. Not saying that is was it, but it's not outside of the realm of the practical.

[Ravashak]

Well, it definately wouldn't be impossible. Bookworm did give 5 hour (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showpost.php?p=1164403&postcount=287), an 1 ½ hour (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showpost.php?p=1164415&postcount=289), a 10 minute (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showpost.php?p=1164438&postcount=299) ánd a 7 minute (http://www.nuklearforums.com/showpost.php?p=1164444&postcount=304) notice.

[BahamutFlare]

Ok. Back from my weekend trip. A lot has happened I see.

IC, I have a question. The joke voting on P-Sleazy almost got out of hand. And Moogle wanted to joke vote for him. You think this may be a plot of some kind? Whenever the joke votes started getting out of control, he unvoted P-Sleazy right? I think I could see this as a plot to make P-Sleazy seem innocent, and if P-Sleazy doesn't start making some actual contributions, I see him as being anti-town. On this note, I'm still curious of Shyria. Nothing good has come from him/her.

While I see Aldurin and Revolving Ocelot as slightly suspicious, I'm looking at the remaining 13 people for who is suspicious more. Let's say that we kill Aldurin and Revolving Ocelot. We need more leads. With Aldurin, I was pretty sure he was scum, but his house got broken into. If he was scum, does anyone think that maybe he would've been called out on it? On second thought, the best bet would be for the person who investigated to drop slight hints to vote for Aldurin if he was scum. That way he wouldn't be revealed.

Later on, I'm going to study a few more people and see how helpful they have been. Also, going to see if anyone has been adamant about an Aldurin vote. If no one is adamant, I suspect Aldurin to be town.

[BahamutFlare]

Anyone think that since the Mayor is dead, the secret vote won't come up anymore? Who does the money go to switch hands?

[Inbred Chocobo]

Okay, looking back, it appears that I miscounted the vote, so it wouldn't have been a tie breaker, it would've been a lynch on Aldurin instead if Moogle's swap at the last minute was successful. ( I missed Kerensky's vote on Aldurin ). That changes things a bit, but what does that mean exactly for Aldurin, its hard to say. Considering it would've been a garunteed kill at the last minute, I could see Ald being innocent. The timing about that post is the oddest part. Yes there were warning messages, but everyone was bickering what to do about it, so I could see both hesitation, bad timing, and intentional timing to slip that vote in the last minute.

The other forum where I played a few mafia games (known as wifom.net) I was in a mafia game with that exact role that as long as they were alive, night killed roles weren't revealed. Its the reason why I brought it up.

Also, most games I have played the role Mayor has the ability to vote twice. It sounds weird but considering Snake's behavior, I think that he used his power to vote for himself in his SNAKE RAGE point of time and left it at that. Could be mayor had other abilities like stopping a lynch or something and it truly was scum, but I don't think the secret vote is going to come up anymore.

I have to admit Shyria not posting at all is getting annoying, so something to monitor, but I could definitely seem the joke voting on P-Sleazy as a ploy as someone would take a look at who Moogle has voted for, and strike them off the list as well, what scum would vote for another one of their own? Still, its not concrete nail in the coffin, but P-sleazy himself isn't contributing anything, and its got me worried, as he doesn't share the same excuse and newbiness that Shyria does.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Here's some thoughts:
Aldurin- While suspicious I think it's a waste of a lynch right now. Operating on the assumption theat the PO broke into his house then when the PO roleclais later on in the ine we will know what Ald is for sure. Preempting the PO would be a bit of a waste. If the PO dies in the intervening time then we can lynch Ald but if there is a townie who knows for sure wgat Akd us we can leave him alive. FOr now anyway till we know more about the breakins.
I do consider the suggestion that Ald has the extra vote likely.

RO: Was his policy lynch suggestion serious? I'm having a hard time seeing it as such and if he was scum I really doubt he would propose and try to force it through cause it so ridiculously scummy. I think he was just pissed off at day 1

Snake's Role- Peacemaker? Some kind of Bodgyuard?
Mayor- usually have some kind of power over the lynch, either preventing lynches or foricng lynches

Karesh- Still not convinced he is scummy.

Sif- is throwing a lot of suspicion around on a lot of people. This is classic scum tactic to divide up the town debate and get everyone turning on each other.

Moogles voting-I don't think he purposefully waiting for the window to close but I don't think it matters because mafia should be able to win a tiebreak because they are the only not iffy people int he tiebreak. The question is his motives? Could be to protect Aldurin, could be they wanted to keep snake around as a distraction, could be they just wanted to get brownie points. This is all on Aldurin who I not sure is best lynch as i said above

Shyria- No posts- cno read, someone to bump of at some point
P-Sleazy- I think this is the best move. P-Sleazy isn't postng a lot, we don't have a lot of info to work with and scum often joke vote each other playfully. moogle did unvote him when that train got some votes.
Vote: P-Sleazy

[Revising Ocelot]

What accusation are people talking about? If it's the "half-tempted to vote policy lynch Sifright" thing, note the words half-tempted. Not even fully tempted, which even then wouldn't equate to a vote. I hold him in equal disdain as Snake for the Day 1 crap, but that doesn't result in wanting to get rid of him now. As people have said, it doesn't serve a purpose now.


Onto other matters... call it a habit, but after the "spot the inactives" scheme sort-of worked in the MLP Mafia, I'm now wondering what's up with Shryia and P-Sleazy. And I should stop agreeing with Smarty, or else I'll continue to overlook that "McHathater" in his name which Booky doesn't want to change. HMMMM.

[Mr.Bookworm]

I'm now wondering what's up with Shryia and P-Sleazy. And I should stop agreeing with Smarty, or else I'll continue to overlook that "McHathater" in his name which Booky doesn't want to change. HMMMM.

Shyria apparently got really busy really quick, so she asked me to find a replacement for her, which I am doing.

McHathater was a joke that got copy-pasted over from the recruitment thread that I never bothered to change back (I'll do that now, actually).

Vote Count

P-sleazy - 2
IC
Smarty

Revolving Ocelot - 1
Sifright

Aldurin - 1
Ravashak

9 to lynch. ~82 hours left.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Amongst our suspicious folk I have to say P-Sleazy gets a big mark for making me seem so suspicious on Day 1, and for voting for me.
Still, I'll wait for his defense and act accordingly then.

[Aldurin]

Amongst our suspicious folk I have to say P-Sleazy gets a big mark for making me seem so suspicious on Day 1, and for voting for me.
Still, I'll wait for his defense and act accordingly then.

*Karesh waits until endgame*

[Geminex]

Okay, bedtime. I'm still not sure about earl, but what people are saying makes sense. If he really did get investigated, then we'll know sooner or later. And I guess we can afford to wait.

I'll let the RO thing lie for now as well. Other than the policy lynch thing, he hasn't been too scummy.

I'm interested in p-sleazy. Both IC and Smarty seem to think he's a good candidate. And the association with moogle is something I'd failed to notice up till now. But even considering that, and the inactivity, the case against him doesn't seem strong enough to warrant a lynch yet. Do we have anything else implicating him?

FOS: p-sleazy

[Sifright]

Sif- is throwing a lot of suspicion around on a lot of people. This is classic scum tactic to divide up the town debate and get everyone turning on each other.


Some what confused by this, how am I performing a scum tactic when I am doing the same thing every one else is doing? Looking at peoples posts and explaining what I think makes them come across as scummy? Am I supposed to sit back and not do anything at all? Any way going to bed, 14 hour work days are really kicking the shit out of me.

*shakes his fist at the UK public transport system*

[P-Sleazy]

The only thing I can really find that Moogle did that may mean anything was a joke vote on P-sleazy. I've made it a mission before to get into a heated arguement when I was scum with a fellow scum to make no connection appear between us, maybe a possible link there, but unsure of.

So for now,

Vote: P-sleazy.

Hey! Me and you did that way back when.

Also, I resent that. I was too focused on Karesh's joke claim to be bothered with Moogle. If what you're saying is true of getting into heated arguements with people, and I did indeed do that, then it would have been me and Karesh, not me and Moogle this game.

VOTE: Inbred Chocobo

For not paying attention to what I did all day 1.

[BahamutFlare]

Honestly, I gave ample time for P-Sleazy to actually contribute something.

Vote: P-Sleazy

If a more suspicious person comes along, then I'll probably switch, but you just haven't made any contribution...even now.

Also, wasn't Snake throwing around a lot of suspicion? It was to create talk so we could figure out some more hints. Saying Sif is scum because he's doing what a lot of us are doing and a confirmed townie did most of all is just silly. I don't see any validity in your argument, Smarty.

[Sifright]

Unvote:Revolving Ocelot

Vote:Geminex

Role I think he has Cult Leader

Play style changed dramatically from last game lots of what feels like faux insecurity lots of hedging about player roles especially the attempt to move thoughts away from my suggested cult-mafia interaction on moogle and suggesting moogle had a suicide role despite the fact that moogles death did nothing.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Ok so I finally got around to re-reading the thread a bit, but it hasn't really helped me. All I've got so far is really small suspicions on multiple people.

I still don't like Aldurins "Bookie gave me a shit role" claim, because let's face it, that's bullshit. Though he was apparantly investigated and (maybe) turned up clean, so we can wait on that a bit.

Kareshs' strange roleclaims early on still bug me, but he's not done anything else too obviously scummy.

RO made that policy lynch comment, which is a terrible idea, especially seeing as how a lot of the people who voted for Snake were making it a policy lynch, even after he said he was leaving the game, which wasted a lynch and did so on poor logic. As such I am apposed to even the slightest hint of policy lynching, though again, that's the only thing I have to go on for RO.

I also have suspicions for everyone who stayed on Snake even after he said he was leaving, for the same reasons.

IC made a comment that he's suspicious of P-Sleazy because Moogle voted for him in what IC describes as an attempt to start an argument with a fellow scum, to throw suspicion off the other, but Sleazy made no response to Moogle at all, so that logic completely falls apart right there. People have been voting for each other all over the place and it doesn't mean scum are trying to set up fake arguments, whether they respond or not. But there was no discussion between Moogle and Sleazy anyway so I dunno what the hell IC is trying to imply there.

We also have no way to really determine what was up with Moogles suicide, whether it's some wierd role power or a cult leader who got killed trying to convert a mafiate, so trying to determine a connection between him and Sleazy is gona be tricky.

And finally, P-Sleazy, who as far as I can tell has done pretty much nothing all game and has barely even tried to defend himself and has mostly made joke posts all round.

I'm also not sure if mentioning the fact that you have a history of setting up arguments with fellow scumates is a brilliant scum tactic or not, because nobody would expect you to actually do that if you then went and did it and by his own admission him and IC have a history of that and he would have done it with Karesh if he was going to. And yes I realise how convoluted and implausible that sounds, but that's why it's brilliant.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Sif totally jumped me on a suspicion I've had for a while re: Gem is CL.
I don' thave all my notes at work so I'll fill it in later but this is the basic gist of the argument.
Gem has spent a lot of the game backing up and prodding for information- basically buddying up with some of the more vocal players- me particularly. This is an excellent strategy for the CL and does not seem like Gems style. The CL also targetted a low activity player last night which would fit if Gem was hiding behind the high actives. In addition there was his moogle stuff.
I don't think Gem is mafia for various reasons which I have in my notes but I can't remember why off hand.
But my problem is its just a massive hunch, that's why I didn't want to bring it up. I was waiting for most posts from Gem to see if I could pin anything down. But Sif has blown that up now I guess.
As it stands I have a pretty massive hunch that Gem is CL but its mostly a hunch. When I go home I'll fill in a bit more details but the argument is basically waht I've outlined.

[Sifright]

Sif totally jumped me on a suspicion I've had for a while re: Gem is CL.
I don' thave all my notes at work so I'll fill it in later but this is the basic gist of the argument.
Gem has spent a lot of the game backing up and prodding for information- basically buddying up with some of the more vocal players- me particularly. This is an excellent strategy for the CL and does not seem like Gems style. The CL also targetted a low activity player last night which would fit if Gem was hiding behind the high actives. In addition there was his moogle stuff.
I don't think Gem is mafia for various reasons which I have in my notes but I can't remember why off hand.
But my problem is its just a massive hunch, that's why I didn't want to bring it up. I was waiting for most posts from Gem to see if I could pin anything down. But Sif has blown that up now I guess.
As it stands I have a pretty massive hunch that Gem is CL but its mostly a hunch. When I go home I'll fill in a bit more details but the argument is basically waht I've outlined.

Basically given what I've seen of gems actions they make the most sense when viewed from the perspective of a cult leader, I don't know if he would slip up and truly give us info to nail him with but I think hoping for large tells which give him away is well not exactly 'foolish' but a little to optimistic. There is enough for me to be satisfied with voting for him on a lynch but only because he is the only candidate I can see for cult leader and CL surviving into day 3 and beyond would be pretty much terrible for town hence my urge to try and out him how ever prematurely.

[rpgdemon]

I'll be honest, I don't know what tells you if someone is culty or not. The only game we had a cult in, they were all killed off N1.

The thing is though, I think the cult is scary, since they can get powerful, instead of just leaving the town weakened. And people want to react to that. But I'm holding off on actually voting yet, since you guys have just sort of gone, "Well, he's culty by acting like a culty dude." If there's reason to believe that he's cult, I'd like to know it, but until then, you guys could be "independently" verifying that, "Man, he's a cult dude.", while being the cult yourself.

I have no idea about that whole thing though, so I'm not gonna vote based off of it. RO, on the other hand, is lighting up almost as much as Aldurin. The fact that he wanted the town to throw away a lynch is really suspicious.

[Sifright]

I'll be honest, I don't know what tells you if someone is culty or not. The only game we had a cult in, they were all killed off N1.

The thing is though, I think the cult is scary, since they can get powerful, instead of just leaving the town weakened. And people want to react to that. But I'm holding off on actually voting yet, since you guys have just sort of gone, "Well, he's culty by acting like a culty dude." If there's reason to believe that he's cult, I'd like to know it, but until then, you guys could be "independently" verifying that, "Man, he's a cult dude.", while being the cult yourself.

I have no idea about that whole thing though, so I'm not gonna vote based off of it. RO, on the other hand, is lighting up almost as much as Aldurin. The fact that he wanted the town to throw away a lynch is really suspicious.

Understandable, Let me clarify my position then with some quotes from Geminex plus my analysis of them afterwards. To begin with let's show the Night 1 post again

As the day dawns, you wake up to a string of grisly murders and crimes.

A child wearing a propeller beanie was shot in the head from behind, and was found holding a bloody knife. He was found lying next to the body of a woman in a sunhat, brutally stabbed to death by the child.

A man wearing a trilby was later seen standing on top of the bridge, before jumping off. His trilby later washed ashore, and he is presumed dead.

A man wearing goggles was found in his home/laboratory on the edge of town, in several pieces, hacked to death.

In addition, there was a break-in at the home of Aldurin, although nothing appears to have been taken.

Fenris (shot to death), Kerensky (stabbed to death), Moogle (suicide), and Bard (hacked to death) are DEAD.

Night 1 over, Day 2 start. 9 to lynch.

From this we can see that a player randomly suicided (Moogle), We don't have knowledge of his role or alignment but there are a few things we can tell straight away firstly the suicide hasn't caused any other effects at least for the first night.

My post nearly immediately afterwards shows my thoughts on what the night flavor text amounts to, ofcourse I could be wrong but I don't believe my analysis of the night flavor text to be in error. Fenris is clearly the SK as a child murderer certainly doesn't fit MO of the Mafia nor in truth of the Vigilante. The next kill we have is Fenris being shot in the back Initially my thoughts were it could be either the Mafia or the Vigilante however the next kill on Bard nixed that thought as the Mafia have in the past performed murders in exactly that manner slicing and hacking the corpse into pieces is an effective scare tactic and was used by the Mafia in real life in the past.

Moogles death/suicide at first came as a bit of a shock to me as I didn't see what could have caused it how ever on reflection I realized that if there is a cult and that they could recruit Mafia then the cult would very quickly grow to powerful so instead of recruiting mafia players the cult leader instead kills Mafia players.

Now we come to where I start to get some evidence for my thoughts on Geminex being the cult leader.

Pity about moogle. Waste of a good trilby hat, that. I guess his night 1 death was part of his role, though? And he had to avoid arousing suspicion? He did that fairly well, so well done moogle.
...
I'm assuming that he is dead? According to the flavor text, we only find his hat. But even if he survived the fall, a man can't live without his hat, can he? : o

Bard. Scientist's goggles. Assuming he's town. Maybe an inventor of some sort? That's the closest thing I can think of that fits the scientist role. If so... well, fuck. Inventors are usually pretty strong, aren't they?
If Fen was our SK, then I guess it'd be safe to assume thar Bard got hacked to death by the mafia. If so, any idea why that would've happened? Bard didn't seem like a particularly agressive player, at all. All he really did was call moogle and earl suspicious. But Moogle was suicidal and I think pretty much everyone has called earl suspcious.

First let's look at his couple of line, he tries to paint moogles death as part of his role and congratulates him on his success in avoiding suspicion day 1. This flagged Gem up for me pretty quickly. One we don't have any information on Moogles actual role and two his attempt to paint Moogles role as a suicide one doesn't make much sense on the face of it. Moving more odd hedging and floundering about whether he is alive or not. Personally I think this part of his post amounts to jokey fluff not much in the way of a tell but being day 2 any jokey posts are little suspicious as things are much more serious now. The end of his post calling Moogle suicidal again as if it were part of his role.


Huh. But why would the flavor text for that be suicide? I mean, I agree that there's probably a cult, and that maybe mafiates do die when they get recruited (to prevent the mafiate from betraying his allies). But why suicide?

Checking mafiascum right now, and apparently suicidal roles exist, while being uncommon. So... why not suicidal?

The suicidal roles shown in mafiascum wiki are bombs used to target other players taking them selves out along with their target. I've not seen any roles on that wiki that kill theselves and do nothing else. This was the second medium tell for me about Geminex. So this is the reason I am voting for him along with his other minor tells. Outside of what I've said already the largest of his scum tells his is wildly divergent play style/tactics from last game.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Sif, while you raise some interesting points regarding Geminexs posts, there IS a suicide role that simply causes the death of the player at a determined time. I think it was Gem who even posted it here before, but I'll link it again in case it slipped anyone by;

Suicidal (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Suicidal)

A Suicidal player will passively commit suicide when a certain time-based trigger occurs. The most common instance of this is the Suicidal Townie, which will passively die Night 1. There is nothing that can be done to stop a Suicidal player from dying at the designated time.

This can either be a post count (after 24 posts have been made) or at a certain phase (Night 2).

So it is ENTIRELY possible that Moogle was given a pointless suicide role. It is also equally likely that Moogle was the cult leader and he attempted to convert a mafiate, and thus died hiself. That's usually how cults work with regards to mafia conversions. Both are possible here.

Also thinking from a cult perspective, if Geminex was the cult leader, why would he propose that somebody whose death looks like a possible cult leader death is in fact a suicidal role? Surely if he was cult leader himself he would propose that the cult leader has died, thus making everyone think that the cult is gone and no longer a threat. That's some shaky logic man.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

I was comng at Gem as Cult Leader from a differnet angle- his tailing of other high profile players, getting them to take the bullets as it were, while also agreeing with them to prevent htem turnin gon him. Gem was playing beta dog strategy while he seems like an alpha type to me which is why I came at him as cleader- not much to do with day 2 moogle posts (didn't even occur to me till Sif posted).
Two of us came indepedentely on Gem for different reasons, that is reason to be suspicious.
But he hasn't posted uyet

[Sifright]

Sif, while you raise some interesting points regarding Geminexs posts, there IS a suicide role that simply causes the death of the player at a determined time. I think it was Gem who even posted it here before, but I'll link it again in case it slipped anyone by;

Suicidal (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Suicidal)





So it is ENTIRELY possible that Moogle was given a pointless suicide role. It is also equally likely that Moogle was the cult leader and he attempted to convert a mafiate, and thus died hiself. That's usually how cults work with regards to mafia conversions. Both are possible here.

Also thinking from a cult perspective, if Geminex was the cult leader, why would he propose that somebody whose death looks like a possible cult leader death is in fact a suicidal role? Surely if he was cult leader himself he would propose that the cult leader has died, thus making everyone think that the cult is gone and no longer a threat. That's some shaky logic man.

Well, I have to admit I didn't notice that. Does any one think Bookie would give out a role that is die night 1? If that was given to me I know I would have told bookie to go to hell...

It's not shakey logic because he was trying to skate by with out even showing the existence of the cult I first postulated the existence of the cult AFTER he said it was a suicide role after which He then tried to say it was more likely that the cult leader died doing that.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Ok yeah, going back and reading it again, I can see your point. He didn't even think of Moogles death as cult related so it looks odd in retrospect. To be fair, the fluff wasn't too revealing either and it did seem to imply Moogle as a suicidal.

Duno if the makes Gem culty or not though. If I was the cult leader and I saw somebody die like that, I'd have jumped on the chance to propose that the CL was dead, but then I read Sun Tzu. Appear weak when you are strong, appear strong when you are weak. If everybody thought the cult was dead, then they wouldn't be looking for any cult tells, which if you're the CL buys you the time you need to start winning.

[Sifright]

As the day dawns, you wake up to a string of grisly murders and crimes.

A child wearing a propeller beanie was shot in the head from behind, and was found holding a bloody knife. He was found lying next to the body of a woman in a sunhat, brutally stabbed to death by the child.

A man wearing a trilby was later seen standing on top of the bridge, before jumping off. His trilby later washed ashore, and he is presumed dead.

A man wearing goggles was found in his home/laboratory on the edge of town, in several pieces, hacked to death.

In addition, there was a break-in at the home of Aldurin, although nothing appears to have been taken.

Fenris (shot to death), Kerensky (stabbed to death), Moogle (suicide), and Bard (hacked to death) are DEAD.

Night 1 over, Day 2 start. 9 to lynch.

Night post

Okay, phew. This is interesting.

snake: Mayor in the Tricorne. Huh. Given that his lynch was mainly a policy lynch, from what I could tell, I'm not really surprised. Bad affair all 'round, I guess. But let's put that behind us.
The pertinent question, I think, is what did we lose? Anyone got any idea what a peacemaker does? Google isn't helping.

Fen: Beanie Kid.
First off, kudos to the vig for spotting this. I wouldn't have.
I'm thinking he might've been SK. I don't really have any evidence other than flavor, but a child wearing a propellor beanie and stabbing adults to death? That doesn't sound like a mafiate. That sounds like something out of Stephen King.

Don't really have much to say about Kerensky. Sounds like vanilla townie to me, honestly. Any idea why Fen would've targeted him?

Pity about moogle. Waste of a good trilby hat, that. I guess his night 1 death was part of his role, though? And he had to avoid arousing suspicion? He did that fairly well, so well done moogle.
...
I'm assuming that he is dead? According to the flavor text, we only find his hat. But even if he survived the fall, a man can't live without his hat, can he? : o

Bard. Scientist's goggles. Assuming he's town. Maybe an inventor of some sort? That's the closest thing I can think of that fits the scientist role. If so... well, fuck. Inventors are usually pretty strong, aren't they?
If Fen was our SK, then I guess it'd be safe to assume thar Bard got hacked to death by the mafia. If so, any idea why that would've happened? Bard didn't seem like a particularly agressive player, at all. All he really did was call moogle and earl suspicious. But Moogle was suicidal and I think pretty much everyone has called earl suspcious.

And speaking of earl... What's up with the break-in? I'm not quite sure, but I think that might be our version of the PO? It'd make sense, certainly. PO breaks in and looks for clues regarding alignment. Plus, it'd make sense for earl to get investigated, since he was pretty much the number 1 suspect.

Mind you, if this is how the PO works, then that's certainly... interesting. On the one hand, it'll make it a lot hader for scum to roleclaim. But on the other hand, it makes it a lot easier for scum to figure out who the PO actually is.

One final point: What's up with the bribery? Money changes hands, causing a secret vote. Is it just me, or does that seem a bit scummy? I mean, I get that some townies have multiple votes, but a secret vote? Plus, the bribery flavor text? Sounds like subversion of the democratic process to me.

First Gem post day 2

FOS: Smarty,

Fenris is clearly the SK and was taken out by the Vig I think that is so mind breakingly obvious questioning some one on that line thought is just silly

FOS: Aldurin
Made a vanilla roleclaim with what Karesh is describing as a joke post where he claims bookie told him as an incompetent player your only going to be nilla I call bullshit. wasn't night killed by Mafia either his post would have made the mafia really want him dead.

FOS: Karesh
Sticking up for aldurin, when having no real way to know if aldurin is town or not with some patchy logic of "It was a joke". Doesn't sit well with me so suspicion by proxy.

Vote: Aldurin

Moogles death, I'm unsure of he could have quit the game but I feel it's more likely that there is a cult in the game and that when they try to recruit mafia players they drop dead instead.

First Sif post day 2

Yeah, we're just stipulating on a basis of flavor text here, none of this is certain. But any basis for discussion is better than no basis. So okay.

Did you have any thoughts on the break-in? It seems like it could be the PO, to me, but I don't know how usual/unusual a PO with visible investigations is.


Huh. But why would the flavor text for that be suicide? I mean, I agree that there's probably a cult, and that maybe mafiates do die when they get recruited (to prevent the mafiate from betraying his allies). But why suicide?

Checking mafiascum right now, and apparently suicidal roles exist, while being uncommon. So... why not suicidal?

Third Gem post day 2 (2nd was very short)

Ok yeah, going back and reading it again, I can see your point. He didn't even think of Moogles death as cult related so it looks odd in retrospect. To be fair, the fluff wasn't too revealing either and it did seem to imply Moogle as a suicidal.

Duno if the makes Gem culty or not though. If I was the cult leader and I saw somebody die like that, I'd have jumped on the chance to propose that the CL was dead, but then I read Sun Tzu. Appear weak when you are strong, appear strong when you are weak. If everybody thought the cult was dead, then they wouldn't be looking for any cult tells, which if you're the CL buys you the time you need to start winning.


Well, the issue with that is going "The cult is dead" Is well how the hell do you know that? It would straight up bring suspicion because moogle flavor death doesn't tell you that it just says he committed suicide given that his suicide did nothing else and that I refuse to accept that bookie would give out a role which is "Lawl you get to die night one if you actually play" it's logical to presume there is something going on underneath that hence the cult mafia interaction thoughts I had.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

So... what do you think happened with Moogle then? Becuase I only see 2 possibilities; either he was a suicide role, or he was the CL who tried to attack a mafiate and died. You're saying it can't be the former, yet also saying Gem is the CL, so what does that make Moogle?

[Geminex]

Okay, this kinda... completely comes out of the left field.

In regards to playstyle, I honestly have to let you guys be the judge of that. I don't think that deviation from my previous bhavior is ground for suspicion, though. By all means, call my behavior into question, but if you say "His behavior now deviates from his behavior in the previous game!", then that isn't an accusation. It's a statement of the obvious. Playstyles change. People adapt to situations. And given that this is my second game, I don't think I have a "standard playstyle" to fall back on.

I guess I was a bit more hesitant in this day 1 than in the last, but that's mostly cause my D1 suspicions, with the exception of nikose were pretty wildly off-course. Plus, last game somebody thought I was being overagressive, and I thought I'd try surviving past D2 this time.

In regards to smarty... buddying up with the more vocal players? Really? I stayed away from your Snake lych in D1, though I didn't fight it too much, and I've already argued with you a few times during D2. Sure, I ended up agreeing with you sometimes, I genuinely thought your p-sleazy argument was interesting, and I gave in on the moogle argument just so we could make some headway. But that doesn't mean I'm hiding in your shadow. I make up my own mind, I'd be an idiot not to.

As for the moogle thing...
Seriously? I mean, not to diminish your sleuthing prowess, but I interpreted the data of the nightkill. It told us a player had committed suicide. I assumed that the suicidal player had the suicidal role, given that the situation matched the description of this role pretty exactly. I even posted a link (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Suicidal) to back up my argument, which you apparently didn't notice.

My point is, I'm not making wild, manipulative conjenctures here. I made the logical argument that the guy who commited suicide might have done that because he was suicidal. I don't see how you can consider that culty.

And you'll note that once people elaborated on their arguments a bit, I came to agree. Because that's what I try to do, find the most likely explanation for something. The trilby hat didn't fit into the "Suicidal" or the "Cultist" role, so I went along with the explanation that moogle was likely mafia. And given that assumption, the only real reason for mafia I could think of, was as a mechanism to avoid mafia recruitment by the cult.

Aaaand I just previewed, and you lot have been posting again.

He then tried to say it was more likely that the cult leader died doing that.
As for this, yes, this is another suggestion I made. I thought it was usual for the cult leader to die, rather than the culted mafiate. Given that the rules regulating a cult-mafia encounter are pretty shaky, I think that assumption was, at least initially, justified. I didn't hold it for awfully long.

As for smarty considering me an alpha, I'm flattered, but sceptical. I've made my own mind up. I drew a few obvious conclusions, a few less obvious ones, which I then argued quite willingly. If you guys made logical points, I gave in, if not, I upheld my argument. If I seem less sure to you, I think the situation in this game is a lot more murky than the last. And, again, most of what you've seen of me is D1, so far, and I think my holding back over there was justified.

I get that this is just a hunch for you. I just don't think it's a particularly good hunch.

As for Sifright's latest post, again. I was throwing options out there. When you guys made logical counter-arguments, I accepted those. I didn't go "THE CULT IS DEAD NOBODY ARGUE". I first assumed that moogle had been suicidal, which I thought was a reasonable assumption. When the cult-mafia interaction was brought up, I thought that it would make sense for the cultist to die, rather than the deadly mafiate. I suggested both possiblities, yes. But there's a difference between making an argument and trying to force an argument on others.

Also, think, when you quote multiple posts, that you could highlight the important bits?

[Geminex]

Also, Hawk, the assumption we're going with is that moogle was a mafiate, and that he suicided when the cult tried to recruit him. That's partly what we're basing our suspicions of p-sleazy around.

[Sifright]

So... what do you think happened with Moogle then? Becuase I only see 2 possibilities; either he was a suicide role, or he was the CL who tried to attack a mafiate and died. You're saying it can't be the former, yet also saying Gem is the CL, so what does that make Moogle?

Presumably he is mafia, I mean I can't know that for sure but it's the only way any of that makes sense to me.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I've never heard of that to be quite honest. I too was under the assumption that the CL died if he tried to recruit a mafiate. But then I'm mostly basing my info off of Mafiascum (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Cult), which seems to agree with me.

Otherwise that's an insanely powerful cult power.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

In fact, reading up more on the cult, the more convinced I am that that would be so insanely overpowered it makes even less sense for Bookie to include it than a N1 suicide role. Nowhere does it say the CL sometimes kills mafiates it tries to convert. The closest thing to that is the Cultafia (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Cultafia) which also works differently and is also completely broken.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Pfft we used to play with cult being able to convert mafia which is even stronger because as soon as you hit one you know the entire mafia and have a good control of their kill. Kids these days, don't know how easy they got it.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Also moog was tots mafia. He had a trilby hat. Who going to be wearing that but the mafia.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Read as- Mafiascum.wiki players are pussies and tots suck. Cult killing mafia he tries to recruit is not particularly overpowered. He doesn't learn any other mafia roles in doing so.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Also moog was tots mafia. He had a trilby hat. Who going to be wearing that but the mafia.

That is a point. Ok, so it's possible, but I still don't totally buy it. I'll consider it some more.

[BahamutFlare]

Honestly, I wouldn't assume the cult is gone just because I prefer not to assume. If we base assumptions off of hats, then a fedora completely sounds like a mafia more so than a cult hat.

Also, from what I see, we have Gem saying Sif is the cult leader and Sif saying Gem is cult leader. If the cult exists, then my hunch would be one is town, the other is cult. I never even thought about a cult and how they would act, so I'm not sure what tells to be looking for.

[Sifright]

Honestly, I wouldn't assume the cult is gone just because I prefer not to assume. If we base assumptions off of hats, then a fedora completely sounds like a mafia more so than a cult hat.

Also, from what I see, we have Gem saying Sif is the cult leader and Sif saying Gem is cult leader. If the cult exists, then my hunch would be one is town, the other is cult. I never even thought about a cult and how they would act, so I'm not sure what tells to be looking for.

I don't think Gem has said he thinks i'm cult leader... Unless I'm some how wildly misreading things... (goes back to check)

[Ravashak]

Unvote: Aldurin

While I still suspect Aldurin to be scum, I have to admit that greed's townie explanation could work. Add in the break-in, and I guess it could be better to let that action play itself out, instead of forcing it, thus allowing someone else to frame it as their (town) action.

Add to this that we have a discussion regarding a potential cult leader, and I think we can agree that if Sifright and SMB are correct, this would be a far higher priority target. I first want to hear and judge SMB's arguments before casting a vote, though.

[Geminex]

You'll note that I haven't accused anyone of being cult leader. Cause I haven't found any evidence that would make for a substantial accusation. : o

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Well I was just walking along muttering to myself "Curse that Gem, he be culting all my buddies with the smooth refreshing sound of jazz but how will I ever prove it? Ratusratus" then Sif was all like "Bitches. Gem is from Germany. Like a nazi. Cult like nazi. Peace out" and then I'm like "Ohs hit what do I do! He stole all my friends butI would be wrongfully imprisioning him. Dilemma up the wazoo".

[Mr.Bookworm]

Vote Count

P-sleazy - 3
IC
Smarty
Bahamut

Geminex - 1
Sifright

Inbred Chocobo - 1
B_real

9 to lynch. ~60 hours left.

Drunk Count

Smarty - Hammered.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

That's three on P.
Also, I'm still kind of on the fence with Sleazy. I didn't particularly like his response, but it also didn't lean toward more scummy behavior.
Dunno what to do for the time being. But I guess for now an adequate action would be the more official
FOS: P-Sleazy

[BahamutFlare]

Sif totally jumped me on a suspicion I've had for a while re: Gem is CL.
I don' thave all my notes at work so I'll fill it in later but this is the basic gist of the argument.
Gem has spent a lot of the game backing up and prodding for information- basically buddying up with some of the more vocal players- me particularly. This is an excellent strategy for the CL and does not seem like Gems style. The CL also targetted a low activity player last night which would fit if Gem was hiding behind the high actives. In addition there was his moogle stuff.
I don't think Gem is mafia for various reasons which I have in my notes but I can't remember why off hand.
But my problem is its just a massive hunch, that's why I didn't want to bring it up. I was waiting for most posts from Gem to see if I could pin anything down. But Sif has blown that up now I guess.
As it stands I have a pretty massive hunch that Gem is CL but its mostly a hunch. When I go home I'll fill in a bit more details but the argument is basically waht I've outlined.

Sorry this is where I got that idea that Gem was said to be cult leader. I just confused the wrong people my bad. IGNORE ME!

[rpgdemon]

Also moog was tots mafia. He had a trilby hat. Who going to be wearing that but the mafia.

This is a pretty big flip from your previous, "You can't be assumin' any roles from the flavor" that you posted before.

P-Sleazy confuses me, since he's all, "Well, I'm not posting at all!". If you're a townie and not posting, please give a reason why, townies. If not, you're just helping scum.

vote: P-Sleazy

[Professor Smarmiarty]

This message brought to you by concerned citizens for town safety:
"RPG by tripping some serious whack. I been all about the night kill flavour- i up in its face bitches. Some cracka be pushing base, we gotta shut him down oldskool. mafia kill your body but base kills your mind and your sister. Peace out".

Proposal: Twosday tuesday- all votes count double.

[rpgdemon]

Why are you saying Fen got killed by vig and Bard by the mafia?
Like you seem awfully sure who the vig killed and who the mafia killed.

Sorry, this was the post I was thinking of. You were calling someone out on knowing who killed whom, which was pretty clear by flavor.

[P-Sleazy]

Maybe me being concise with my last post wasn't helpful to you. Thats fine. Giant walls of text aren't helpful to me. Should I vote for everyone with giant walls of text? Guess I should. It's about as helpful of a vote as your votes on me are. Giant walls of text aren't helpful to me cause there's too much "well, I also said this" to hide behind. You're essentiall saying everything and nothing at once. Thats not helpful at all, whilst looking like you're helping, but you're really not accomplishing a whole lot other than making people think that you did. So I'm gonna base this vote on that.

Therefore looking back at the last 40 posts...Geminex and Sifright had the longest posts. if we take out quotes, Geminex wins...barely.

UNVOTE: IC
VOTE: Geminex

Also, IC did have a lengthy post too.

FOS: IC

Also, Fenris, I'm a diabolical genious at EVERYTHING I do. Except spelling.

And Karesh, I still don't like your joke vote but people don't like me being concise.

And everyone else. This is gonna be the longest post you'll probably ever see out of me. Atleast when I voted for IC, it was because he skewed facts into making it seem like I cared about Moogle Day 1(which I didn't). Whether it was intentional or not, I don't know but it seems like something you'd want someone to double check before they post it.

Moral of the story: P_Sleazy doesn't like to read. I like to look at trends instead. It helps if you post graphs and numbers.

[P-Sleazy]

Also, RPGdemon: I posted yesterday. That hardly sounds like not posting at all. If you look at my posting trends, they're all in the evening. And they usually come once a day.

[Revising Ocelot]

My sleep-addled brain is still http://www.nuklearforums.com/images/icons/wtf.gifing at P-Sleazy's logic. I mean, the point that someone can hide behind lots of fluff text seems sound, but you justify this point by... not reading at all? You say that posting a wall lures people into thinking it's good information, but then you don't read at all... which means you'd ignore possible highly useful text entirely? Because there's a lot of it? Just as a counterpoint, my posts so far have been fairly short but they've also been mostly crap. Very flawed logic.

And then you do a vote by exact wordcount.

Yeah.

##Vote: P-Sleazy

[P-Sleazy]

The vote is more of a "you voted for me for posting too little and accomplishing little to nothing so I'll vote for you for posting a lot and accomplishing about as much as I did" kind of thing.

Brevity isn't a bad thing, which is what people are turning my brevity into. At the very least I accomplished what I set out to do with my brevity, which is to say IC's point about me and Moogle is moot. I do not need to go back to day one posts to prove that if IC didn't show support for what he's basing his claim on (which there isn't anything cause I ignored Moogle).

Also, I never said I didn't read posts. I said large walls of text are not helpful to me. And that I don't like to read (not to be confused with "I don't read").

See that? There's two words there completely change the meaning of what I said and what you thought I said. My posts must be too long. ;)

[BahamutFlare]

But there's no logic behind your posts P-Sleazy. Your voting logic is abstract. Your voting on IC because he mixed up facts is well silly. How many people have mixed up facts in this game? Probably everyone that's trying to follow along.

[Gregness]

Ok so I finally got around to re-reading the thread a bit, but it hasn't really helped me. All I've got so far is really small suspicions on multiple people.

I still don't like Aldurins "Bookie gave me a shit role" claim, because let's face it, that's bullshit. Though he was apparantly investigated and (maybe) turned up clean, so we can wait on that a bit.

Kareshs' strange roleclaims early on still bug me, but he's not done anything else too obviously scummy.

RO made that policy lynch comment, which is a terrible idea, especially seeing as how a lot of the people who voted for Snake were making it a policy lynch, even after he said he was leaving the game, which wasted a lynch and did so on poor logic. As such I am apposed to even the slightest hint of policy lynching, though again, that's the only thing I have to go on for RO.

*snip*

A couple things: First, policy lynches are actually justified in some corner cases (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars).

Next, I'm having a hard time finding much of any valuable information to go on in these discussions I keep seeing. Most of it seems to just be discussing motives which I don't think is too valuable in an information vacuum (which, though it's D2, we are basically still in). For hard evidence, we have the lynch post, the night post, Aldurin and Karesh's role claims and... anything else?

The vote is more of a "you voted for me for posting too little and accomplishing little to nothing so I'll vote for you for posting a lot and accomplishing about as much as I did" kind of thing.

Brevity isn't a bad thing, which is what people are turning my brevity into. At the very least I accomplished what I set out to do with my brevity, which is to say IC's point about me and Moogle is moot. I do not need to go back to day one posts to prove that if IC didn't show support for what he's basing his claim on (which there isn't anything cause I ignored Moogle).

Also, I never said I didn't read posts. I said large walls of text are not helpful to me. And that I don't like to read (not to be confused with "I don't read").

See that? There's two words there completely change the meaning of what I said and what you thought I said. My posts must be too long. ;)

I'm getting really tired of everyone bringing up "walls of text" like you're goddamn politicians out for reelection. I mean, the fuck do you DO on the internet but read?

That said, I don't know that the mini vote train that's gathering on P_Sleazy is justified at this point so I'll just:

FoS: P_Sleazy

[Gregness]

Maybe me being concise with my last post wasn't helpful to you. Thats fine. Giant walls of text aren't helpful to me. Should I vote for everyone with giant walls of text? Guess I should. It's about as helpful of a vote as your votes on me are. Giant walls of text aren't helpful to me cause there's too much "well, I also said this" to hide behind. You're essentiall saying everything and nothing at once. Thats not helpful at all, whilst looking like you're helping, but you're really not accomplishing a whole lot other than making people think that you did. So I'm gonna base this vote on that.

Therefore looking back at the last 40 posts...Geminex and Sifright had the longest posts. if we take out quotes, Geminex wins...barely.

UNVOTE: IC
VOTE: Geminex

Also, IC did have a lengthy post too.

FOS: IC

Also, Fenris, I'm a diabolical genious at EVERYTHING I do. Except spelling.

And Karesh, I still don't like your joke vote but people don't like me being concise.

And everyone else. This is gonna be the longest post you'll probably ever see out of me. Atleast when I voted for IC, it was because he skewed facts into making it seem like I cared about Moogle Day 1(which I didn't). Whether it was intentional or not, I don't know but it seems like something you'd want someone to double check before they post it.

Moral of the story: P_Sleazy doesn't like to read. I like to look at trends instead. It helps if you post graphs and numbers.


Umm, shit, I meant to quote this message instead of the other one in my last reply, just do the substitution y'all.

[Geminex]

Sleazy, you're misrepresenting things. We aren't voting for you cause you're a master of brevity.. We're voting cause you've been pretty inactive, seemingly trying not to get noticed. And there's the connection between you and moogle, which you claim to have disproven? All I can see is you going "No, trust me, bro, I wouldn't do that kinda thing", which, as far as rational arguments go, is about on par with the rest of your activity so far.

See, that's the point. It's not that you're concise. It's that you rarely post, you say pretty much fuck all when you do post, and your voting is weird as well. And that, as far as I can tell, is fairly scummy on its own.

And given that my posts, while sometimes a bit lengthy, at least include some actual content (or so I'd like to believe), I think there's quite a ways between voting for you due to a suspicious lack of activity and voting for me because TL;DR. And comparing the two doesn't do you any favors.

##VOTE: P-Sleazy

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

At this point I would feel quite comfortable with a vote on Sleazy. You were already raising alarm bells with the lack of activity and contributing nothing useful to the discussion, but now you come out and say that long posts are worthy of voting people for, which is the same bullshit reasoning that people jumped on Snake over.

And it is a bullshit reason. You are on the internet, it requires reading. You are playing mafia, it requires reading and analysing the things peope say to determine if they'e lieing about stuff. The more people say in their posts the more we have to look at an analyse and the easier it is to determine lies. Any logic counter to that is unproductive to the town and this coupled with your general inactivity and lack of contributing anything useful yourself makes you look scummy as hell.

Vote: P-Sleazy

Oh and Gem, I already pointed out that Moogle and Sleazy had no connection at all. Moogle voted for Sleazy once and Sleazy never responded. Whatever IC was trying to say there is a moot point because nothing happened. You are the one misrepresenting facts now.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

FOS: Hawk for his consistent and repeated attempts to villianise the snake voters by making up voting reasons that no one was actually using to vote him.
Hawk is attempted to pervert the dialogue of the town by stating incorrect facts so that is what everyone remembers and not what actually happened. Classic scum move.
Snake was voted because he made really long posts which were all personal attacks, bragginga bout how awesome he was and contained no real insight or strategy or anything related to the game. Not because "Durrr his posts are too long"

[Geminex]

He is right on this point, though.
Oh and Gem, I already pointed out that Moogle and Sleazy had no connection at all. Moogle voted for Sleazy once and Sleazy never responded. Whatever IC was trying to say there is a moot point because nothing happened. You are the one misrepresenting facts now.
Just checked, and yeah. You're right, sorry 'bout that. I could've sworn there was something there.

Still keeping my vote on sleazy, though, for the suspicious posting style.

[Sifright]

I'd just like to say I'm not at all impressed with Sleazy going the whole "text is worthless" route Also viewing votings trends and such as the sole arbiter of deciding whether to lynch some one is silly on so many levels because it ignores a whole avenue of information. That said I still think lynching sleazy is wrong for this game day. Right now the cult is the most dangerous faction and unlike the other powers each game day the cult survives it get significantly stronger.

So basically guys lets get some comments on evidence against gem i'm more than a little perturbed that conversation about him has died given the seriousness of what My self and Smarty believe. Smarty would you elaborate further and explain to the others what it is about his day 1 actions that made you think he was CL? I think i've explained my reasoning for the CL conclusion about his day 2 actions well enough.

[Sifright]

PS: People shifting the focus away from gem discussion is a little odd, regardless lets get some more actual discussion going before we lynch any one. (didn't want to edit last post)

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Cause all you dudes post like a million posts while I'msleeping so till I get time to read them I just respond to the latest post.

[Geminex]

I was under the impression that people weren't responding to your points because I rebutted most of them, Sif. Do you actually have any evidence against me? You've failed to respond to my rebuttal, and you're asking smarty to back you up with his arguments, so I'm guessing the answer to that is a comprehensive "no".

And considering that, it honestly seems pretty strange that you'd try to continue drawing attention towards me.

[Sifright]

Because your rebuttal is basically you going 'twerent me honest guvner" I mean the only way I could have complete 100% undeniable evidence is if i was the PO..

My rebuttal will be in bold in your quote


As for the moogle thing...
Seriously? I mean, not to diminish your sleuthing prowess, but I interpreted the data of the nightkill. It told us a player had committed suicide. I assumed that the suicidal player had the suicidal role, given that the situation matched the description of this role pretty exactly. I even posted a link (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Suicidal) to back up my argument, which you apparently didn't notice.

Mainly because in Mafia you always have to look underneath what some one is saying or what information is provided to glean info from people who are scum, basically taking info at face value unless you consider it from every view point first in mafia is a terrible idea. Given that a suicide role would be pointless and utterly bastardly of bookworm something I don't think bookworm would do taking it at face value is ridiculous. Now with you trying to take it at face value as cult leader makes total sense because it's attempt to make people think "Huh, dude suicided nothing to see here" It's way of trying to hide the existence of the cult

My point is, I'm not making wild, manipulative conjenctures here. I made the logical argument that the guy who commited suicide might have done that because he was suicidal. I don't see how you can consider that culty.

I made the same point above basically taking it face value is ridiculous and treating it as a cult mafia interaction makes alot more sense, the only reason to make it look like it is face value is basically if you are trying obfuscate info.


As for Sifright's latest post, again. I was throwing options out there. When you guys made logical counter-arguments, I accepted those. I didn't go "THE CULT IS DEAD NOBODY ARGUE". I first assumed that moogle had been suicidal, which I thought was a reasonable assumption. When the cult-mafia interaction was brought up, I thought that it would make sense for the cultist to die, rather than the deadly mafiate. I suggested both possibilities, yes. But there's a difference between making an argument and trying to force an argument on others.

No you worked to minimise conversation around the topic initially and then when it brought up by me you tried to move in away to makes people skeptical of whether Moogle was the recruiter or not trying to obfuscate and make people think the cult is gone

[P-Sleazy]

Man, can't you guys just accept a simple explanation?

ROLECLAIM: Tinfoil Hat

I'm paranoid so I can't be killed at night. (incidentally, I also think you all can read my mind).

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

FOS: Hawk for his consistent and repeated attempts to villianise the snake voters by making up voting reasons that no one was actually using to vote him.
Hawk is attempted to pervert the dialogue of the town by stating incorrect facts so that is what everyone remembers and not what actually happened. Classic scum move.
Snake was voted because he made really long posts which were all personal attacks, bragginga bout how awesome he was and contained no real insight or strategy or anything related to the game. Not because "Durrr his posts are too long"

I believe it started off simply because he was making long posts (which may or may not have been helpful), then it moved into bragging and personal attacks, then became a policy lynch.

My point in "villainising" Snake voters as you put it though is also based on the fact that they continued to vote for him even after he said he was leaving the game, thus wasting a lynch that could have been better served elsewhere. And really, did anyone truthfully think Snake was scum? Or did people just want him gone for personal reasons?

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Oh right, Sleazys roleclaim, hmm. Not sure if I believe it, but I have no evidence to disprove it, and the flavour text kinda sounds plausible, so

Unvote: P-Sleazy

Would have probably been better if you hadn't made such illogical posting logic known and thus making yourself look dodgy as hell in the first place, but it'd be pretty stupid to continue voting for you now if you really are unkillable.

[BahamutFlare]

It could be a lie. And it could be a safelist hat. Flavor, it kinda makes sense, but a tinfoil hat would most likely protect you from alignment detection rather than dying at night. Beware the probe, not the gun/knife/blunt object.

P-Sleazy, your simple explanations are illogical accusations. I vote because of longest posts. Reread your posts. There is no real help to town in there.

Also, I have no idea about cults, so that's why my focus has been elsewhere. I understand where Sif is going with his arguments, and it makes sense to a degree, but it's just not hard proof.

[Revising Ocelot]

Lynch train starts.

Claims to be bulletproof.

Not buying it. If I was personally bulletproof I'd claim before a lynch train to avoid exactly this kind of doubt. It's not like a BP would get swiftly killed for an early claim. When did Karesh claim his BP in the MLP Mafia?

[Sifright]

To be fair he claimed in MLP mafia after I specifically gave him an opening and states I knew who his role was, I mean for him that couldn't have been any better.

[P-Sleazy]

I feel like you guys read less than I do cause suddenly I'm unkillable all the time and I made a role claim in a mafia I'm pretty sure I only posted in two times before I died, on night 1.

[Aldurin]

I'm still suspicious about his roleclaim. He may very well be doing out of the fact that we're on the way to lynch him anyway, and hoping we back off.

But scum can do some drastic stuff regarding bulletproof claims (refer to Homestuck mafia). Claiming bulletproof could work well for scum that don't want to get lynched either.

FoS: P-sleazy

I'm not completely buying the claim, but just in case he's telling the truth I won't vote for him for now.

[Geminex]

Re: Sleazy.

On the one hand, the claim itself isn't suspicious. You never want to claim bulletproof till the last second (when it might save your life), because the one thing you want is for scum to try and nightkill you. And it would make sense for a bulletproof townie to claim in this kinda situation. Though, with about 2 days left to lynch, I guess this is jumping the gun a bit.

On the other hand, that's only the claim as such. The question now is whether it falls into his previous behavior. And I think the answer to that question is a resounding 'no'. Again, as a bulletproof, if scum or SK tries to nightkill you, they're wasting a kill. You want to make yourself a target for them. Show a presence, make it clear to scum that you're a threat to them. You want to be active.

What you don't want to do is hang around in the shadows and not do very much of anything at all, which has been sleazy's apparent strategy, so far. His behavior just doesn't fit his role.

And honestly, bulletproof is a pretty good claim for scum in a corner. Bulletproof isn't as important a role as doctor or PO, so there's gonna be a lot less scrutiny from town. There might not even be a bulletproof, so you're less likely to get counter-claimed. And ultimately, nobody wants to be the one to lynch a bulletproof, cause those are prime scum targets during lynches.

P-Sleazy just hasn't behaved like a bulletproof townie would. Seems more of a scum desperation claim than anything.

So I'm keeping my vote. I'll take it off if I hear some good arguments, but as it is, I'd rather end up lynching a possible bulletproof than letting a (fairly probable) scum go free.


And sifright, your points are horrible. Drawing an obvious conclusion doesn't mean guilt. On anyone's part. Sure, you need to look for misidirection and deception, especially from other players. But that doesn't mean that nothing is as it seems. And you yourself admitted that the conclusion that Moogle was suicidal was the obvious one. Was it a good point? No, it wasn't. I hadn't considered a few factors. That's why I dropped the argument once people made those points to me. Was it a reasonable point? Yes. I'm pretty sure that "The suicidal guy probably had the suicidal role" is pretty damn reasonable.

And now to quote a few snippets.
the only reason to make it look like it is face value is basically if you are trying obfuscate info.
Why are you making the assumption I was 'trying to make it look' like anything? I made an honest argument. You are using the assumption that I was being deceptive as evidence for my deception. That's circular logic. And that's terrible.

No you worked to minimise conversation around the topic initially and then when it brought up by me you tried to move in away to makes people skeptical of whether Moogle was the recruiter or not trying to obfuscate and make people think the cult is gone
And this isn't even true. I stated that I thought moogle was suicidal. That's not 'minimizing conversation', that's stating an opinion. When you contradicted me on that, I asked you to expand on your argument. When Smarty and RO expanded on it, I came to agree with them. There was no obstruction or obfusication here. Just rational debate. And honestly, at this point, suggesting otherwise, smacks less of your concern for town, and more of your desperation to get me lynched for what amounts to no good reason.

FOS: Sifright for making some seriously bad arguments. Possibly on purpose.

[Inbred Chocobo]

Unvote: P-Sleazy

Bandwagon built up way to easy on him, I feel like scum is actively pursuing this target as its an easy target. More insight on this later as I read, but I wanted the unvote up as quick as possible.

[Mr.Bookworm]

Vote Count

P-sleazy - 6
IC
Smarty
Bahamut
rpgdemon
Ocelot
Geminex

Geminex - 2
Sifright
B_real

9 to lynch. ~33 hours left.

[Sifright]

My responses inside the quote


And sifright, your points are horrible. Drawing an obvious conclusion doesn't mean guilt. On anyone's part. Sure, you need to look for misidirection and deception, especially from other players. But that doesn't mean that nothing is as it seems. And you yourself admitted that the conclusion that Moogle was suicidal was the obvious one. Was it a good point? No, it wasn't. I hadn't considered a few factors. That's why I dropped the argument once people made those points to me. Was it a reasonable point? Yes. I'm pretty sure that "The suicidal guy probably had the suicidal role" is pretty damn reasonable.

No assuming the suicidal guy suicided and achieved nothing is not reasonable, even the role you linked explictly stated in the mafiascum page that it's a bastard role. It is unreasonable to expect bookie to give some one a suicide role that does nothing else we have been over this several times.

And now to quote a few snippets.

Why are you making the assumption I was 'trying to make it look' like anything? I made an honest argument. You are using the assumption that I was being deceptive as evidence for my deception. That's circular logic. And that's terrible.

No it's not circular logic at all, I basically looked at your actions and then tried to fit them into a model where in they would make sense to do so I tried to fit your posts into several different mind frames, the only other frame of mind your posts fits into is "Utterly clueless townie" I don't think you play that way you certainly didn't last game.




And this isn't even true. I stated that I thought moogle was suicidal. That's not 'minimizing conversation', that's stating an opinion.

When viewed under the lens of cult leader it is exactly what the purpose of that statement would be, admittedly I could be suffering from confirmation bias but that has nothing to do with the validity of my logic, basically all of your statements and posts when taken from the lens of cult leader make much more sense unless you really want to go with the "I'm a utterly utterly clueless townie"

When you contradicted me on that, I asked you to expand on your argument. When Smarty and RO expanded on it, I came to agree with them. There was no obstruction or obfusication here. Just rational debate. And honestly, at this point, suggesting otherwise, smacks less of your concern for town, and more of your desperation to get me lynched for what amounts to no good reason.

Right my arguments are bad because you don't like them given how i've provided a fairly decent rebuttal right there. Again your actions only fit under two possible aegis either you are the "completely clueless townie" or the "Cult leader" given your playstyle last game and other actions taken by you cult leader fits your MO much better especially as last game you played much better than this, you didn't have what feels like this faux cluelessness about yourself, regardless this tendency to feign cluelessness is helping no one especially when you are missing what is frankly frighteningly obvious information it's why I latched onto you as the cult leader.

FOS: Sifright for making some seriously bad arguments. Possibly on purpose.

[Ravashak]

I disagree with a lot of what you've written regarding P-Sleazy, Geminex, yes, this means a post ripped to pieces and responses to said pieces.
Re: Sleazy.

On the one hand, the claim itself isn't suspicious. You never want to claim bulletproof till the last second (when it might save your life), because the one thing you want is for scum to try and nightkill you. And it would make sense for a bulletproof townie to claim in this kinda situation. Though, with about 2 days left to lynch, I guess this is jumping the gun a bit.At the point of P-Sleazy's roleclaim, there were 7 out of 9 required votes for a lynch on him. According to the rules, once someone reaches 9 votes, the day is instantly over. I'm not sure about the timezones of those playing, but I wouldn't want to wake up lynched prematurely if I could've prevented it either. This is purely based on the timing of the roleclaim, and doesn't attempt to judge whether or not P-Sleazy is what he says he is.
On the other hand, that's only the claim as such. The question now is whether it falls into his previous behavior. And I think the answer to that question is a resounding 'no'. Again, as a bulletproof, if scum or SK tries to nightkill you, they're wasting a kill. You want to make yourself a target for them. Show a presence, make it clear to scum that you're a threat to them. You want to be active.

What you don't want to do is hang around in the shadows and not do very much of anything at all, which has been sleazy's apparent strategy, so far. His behavior just doesn't fit his role.
I don't agree, being low profile, but not quite inactive is a method used by scum and power roles alike, to prevent suspicion on them. As such, in order to confuse mafia into thinking you might be a power role, and as such a good target for elimination, is an alternative way for bulletproof play, in my opinion. This isn't to say that high profile wouldn't be an option either, just saying that it isn't the only one, as I see it.

And honestly, bulletproof is a pretty good claim for scum in a corner. Bulletproof isn't as important a role as doctor or PO, so there's gonna be a lot less scrutiny from town. There might not even be a bulletproof, so you're less likely to get counter-claimed. And ultimately, nobody wants to be the one to lynch a bulletproof, cause those are prime scum targets during lynches.

P-Sleazy just hasn't behaved like a bulletproof townie would. Seems more of a scum desperation claim than anything.

So I'm keeping my vote. I'll take it off if I hear some good arguments, but as it is, I'd rather end up lynching a possible bulletproof than letting a (fairly probable) scum go free.While I that what I said is not me saying Sleazy is definately town, I'm a bit suspicious of him, but at this point in time, I don't feel like he's the biggest target we have.
With two people starting to shout that Geminex is the cult leader, though with only one giving the reasons why, I'm curious as to the case that SMB built, I'd like him to give reasons why we should follow their judgement. Especially since SMB told us yesterday he'd explain it.

____

Good thing preview exists, so I can respond to newer posts...

IC, I agree, the bandwagon filled incredibly fast up to the roleclaim, and it feels pretty suspicious. Gonna look at the timing some more and see what happened in day one to see if I can feel something else suspicious.

Sif, PLEASE don't do this anymore, responding in the quote might make things just slightly easier to read, but the inability to quote is just annoying, imo.

[Inbred Chocobo]

Vote: Sifright

Why?

Short version for people like P-sleazy: He is being extremely aggressive this game, pushiing himself into the forefront, and making him appear as a valuable townie. This is going too far, and feels like an act at certain points.

Long version for everyone else: His posts are always pushy, always trying to force a decision. He feels like he is trying to rush everyone else, as if he doesn't want people to think about whats going on. His thoughts are dismissive of everyone else, and his arguement was one of playstyle change from game to game, which I've already made my thoughts from that before (aka, they change, get over it). I give credit to Sifright about thinking about the cult leader and his ideas against gem are decently sound. However, his arguement means that if mafia want a chance to win this game, they need to kill the cult leader, else the cult could very well attempt to recruit and kill more of their members, making this an easier victory for town. So, instead, I'm going to lean back and see what happens over the night before claiming Gem is cult or whatever, and continue going after mafia.

I feel like he is attempting to basically get people mad and start spamming things. People mad means people don't think which leads to bad decisions, which is exactly what mafia wants. So I am putting my vote there and seeing where it leads.

[Sifright]

Vote: Sifright

Why?

Short version for people like P-sleazy: He is being extremely aggressive this game, pushiing himself into the forefront, and making him appear as a valuable townie. This is going too far, and feels like an act at certain points.

Long version for everyone else: His posts are always pushy, always trying to force a decision. He feels like he is trying to rush everyone else, as if he doesn't want people to think about whats going on. His thoughts are dismissive of everyone else, and his arguement was one of playstyle change from game to game, which I've already made my thoughts from that before (aka, they change, get over it). I give credit to Sifright about thinking about the cult leader and his ideas against gem are decently sound. However, his arguement means that if mafia want a chance to win this game, they need to kill the cult leader, else the cult could very well attempt to recruit and kill more of their members, making this an easier victory for town. So, instead, I'm going to lean back and see what happens over the night before claiming Gem is cult or whatever, and continue going after mafia.

I feel like he is attempting to basically get people mad and start spamming things. People mad means people don't think which leads to bad decisions, which is exactly what mafia wants. So I am putting my vote there and seeing where it leads.

Could you explain how i'm being any different to day 2 of the last mafia game where I pushed really really hard for a nikose lynch and Again on day 3 of the last mafia game where I pushed REALLY hard for a Nikose lynch. Also Cult is the single most powerful faction in the game, The mafia are second strongest followed by town. I'll explain.

Presume Cult starts with only one member I think this makes sense for how bookie is running the cult leader with the ability to kill mafia.

Spread of players will be something like this, 21 Total, 5 mafia, 1 SK, 1 Cult 14 townies with some of the having power roles.

Town and mafia both have ever dwindling population contrasted with this if the cult leader isn't killed his faction grows larger every night and even if town are lucky enough to kill off one of the cultist recruits every single day or night with the help of the vig town would still eventually lose. Whilst the cult will remain either stagnant or grow while every other faction will lose players.

Mafia are strong initially due to night faction kill and knowledge of who else is their alignment. Sk is weak permanently has factional night kill but no allies. Town is strong technically but very weak due to lack of information. The reason i'm pushing so hard for the cult is because they really are that strong.

I've no interest in getting people angry, causing a shitstorm will only shutdown conversation and kill the game thread for the day I'm completely 100% utterly opposed to this. I want people talking I want peoples thoughts and frankly I'm slightly aggrieved that you think I'm trying to shut down discussion. If I was truly scum I would be quick hammering sleazy now as the voting situation was very perilous for a short while.

To reiterate I want to hear other peoples view points, Yes i've steered the topic towards gem because I believe my arguments are sound and because I believe the Cult if left to flourish will grow far to powerful, as I suspect one mafia player to be dead and the SK to be gone as well targeting the cult now makes the most sense.

[rpgdemon]

I'm not sure if I buy P-Sleazy's roleclaim, it COULD be scum trying to figure out who not to kill. Even worse, if he gets counterclaimed, we have a 50/50 tossup of whether or not we hit the bulletproof, or the scum. Yeah, we've got an identified scum for next round, but I was killed off as the real town bulletproof by a scum strategy like that, in the Homestuck game.

At the same time, Sif is definitely acting differently than before. Before, he was assertive, but now he's assertive and aggressively hostile. Having been on the other side of his aggressiveness before, this time feels definitely different than how he was pursuing me last game.

I'm going to Unvote: P-Sleazy, and think more.

[Sifright]

I'm not sure if I buy P-Sleazy's roleclaim, it COULD be scum trying to figure out who not to kill. Even worse, if he gets counterclaimed, we have a 50/50 tossup of whether or not we hit the bulletproof, or the scum. Yeah, we've got an identified scum for next round, but I was killed off as the real town bulletproof by a scum strategy like that, in the Homestuck game.

At the same time, Sif is definitely acting differently than before. Before, he was assertive, but now he's assertive and aggressively hostile. Having been on the other side of his aggressiveness before, this time feels definitely different than how he was pursuing me last game.

I'm going to Unvote: P-Sleazy, and think more.

:crying: How am I being any different from last game? What on earth guys? Look at how hard I pushed for the lynch on Nikose last game when i was relatively certain of him, how am I doing anything different now when it comes to Geminex? I've explained my reasoning the only thing you can claim i'm doing differently this time is not following people so much and coming to my own conclusions, Mainly because as soon as I started doing that last game (read day 2) I started hitting scum targets.

I refuse to back down from a Gem lynch, regardless of how suspicious you guys think this makes me killing the cult off is the single most important thing we can do as town at this stage. To reiterate one mafia already down! Think about that for a moment, if we can remove another enemy faction from the game we are in a much better situation as town, do you really want to risk the PO or the vigilante being culted, because that is a very real possibility this is why i'm so concerned about Geminex, we already lost one town power role in the death of bard.

[Inbred Chocobo]

For people like P-sleazy: Hand-wave away the argument that is what he did last game as town as this game is not last game, then talk about cult a bit.

Could you explain how i'm being any different to day 2 of the last mafia game where I pushed really really hard for a nikose lynch and Again on day 3 of the last mafia game where I pushed REALLY hard for a Nikose lynch.

First, for behavior, I don't really give a shit how you acted in whatever game, as that is not this game, and I will just you by the merits you make in this game and only this game. However you are constantly pushing to using past knowledge from previous games to judge how one person acted and another different. The problem is that is flawed logic as behavior is not an easy thing to control, and surprisingly, can be changed based on a lot of factors outside of the game that change on a daily basis.

Also Cult is the single most powerful faction in the game, The mafia are second strongest followed by town. I'll explain.

Presume Cult starts with only one member I think this makes sense for how bookie is running the cult leader with the ability to kill mafia.

Spread of players will be something like this, 21 Total, 5 mafia, 1 SK, 1 Cult 14 townies with some of the having power roles.

Town and mafia both have ever dwindling population contrasted with this if the cult leader isn't killed his faction grows larger every night and even if town are lucky enough to kill off one of the cultist recruits every single day or night with the help of the vig town would still eventually lose. Whilst the cult will remain either stagnant or grow while every other faction will lose players.

Mafia are strong initially due to night faction kill and knowledge of who else is their alignment. Sk is weak permanently has factional night kill but no allies. Town is strong technically but very weak due to lack of information. The reason i'm pushing so hard for the cult is because they really are that strong.

I've no interest in getting people angry, causing a shitstorm will only shutdown conversation and kill the game thread for the day I'm completely 100% utterly opposed to this. I want people talking I want peoples thoughts and frankly I'm slightly aggrieved that you think I'm trying to shut down discussion. If I was truly scum I would be quick hammering sleazy now as the voting situation was very perilous for a short while.

To reiterate I want to hear other peoples view points, Yes i've steered the topic towards gem because I believe my arguments are sound and because I believe the Cult if left to flourish will grow far to powerful, as I suspect one mafia player to be dead and the SK to be gone as well targeting the cult now makes the most sense.

You are right, cult is a threat, but to both town and mafia. Mafia know this, and you have pointed them in a clear direction that they could kill it off. If Gem is truly the cult leader, then I fully expect some night kill role, either vig or town to get them. However, that won't help us because we need our day kill to reveal a role, and killing gem on day will only fulfill whether your suspicions are correct. Lynching someone else however will reveal a lot more information, based off of their arguments and those that argued against you. You have, whether intentional or not, been pestering and pushing people into acting, or hussling them, and it has happened so much that I don't believe that your intentions for it are just to keep the town active, but to make the town do stupid things, so my vote remains with you.

[Geminex]

Sifright, gah. I was making some suggestions regarding the night post. One of them was mistaken. I aknowleged that mistake pretty quickly. Sure, if I were cult, that mistake could have been intentional. But it could just as well have been a simple misassumption, from a townie, or a mafiate, or the SK. You yourself said that the assumption I made in regards to moogle was the obvious one. How, in that context, can you still claim that the mistake is one an inexperienced townie can't make? I mean, yes, you have the meta-game argument, but for all my eloquence, this is my second game of mafia ever. I honestly didn't consider that angle, and while the connection between the trilby and the suicidal role wasn't immediately apparent, I thought I was on the right track. When it was pointed out to me that this wasn't the case, by you, no less, I changed my mind. You're trying to hang me on a detail.

And while I get that you're desperate to find the cult leader, and yes, maybe I'm your best bet right now, that doesn't justify lynching me because I said something that the cult leader might say. That isn't justification for a lynch. That's just desperation.

Rav made some good points, though:
First, I hadn't considered that Sleazy was already at 7 out of 9 votes. That explains the 'jumping the gun' aspect.

I don't agree, being low profile, but not quite inactive is a method used by scum and power roles alike, to prevent suspicion on them. As such, in order to confuse mafia into thinking you might be a power role, and as such a good target for elimination, is an alternative way for bulletproof play, in my opinion. This isn't to say that high profile wouldn't be an option either, just saying that it isn't the only one, as I see it.
This is honestly not a bad point, he could have been trying to hang back in order to attract the mafia to him... But I dunno. It's not that he didn't post at all. From what I can tell, he tried to keep up a semblance of activity, but didn't actually put any content in his posts. To me, that says scum more than anything.

I mean, ultimately, it's WIFOM. He can't know what the mafia would expect from a power role. His best bet would've been to at least try to help town with the stuff he posted. Try to analyze stuff, make logical arguments, maybe even try to flush out a few mafiates. That kind of thing threatens scum. He kinda did the opposite of that. I mean, I'm not sure either, but we've got two days left, and there's probably no more threat of a majority vote. So I'll stay here.

[Sifright]

Right, okay I'm trying to make the town do stupid things. What stupid things am I pushing town towards out of interest, because this is something I'm not seeing and your reasoning has been mostly nebulous. You are right that Gem can be night killed and in my worry about us going for a lynch with out discussion I forgot about that, leaving him to the Vigilante does make some sense, but I think my worries are legitimate.

I'm not happy with how you are characterizing my actions either, because apart from this situation with Geminex where have i been hustling town? When I tried to get a lynch on aldurin for his role claim which every one has agreed with me about it being suspicious? When I tried to stop a lynch on snake when he said he was leaving the game? Lets be honest that wasn't snake just saying he was leaving the game that was a leaving the forum post so lynching snake after that is just ridiculous.

[b]FOS:Inbred chocobo[/]

Your reasoning through of my actions is faulty and you are mis-characterizing both what I've said and my actions.

[rpgdemon]

Well, Sif, you're deadset on him, but your reasoning this time is much more emotional, and less reasoned than before. You're trying to appeal to people's fear and emotions, instead of convincing them.

[rpgdemon]

Like, when you were accusing me before, you were making points, trying to make chains of logic, and then get into what my motives were, constantly. You didn't make the posts once with the logic, then give up. This time, you're doing just that, which is what is suspicious to me. You logicked once, and are now just going off of emotion.

If you respond with, "Well, I don't have any real more logic to say!", then perhaps you ought to reconsider being so deadset on hitting Gem. I have no idea what he might be, but I would rather be suspicious of the one who is trying to emotion a lynch on him, than the person I have no reason to or not to suspect.

[Sifright]

Well, Sif, you're deadset on him, but your reasoning this time is much more emotional, and less reasoned than before. You're trying to appeal to people's fear and emotions, instead of convincing them.

No I started out, with actual observation and analysis of his posts and why I believed what I did, i've slowly moved over to emotive argument to attempt to drum up some damn thoughts on the matter and to get people to look at geminex more in depth. At this stage I don't think I can convince any one, I'm not an eloquent poster, I'm no demagogue. If you guys really think I'm wrong i'll shut up, not because I agree with you but because me harping is not going to help town further. One thing I will not regret though is trying to stop a quick lynch on Sleazy. Given his bullet proof roleclaim and the lack of any counter claim at the moment I'm damn glad I tried to keep gem the focus of the conversation because he came very close to being lynched.

[Sifright]

Like, when you were accusing me before, you were making points, trying to make chains of logic, and then get into what my motives were, constantly. You didn't make the posts once with the logic, then give up. This time, you're doing just that, which is what is suspicious to me. You logicked once, and are now just going off of emotion.

If you respond with, "Well, I don't have any real more logic to say!", then perhaps you ought to reconsider being so deadset on hitting Gem. I have no idea what he might be, but I would rather be suspicious of the one who is trying to emotion a lynch on him, than the person I have no reason to or not to suspect.

Consider me shut up then, because I've explained my rational enough times you are right I have nothing more to bring to the table. I must be utterly wrong.

[Sifright]

I'm not sure if I buy P-Sleazy's roleclaim, it COULD be scum trying to figure out who not to kill. Even worse, if he gets counterclaimed, we have a 50/50 tossup of whether or not we hit the bulletproof, or the scum. Yeah, we've got an identified scum for next round, but I was killed off as the real town bulletproof by a scum strategy like that, in the Homestuck game.

At the same time, Sif is definitely acting differently than before. Before, he was assertive, but now he's assertive and aggressively hostile. Having been on the other side of his aggressiveness before, this time feels definitely different than how he was pursuing me last game.

I'm going to Unvote: P-Sleazy, and think more.

Format your unvote correctly you are still voting for him currently.

[rpgdemon]

##Unvote: P-Sleazy

Stupid format changes between games.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Yeah I've been pretty busy (read: super drunk) last day or two and posts in mafia take a lot more time and effort than others. I'll try hit some shit up tommorwo mronign.

[BahamutFlare]

Sif, I understand what you're saying, but I believe P-Sleazy to be a lot more suspicious then Sif at the moment. I'm going to keep my vote the same for the moment.

I was actually wondering about why Smarty turned so quiet and he ninja'd me. I has been defeated!

Which force is more hurtful in the end? cult or mafia? Right now, only cult leader exists assuming Moogle was not cult leader. I can see cult being more hurtful if they have 2-3 members. And if cult leader dies, does the entire cult turn back to normal? Or are they cult forever?

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Ok,
caught up.
Hawk still is trying to create false memories of the snake lynch. For someone who complains about "TL:DR posts" he sure doesn't like to read himsef. Or purposefully leading us down garden path.

RPG did this to me and to RO a few times but more isolated.

Sif is going after Gem pretty hard, i think this is tots genuine. There would be no need for scum to pursue this policy and he does really believe Gem is CL.

Gem- everyone was like "whre is smarties super argument" but I never had one. as I said it was a hunch I was sitting on then Sif jumped gun.
But basically it's day 1- he echoed both Snake and I arguments when we were the two most active posters in the thread. Then actively pulled away from my position after I gave a hint of what i thought he was doing.
Then early day 2 he engaged me early on, with our little theory discussion,once again walling himself off behind me. It's a consistent pattern of being with the primary posters (not with as in always agreeing with but ina ctive dialogue with) as a way of deflcting attention.
It is a hunch but that's what I'm going off.

Other thoughts- watch out for people leaping off the Sleazy bandwagon now that its nature has been called out.
RPG brings up the most suspicon. He jumepd on the wagon with Sleazy is confusing, then as soon as it was brought up as a wagon he jumped off again.
This combined with his pidgeonholing of arguments leads to me to
FOS: RPG

I woud vote him but:
Psleazy, I'm really not sure. like he's been quiet but that's not necessarily a scum tell.
His bulletproof claim could be an easy lie.
I wnat to hear from RPG first before vote switch.

[Sifright]

I'm not sure if I buy P-Sleazy's roleclaim, it COULD be scum trying to figure out who not to kill. Even worse, if he gets counterclaimed, we have a 50/50 tossup of whether or not we hit the bulletproof, or the scum. Yeah, we've got an identified scum for next round, but I was killed off as the real town bulletproof by a scum strategy like that, in the Homestuck game.

At the same time, Sif is definitely acting differently than before. Before, he was assertive, but now he's assertive and aggressively hostile. Having been on the other side of his aggressiveness before, this time feels definitely different than how he was pursuing me last game.

I'm going to Unvote: P-Sleazy, and think more.

Yea I'm acting no different from last game when I was sure I had a scum target in my sights.

Inbred chocobo if you don't want to discuss peoples actions from last game that is your loss, it's still evidence even if it's not authoritative it's an avenue to help draw conclusions, and damn right i'm going to defend my self using it when people try to say that I am acting differently and use ANY AND ALL avenues of information to explain peoples actions, obviously some information has greater weight but I will use everything I can. As a townie we have no concrete information and denying avenues of information is just silly.


FOS:Sleazy
FOS:Inbred Chocobo



Rpgdemon mis-characterizing my posts and thoughts and saying how i'm not using logic chains is really off putting given that it's exactly what I did when rebutting geminexs post, he might not like the conclusions i've drawn but that doesn't mean the chain of events that happened and my analysis of them are illogical. Also his painting my actions as different from last game when I was hilariously emotive in my arguing last game when trying to get people to lynch Nikose over me when every one was like "LETS PROVE KARESHS CLAIM BY KILLING SIF" Had me get so upset I basically threw a hissyfit and was going to rage quit. So yea given that you were one of the people directly responsible for that

[b]Vote:Rpgdemon

Because you know I argue emotively when i'm worried and think town is going to be lead to the executioners axe, the only reason to pretend you think I don't act that way is if you are mafia and want me dead.

[P-Sleazy]

What avenue of information do I want you to ignore? I just want people to be brief so I don't have to read as much.

[Sifright]

Unvote:Geminex

Vote:Rpgdemon

[rpgdemon]

Unvote:Geminex

Vote:Rpgdemon

Still not formatted correctly. Got to use ##.

As for why I switched my vote: It would be scummy NOT to. He's sitting at what, six now? And he was at seven before? It would have taken possibly ONE person in order to lynch him, if they have they have the secret vote. Someone comes in, votes, and if the secret vote happened again, he's gone. And if he really IS bulletproof, then we've lost a townie in the only way that we could lose them, because no one switched off.

I'm not sure what I think right now, so I pulled my vote to avoid an early lynch, since I don't want someone sneaking in and killing him without allowing us more discussion.

I still think that Sif is scummy, moreso now, especially for telling me that I personally "know" how he thinks and plays, which is ridiculous. He never advocated emotion before, and it's only right after you posted Smarty that he changed from, "Okay, I don't have any other points, aside from that one post that I made with points.", to, "Nope! You ignored my super logic chains!"

Like, there were no super logic chains. That is WHY I'm suspicious. Unless the first unread post button didn't work, I saw exactly one post explaining your reasoning for Gem, and it wasn't even a very good one, and was based off of the idea that Moogle is CL, or something? I honestly can't even remember, because it didn't stick with me, and you made no cohesive arguments against Gem afterwards. You just went, "LYNCH HIM! He's BAAAAAD."

You and Smarty are both now lighting up more on my radar than you did before. Smarty's saying that it's scummy that I made a move to try to avoid an early lynch, when we need more time to discuss and gather information? It's completely scummy NOT to do that. You're implying that I should "know" key things about you that were decidedly not demonstrated last game, and your chain of logic (If there is one) hasn't been well disclosed, again unlike last game. You haven't once repeated it, no matter how many times I asked, and you try to frame me when I ask you about it, going, "OH LOOK, RPG ASKED ME THIS, NOW I GOTTA SHUT UP SORRY I AM SO BAD". Like, you do that, then later can go, "He shut me down from discussing things!", which is completely untrue, and then make yourself look good, and me look scummy.

I don't trust you or Smarty at all.

[Sifright]

I still think that Sif is scummy, moreso now, especially for telling me that I personally "know" how he thinks and plays, which is ridiculous. He never advocated emotion before, and it's only right after you posted Smarty that he changed from, "Okay, I don't have any other points, aside from that one post that I made with points.", to, "Nope! You ignored my super logic chains!"

Like, there were no super logic chains. That is WHY I'm suspicious. Unless the first unread post button didn't work, I saw exactly one post explaining your reasoning for Gem, and it wasn't even a very good one, and was based off of the idea that Moogle is CL, or something? I honestly can't even remember, because it didn't stick with me, and you made no cohesive arguments against Gem afterwards. You just went, "LYNCH HIM! He's BAAAAAD."


Hopefully every one else can see through this rather easily as i've posted at least three times with my reasoning.

Now onto why your post is a bunch of rubbish :)

MLP Mafia game quotes showing me using emotive reasoning and being desperate.

Either people sack up and trust me and Karesh. Karesh who role claimed fucking day one at that or it's game for town, I don't presume to know for sure who mafia to be fucking honest I have almost no clue. the thing is game IS almost over. At some point the town needs to start trusting some one or we lose well guess what that point is fucking now

We are now in day 3 if I had been lynched day fucking one it would have been one thing but Lynching me on day 3 will fuck the town over hugely.

You aren't seeing that the day the thing happens makes a huge deal. If i'm lynched now mafia kill another one in the night and so to does the sk presumably and the Vig. We go from 15 to 11, That means the mafia can win THE NEXT GAME DAY

Seriously though it beggars belief that you are doing to me exactly the same shit nikose did to snake.

Edit: Also whilst arguments to emotion are some what foolish in that they don't bring anything to the table every one needs to be aware of the urgency and the importance of this game day. It's seriously a big deal if we as town fuck up today the game is unwinnable.

Well fine if you really want to push this along to the final day where it will be mislynch and lose well fine lets do it because I can't be fucked with this any more. :)

Unvote: Whoever

Vote: Sifright


Town can go bugger it's self now Doctor whooves is bowing out.

Bullshit, I wanted to be killed EARLY ON when my death gave us 100% proof of an unkillable night roler. Killing me now is fucking stupid, but i don't give a shit now. Your logic is so flawed it's unreal. Blatent Mafia.





So thats a bunch quotes with me being rather emotional, something you are claiming I don't do, something you forced me into last game when you were scum, the fact you are doing the same thing now mis-characterizing my posts and lying about your own knowledge of my play style when you DID THE EXACT SAME THING TO ME LAST MAFIA GAME. Says an awful lot about your current alignment.

OK, because you can't seem to search through a mere 6 page thread i'll quote all of the times I explain my reasoning, which you've never actually explained how it's wrong, for some one who professes to follow core principles of rationality you really aren't doing a good job of actually rationally debunking my arguments. No you are talking around them or entirely misrepresenting them.

Okay so lets start it off

Unvote:Revolving Ocelot

Vote:Geminex

Role I think he has Cult Leader

Play style changed dramatically from last game lots of what feels like faux insecurity lots of hedging about player roles especially the attempt to move thoughts away from my suggested cult-mafia interaction on moogle and suggesting moogle had a suicide role despite the fact that moogles death did nothing.

This is my first post where I basically explain my hunch and some small reasoning on it.

I'll be honest, I don't know what tells you if someone is culty or not. The only game we had a cult in, they were all killed off N1.

The thing is though, I think the cult is scary, since they can get powerful, instead of just leaving the town weakened. And people want to react to that. But I'm holding off on actually voting yet, since you guys have just sort of gone, "Well, he's culty by acting like a culty dude." If there's reason to believe that he's cult, I'd like to know it, but until then, you guys could be "independently" verifying that, "Man, he's a cult dude.", while being the cult yourself.

I have no idea about that whole thing though, so I'm not gonna vote based off of it. RO, on the other hand, is lighting up almost as much as Aldurin. The fact that he wanted the town to throw away a lynch is really suspicious.



Understandable, Let me clarify my position then with some quotes from Geminex plus my analysis of them afterwards. To begin with let's show the Night 1 post again

As the day dawns, you wake up to a string of grisly murders and crimes.

A child wearing a propeller beanie was shot in the head from behind, and was found holding a bloody knife. He was found lying next to the body of a woman in a sunhat, brutally stabbed to death by the child.

A man wearing a trilby was later seen standing on top of the bridge, before jumping off. His trilby later washed ashore, and he is presumed dead.

A man wearing goggles was found in his home/laboratory on the edge of town, in several pieces, hacked to death.

In addition, there was a break-in at the home of Aldurin, although nothing appears to have been taken.

Fenris (shot to death), Kerensky (stabbed to death), Moogle (suicide), and Bard (hacked to death) are DEAD.

Night 1 over, Day 2 start. 9 to lynch.

From this we can see that a player randomly suicided (Moogle), We don't have knowledge of his role or alignment but there are a few things we can tell straight away firstly the suicide hasn't caused any other effects at least for the first night.

My post nearly immediately afterwards shows my thoughts on what the night flavor text amounts to, ofcourse I could be wrong but I don't believe my analysis of the night flavor text to be in error. Fenris is clearly the SK as a child murderer certainly doesn't fit MO of the Mafia nor in truth of the Vigilante. The next kill we have is Fenris being shot in the back Initially my thoughts were it could be either the Mafia or the Vigilante however the next kill on Bard nixed that thought as the Mafia have in the past performed murders in exactly that manner slicing and hacking the corpse into pieces is an effective scare tactic and was used by the Mafia in real life in the past.

Moogles death/suicide at first came as a bit of a shock to me as I didn't see what could have caused it how ever on reflection I realized that if there is a cult and that they could recruit Mafia then the cult would very quickly grow to powerful so instead of recruiting mafia players the cult leader instead kills Mafia players.

Now we come to where I start to get some evidence for my thoughts on Geminex being the cult leader.

Pity about moogle. Waste of a good trilby hat, that. I guess his night 1 death was part of his role, though? And he had to avoid arousing suspicion? He did that fairly well, so well done moogle.
...
I'm assuming that he is dead? According to the flavor text, we only find his hat. But even if he survived the fall, a man can't live without his hat, can he? : o

Bard. Scientist's goggles. Assuming he's town. Maybe an inventor of some sort? That's the closest thing I can think of that fits the scientist role. If so... well, fuck. Inventors are usually pretty strong, aren't they?
If Fen was our SK, then I guess it'd be safe to assume thar Bard got hacked to death by the mafia. If so, any idea why that would've happened? Bard didn't seem like a particularly agressive player, at all. All he really did was call moogle and earl suspicious. But Moogle was suicidal and I think pretty much everyone has called earl suspcious.

First let's look at his couple of line, he tries to paint moogles death as part of his role and congratulates him on his success in avoiding suspicion day 1. This flagged Gem up for me pretty quickly. One we don't have any information on Moogles actual role and two his attempt to paint Moogles role as a suicide one doesn't make much sense on the face of it. Moving more odd hedging and floundering about whether he is alive or not. Personally I think this part of his post amounts to jokey fluff not much in the way of a tell but being day 2 any jokey posts are little suspicious as things are much more serious now. The end of his post calling Moogle suicidal again as if it were part of his role.


Huh. But why would the flavor text for that be suicide? I mean, I agree that there's probably a cult, and that maybe mafiates do die when they get recruited (to prevent the mafiate from betraying his allies). But why suicide?

Checking mafiascum right now, and apparently suicidal roles exist, while being uncommon. So... why not suicidal?

The suicidal roles shown in mafiascum wiki are bombs used to target other players taking them selves out along with their target. I've not seen any roles on that wiki that kill theselves and do nothing else. This was the second medium tell for me about Geminex. So this is the reason I am voting for him along with his other minor tells. Outside of what I've said already the largest of his scum tells his is wildly divergent play style/tactics from last game.


So in that post I show alot more information for why I believe what I do and why I think Geminex is being disingenous and trying to cover up information by steering people to think away from the existence of a cult initially but once it's brought up openly he still worked in a way to minimise people thinking there is a cult.


Next we have

Because your rebuttal is basically you going 'twerent me honest guvner" I mean the only way I could have complete 100% undeniable evidence is if i was the PO..


As for the moogle thing...
Seriously? I mean, not to diminish your sleuthing prowess, but I interpreted the data of the nightkill. It told us a player had committed suicide. I assumed that the suicidal player had the suicidal role, given that the situation matched the description of this role pretty exactly. I even posted a link (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Suicidal) to back up my argument, which you apparently didn't notice.

Mainly because in Mafia you always have to look underneath what some one is saying or what information is provided to glean info from people who are scum, basically taking info at face value unless you consider it from every view point first in mafia is a terrible idea. Given that a suicide role would be pointless and utterly bastardly of bookworm something I don't think bookworm would do taking it at face value is ridiculous. Now with you trying to take it at face value as cult leader makes total sense because it's attempt to make people think "Huh, dude suicided nothing to see here" It's way of trying to hide the existence of the cult

My point is, I'm not making wild, manipulative conjenctures here. I made the logical argument that the guy who commited suicide might have done that because he was suicidal. I don't see how you can consider that culty.

I made the same point above basically taking it face value is ridiculous and treating it as a cult mafia interaction makes alot more sense, the only reason to make it look like it is face value is basically if you are trying obfuscate info.


As for Sifright's latest post, again. I was throwing options out there. When you guys made logical counter-arguments, I accepted those. I didn't go "THE CULT IS DEAD NOBODY ARGUE". I first assumed that moogle had been suicidal, which I thought was a reasonable assumption. When the cult-mafia interaction was brought up, I thought that it would make sense for the cultist to die, rather than the deadly mafiate. I suggested both possibilities, yes. But there's a difference between making an argument and trying to force an argument on others.

No you worked to minimise conversation around the topic initially and then when it brought up by me you tried to move in away to makes people skeptical of whether Moogle was the recruiter or not trying to obfuscate and make people think the cult is gone




My rebuttal will be in bold in your quote


Where in I respond to one of Geminexs post. I still can't believe this I mean I went back over the MLP mafia game and when I actually ignored every one elses advice for who to vote for a reasoned shit through I had FOS: lists that included every single mafia player and one innocent. My logic isn't flawed I know that much, I could still be wrong but it's not because My inferences and way of thinking is incorrect it's because I lack information to allow me to make a different conclusion, The fact you are repainting all my actions as something completely different is so scummy and like last game nothing baring the po telling me you are town will make believe it now.

My FOS list in case I'm night killed.

FOS:GEM (Cult leader)
FOS:Rpgdemon (Cultist or Mafia defending Geminex to hard and with out the ability to know and repainting all my actions as something completely different.) Scum strategy to deal with vocal players as they come across as suspicious any way so it's easy to push suspicion onto them with subtle manipulations of previous narative.

Hawk and a bunch of other townies in the previous game were lead to believe i was scum in exactly the same manner you are trying to push now Rpgdemon.

[Sifright]

Full Fos list.

FOS:Geminex (Cult leader)
FOS:Aldurin (Mafia, due to Roleclaim)
FOS:Karesh (Mafia, Conditional defending aldurin if aldurin is mafia so is Karesh)
FOS:Rpgdemon (Cultist or Mafia, lots of defending Gem attemping to rewrite history and push suspicion onto my self)
FOS:Inbred Chocobo (Mafia. Wanting every one to ignore previous game evidence, reasoning is okay to suggest placing less weight on such evidence, it's not okay to suggest removing an entire avenue of information for town.)
FOS:Sleazy (Mafia. odd behavior and stating that all long length posts are not helpful, this only true if adding nothing to the current topic, role claim pushes him down the list until we get more information from either a PO reveal or counter claim.) -ps addendum I reread his post doesn't look like he is suggesting that he will ignore the text just that large posts are useless.... :\


I am aware that is more players than I believe scum exist,

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

FOS:Karesh (Mafia, Conditional defending aldurin if aldurin is mafia so is Karesh)


That doesn't even remotely follow as a solid argument.

[Sifright]

I didn't say it was a solid argument, if I had a solid argument for lynching you I would be targeting you with a lynch. That is my entire FOS:list It's not ordered from top suspicion to bottom. Still, your defense of him didn't make a huge amount of sense and your attempt to write his roleclaim off as a joke didn't feel acceptable to me. My suspicion on you is conditional if aldurin turns out to be town I don't feel you are a mafia candidate because i've nothing else to go on.

Top to bottom suspicion would order it thusly.

Gem.
Rpgdemon
Aldurin
Inbred
Sleazy
Karesh

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I didn't say it was a solid argument, if I had a solid argument for lynching you I would be targeting you with a lynch. That is my entire FOS:list It's not ordered from top suspicion to bottom. Still, your defense of him didn't make a huge amount of sense and your attempt to write his roleclaim off as a joke didn't feel acceptable to me. My suspicion on you is conditional if aldurin turns out to be town I don't feel you are a mafia candidate because i've nothing else to go on.

If it's not a solid argument there wasn't much reason to put it there. Maybe the list wouldn't exceed your potential scum limit if you removed all of the people that you're just sort of kinda maybe thinking might be scum.

Regardless, the concept itself is rather silly. It's the same sort of logic that means everyone who voted for Snake is scum. Why else would they kill a townie, right?
Oh wait it's because people are not omniscient. A lot of people voted for Snake because they didn't know whether or not he was scum, it turns out he wasn't.
I defended Aldurin because I didn't believe he was scum. Time may prove me wrong, but until such a point that I see further evidence of it I remain thoroughly unconvinced.

[Sifright]

Actually, alot of people explained their reasoning for lynching snake and their reasoning had nothing to do with him being town or not.

Also ofcourse town players aren't omniscient that is obvious, on the other hand consider that the Mafia know the alignment of all their own players and know that every one else is aligned against them. This gives them the ability to target players and push a lynch on people when others are voting for them with spurious reasoning. I would be thoroughly surprised if at least two or three living mafia players didn't partake in the lynch on snake.

Does that mean every one involved in the snake lynch is suspicious? To a slight degree yes, but it's only minor weighting towards the likelyhood of them being scum. You can argue that mafia won't vote like that as a cohesive group to obfuscate their voting trends but thats frankly not needed by them because day 1 we've no way to piece together who isn't and is mafia baring bizarre mistakes.

My FOS:list is up there incase I get nightkilled later, my suspicions have borne fruit in the past in MLP mafia I managed to hit every single scum player as a target and I'm not willing to let my thoughts and notes die with me, thus putting the information I have up regardless of how tenuous my suspicion on you might have been is both the sensible and correct action for a towny to take. Town needs the information other townies have to make rational decisions, one thing for me which I use as an indicator of a scum player is how little attention a player put towards any one outside of their lynch target.

[P-Sleazy]

Please excuse the lack of content in this one. at work. don't want to die. Posting from phone. Not sure where vote count stands.

## unvote: gem
## vote: rpgdemon?

Can we get a vote count?

[BahamutFlare]

I just thought of something with Aldurin. Our guess is someone investigated him. Can't inventors investigate? What if it was Bard? And what if Moogle purposely voted AFTER the voting ended to make it seem like he wanted Aldurin to die. He would think that it wouldn't count and so much suspicion is taken off of Aldurin.

[Ravashak]

Unofficial vote count

P-Sleazy: 4
Revolving Ocelot
Geminex
BahamutFlare
Smarty McBarrelpants

rpgdemon: 2
Sifright
P-Sleazy

Sifright: 1
Inbred Chocobo

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I keep getting distracted from doing what I should have done yesterday.
Ironically, the main distraction is completing the outline for a speech I should have had done a week ago.

## Vote: P-Sleazy
Sleazy's claim sort of reminds me of the claim I made in the last game. It wasn't until deep in late game that I was confirmed, and that was only indirectly. It's hard to test or check a bulletproof role, and the PO won't be able to confirm him one way or the other for a long while, unless he happens to get lucky and compound a strong scum list early on.

Truth be told I think Sif deserves closer scrutiny at the moment, but Sleazy is the closest to death so I'm stuck with that for now.

[Sifright]

I keep getting distracted from doing what I should have done yesterday.
Ironically, the main distraction is completing the outline for a speech I should have had done a week ago.

## Vote: P-Sleazy
Sleazy's claim sort of reminds me of the claim I made in the last game. It wasn't until deep in late game that I was confirmed, and that was only indirectly. It's hard to test or check a bulletproof role, and the PO won't be able to confirm him one way or the other for a long while, unless he happens to get lucky and compound a strong scum list early on.

Truth be told I think Sif deserves closer scrutiny at the moment, but Sleazy is the closest to death so I'm stuck with that for now.

The logic behind this literally makes me cry. given his role claim and how close he is to actually being lynched that you would risk it with out a counter claim pushes you much much higher up the suspicion list.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

The logic behind this literally makes me cry. given his role claim and how close he is to actually being lynched that you would risk it with out a counter claim pushes you much much higher up the suspicion list.

Sif the ultimate truth of it is that anyone can claim anything they want, whether or not it's true. We can't keep on allowing roleclaims to deter suspicion. This is, what, the third time the accused has roleclaimed to get the votes off?

There's a severe lack of actual support to the claim. Speaking from experience, a night immune townie role makes you feel pretty strong. All you need to do is ensure your survival from lynches.
Sleazy, in my mind, hasn't acted in a manner that I find appropriate. Perhaps indeed that is a difference in our play styles. But it reeks of something more.

I know your suspicions are fairly good, but my intiutions are usually on the money as well. You agree that Sleazy is suspicious, so why is him claiming to be something make so much of a difference?
From the beginning it must have entered your mind, right? That he might be some important town role?
What difference does it possibly make?

[Sifright]

Sif the ultimate truth of it is that anyone can claim anything they want, whether or not it's true. We can't keep on allowing roleclaims to deter suspicion. This is, what, the third time the accused has roleclaimed to get the votes off?

There's a severe lack of actual support to the claim. Speaking from experience, a night immune townie role makes you feel pretty strong. All you need to do is ensure your survival from lynches.
Sleazy, in my mind, hasn't acted in a manner that I find appropriate. Perhaps indeed that is a difference in our play styles. But it reeks of something more.

I know your suspicions are fairly good, but my intiutions are usually on the money as well. You agree that Sleazy is suspicious, so why is him claiming to be something make so much of a difference?
From the beginning it must have entered your mind, right? That he might be some important town role?
What difference does it possibly make?


Okay, I can kind of understand where you are coming from. I admit he is suspicious but and it's a big but, The main reason for my suspicion towards him is his low activity with low content. The problem with that is that it's an Inexperienced Town power role and mafia tell. So his roleclaim at this stage of the game makes lynching him a mistake. Aldurin is some one I firmly believe to be scum, PO has investigated him. Sleazy is some one with a medium to high chance of being scum due to his low post activity and the minor tells to do with post size complaints aimed at every one. Given my relative certainty that moogle was mafia, they are down to four or three players throw in that the PO potentially investigates him tonight the po would then have knowledge of two mafia if he is, and you can be damn sure that the PO revealing himself to get two mafia players lynched is worth it.

That is why a Lynch on Sleazy is such a bad idea AT this moment.

[P-Sleazy]

wait, its entered your mind that I'm an important town role? Also you believe sif is more suspicious yet you vote me cause I'm closer to death?

[rpgdemon]

The whole, "You defended X argument, must be aligned with X" thing actually strikes me as a particularly bad idea.

If people have poor logic, and you don't think that the logic is sound, then it's good for the town NOT to follow through with the course of action that has flaws in it. Even if it saves a scum on one day, it makes sure that the town only votes for legitimate targets, which will hurt the scum and help the town in the long run.

By saying that making a defense for someone is suspicious, Sif, you're saying, "Let faulty logic be okay, don't try to think for yourself, follow the herd", which is absolutely abhorrent to be telling the town.

First let's look at his couple of line, he tries to paint moogles death as part of his role and congratulates him on his success in avoiding suspicion day 1. This flagged Gem up for me pretty quickly. One we don't have any information on Moogles actual role and two his attempt to paint Moogles role as a suicide one doesn't make much sense on the face of it. Moving more odd hedging and floundering about whether he is alive or not. Personally I think this part of his post amounts to jokey fluff not much in the way of a tell but being day 2 any jokey posts are little suspicious as things are much more serious now. The end of his post calling Moogle suicidal again as if it were part of his role.

The one thing that I find suspicious here is that he's saying that Moogle had to avoid suspicion. THAT strikes me as having known something about Moogle's role that wasn't suicidal, and accidentally letting it slip. Saying that Moogle was probably a suicide role really isn't suspicious, since he's linking the role right out of the wiki, saying, "I think this is what he had."

The fact that he says that Moogle had to avoid suspicion though, I missed. I was blinded by the fact that you were calling him out on trying to conjecture what Moogle's role was, and get answers. That he says Moogle had to avoid suspicion makes me think he was trying to pad his post with some details about, "Oh, Moogle's suicidal, so this means X", where he forgets that X isn't actually a well known fact. I almost did that last game as SK, when I was going to say something like, "And we know that the SK is going to hit X", when I was the only one who actually knew that.

I still think that you are scum too, though. I'm guessing that you're mafia, and Gem is cult, or vice versa. You could have elaborated on your theories, rather than just going, "I don't wanna talk about it! I must be wrong because I was questioned!", and brought attention to the important fact of Gem knowing something he absolutely should not have knowledge of, if he were a vanilla townie.

My suspects:
-Gem
-Sif
-Smarty
-P-Sleazy (Lack of a counterclaim means nothing, I just didn't want him to hit the vote cap without proper discussion)
-Aldurin

I don't think that anyone who defends someone on that list deserves to go straight onto it though, since if I'm wrong, I'd like to know that, and not have someone go, "I can't defend them, since then I get put on the list!".

Given Gem's outside knowledge though, he's definitely the one with the biggest "real" lead. Since I can't think of a valid reason to know, I'm going to:

##Vote: Geminex

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Apologies to Sif but a full response to your post will have to wait until I'm out of class.
Nonetheless, I see your point as well... it just would be easier to believe if I weren't thinking that you're also some manner of Scum roll, acting in defense of your fellow.

wait, its entered your mind that I'm an important town role? Also you believe sif is more suspicious yet you vote me cause I'm closer to death?

Pretty much, yes.
I've considered the possibility that you're an important town role, but I find it unlikely at best. Your roleclaim doesn't really do much to change that.
And, yes. If I'm given the choice between pointlessly voting Sif and killing you when I think both are reasonably good choices, I will vote for you.

[rpgdemon]

Aldurin is some one I firmly believe to be scum, PO has investigated him.

Incidentally, I don't think that relying on the PO to come out and tell us that Aldurin is scum is a good idea. We're all pretty sure that he is, and the PO could be killed off without our knowledge in the night. On top of that, we're not even sure the break in IS the PO, yet. It could have been a watcher type role, where they would have seen any night actions taken by/with Aldurin. If he didn't do anything at night (Had no nightkill, but was still scum), we'd have nothing on him.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

We're all pretty sure that he is, and the PO could be killed off without our knowledge in the night.

Except for me and anyone the fuck else that doesn't think he's scum.
I'm guessing you didn't really mean to do so, but don't speak like that. You don't represent the town or the opinions of all within the town.

[Geminex]

The fact that he says that Moogle had to avoid suspicion though, I missed. I was blinded by the fact that you were calling him out on trying to conjecture what Moogle's role was, and get answers. That he says Moogle had to avoid suspicion makes me think he was trying to pad his post with some details about, "Oh, Moogle's suicidal, so this means X", where he forgets that X isn't actually a well known fact. I almost did that last game as SK, when I was going to say something like, "And we know that the SK is going to hit X", when I was the only one who actually knew that.
That was just deduction. The only thing a town-aligned suicidal role can do to 'help' town is avoid getting lynched (so the town doesn't waste a lynch) and try to maybe attract a nightkill. Hence, for moogle to be 'useful' to us, if he was suicidal, he would have to avoid getting lynched. He avoided all major suspicision. So, if he was suicidal, he would have done his job.

There was no outside knowlege here, plain logic.

What kind of role do you think I'd have, that I would have background knowlege about moogle's suicidal tendencies? Like, can you construct some sort of plausible scenario here?

[Sifright]

Rpgdemon, I will not preempt the PO, If he has information that Aldurin is not infact scum and we go ahead and lynch the fuck out of him and he turns out not to be scum we will effectively kill the value the PO has. My only worry is that the PO is already dead. If Bard was the PO we will find out tonight when there are no break ins.

Voting for Geminex is actually a bad idea, as town doesn't need to kill the cult now that the information about Gem is out there. Mafia or the vigilante will hopefully target him for a night kill. It's senseless to waste a lynch on him given that postulate when we can lynch a different player and learn about mafia/town interactions.

[Sifright]

That was just deduction. The only thing a town-aligned suicidal role can do to 'help' town is avoid getting lynched (so the town doesn't waste a lynch) and try to maybe attract a nightkill. Hence, for moogle to be 'useful' to us, if he was suicidal, he would have to avoid getting lynched. He avoided all major suspicision. So, if he was suicidal, he would have done his job.

There was no outside knowlege here, plain logic.

What kind of role do you think I'd have, that I would have background knowlege about moogle's suicidal tendencies? Like, can you construct some sort of plausible scenario here?

Hehehe, this is so bad I can't quite believe I am reading it. given that day 1 it would have been BETTER for town if he had been lynched if that was his actual role taking your post at face value it doesn't even work. Your excuse for your reasoning and posting gets worse.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Hehehe, this is so bad I can't quite believe I am reading it. given that day 1 it would have been BETTER for town if he had been lynched if that was his actual role taking your post at face value it doesn't even work. Your excuse for your reasoning and posting gets worse.


Day 1 we have potential to kill a Scum just as any other day.
If moogle's going to die anyway, then yeah, killing him would be a waste of the lynch.

[rpgdemon]

Day 1 we have potential to kill a Scum just as any other day.
If moogle's going to die anyway, then yeah, killing him would be a waste of the lynch.

Yeah, a day one lynch on the suicidal is literally the exact same as a no vote. Why would that be a favorable solution?

[Sifright]

not really I've never ever seen a mafia game day 1 wherein a scum player has been killed.

[rpgdemon]

So, you're advocating a no-lynch day one then, on the premise that no one hits scum so we shouldn't bother with a lynch? That's really not good reasoning.

[Sifright]

Yeah, a day one lynch on the suicidal is literally the exact same as a no vote. Why would that be a favorable solution?

technically it wouldn't the reason not to favor no-lynch over any target is because it exposes voting patterns for late game, Mafia nearly never get hit day 1 by a lynch, I've not played in that many games but i've looked through a bunch of different ones and i've not seen a mafia factionate get hit day one before.

Functionally, No-lynch and lynching Moogle would have the same effect I guess, but given that we hit a townie any way hitting moogle would have actually been better for us as that way we don't lose two townies that day/night cycle I would have thought that was obvious?

[Geminex]

Yeah, a day one lynch on the suicidal is literally the exact same as a no vote. Why would that be a favorable solution?

Mostly because the lynch is the town's most powerful weapon. There's a reason you don't want to no-lynch on day 1, and that's because a lynch does a bunch of things. It reveals information, it has a chance of killing scum. It's something you don't want to waste.

But aside from this. What plausible scenario can you suggest in which I'd have an antitown role and know about Moogle's suicidal role?

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Surely suicidal townies must get something to balance their role out.

[Sifright]

No I don't favor No-lynching, I've never been for that notice how I actually targeted aldurin day one? Yes/no? Karesh did favor a no-lynch policy day one you aren't batting an eyelid at that though?

I'd just like to point that people REALLY need to not let confirmation bias blind them, i've struggled with it alot as well but it's getting incredibly frustrating as people constantly misinterpret what i say.

Regardless, Moogle wasn't a townie I'm not going to get drawn into a conversation about a hypothetical on him being a suicidal townie for the previously mentioned reasons for christ sakes guys If any of you keep this going on this line of thinking I'm going to repeatedly quote my self where i say how much of a bastard bookworm would have to be to give that role out.

I am for day 1 lynches to expose voting patterns and on the incredibly slim chance we hit a mafia target.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

No I don't favor No-lynching, I've never been for that notice how I actually targeted aldurin day one? Yes/no? Karesh did favor a no-lynch policy day one you aren't batting an eyelid at that though?


Noooope.
That's another scum point against you for misrepresenting the discussions we had early on. I refuse to believe you would just forget the repeated times I mentioned that my not wanting to be a part of the day one vote is not the same as advocating a day one no lynch vote entirely.

[Sifright]

Surely suicidal townies must get something to balance their role out.

If it was a suicide role this is EXACTLY what I would expect to be the case dying night 1 is why this is completely and utterly impossible to me it's why it's so absurd and almost unthinkable that other people didn't pick up on gem saying that straight away.

Rpgdemon keeps getting scummier and scummier to me as KEEPS mis-interpreting what I say in the most horrible fashion possible to make me look bad. Knock it off.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Rpgdemon keeps getting scummier and scummier to me as KEEPS mis-interpreting what I say in the most horrible fashion possible to make me look bad. Knock it off.

Hahaaa hypocrisy.

[Sifright]

Noooope.
That's another scum point against you for misrepresenting the discussions we had early on. I refuse to believe you would just forget the repeated times I mentioned that my not wanting to be a part of the day one vote is not the same as advocating a day one no lynch vote entirely.

Yes your rational was I don't want to be responsible for killing for killing any one day one, which whilst not having quite the same effect as demanding a no-lynch still is bad practice and play. It's a scum tell precisely because it limits the amount of information we can learn from your particular voting patterns and trends. maybe I'm not differentiating between the two differing positions but only because the difference between them is so small and that if every one took your position it would lead to a no lynch.

[Ravashak]

Rpgdemon, I will not preempt the PO, If he has information that Aldurin is not infact scum and we go ahead and lynch the fuck out of him and he turns out not to be scum we will effectively kill the value the PO has. My only worry is that the PO is already dead. If Bard was the PO we will find out tonight when there are no break ins.That is, íf the break in is the PO, and not for example the watcher or a roleblocker (stealing gear needed for night role, pure guessing here, obviously). I don't think we should stare ourselves blind on the possibility that the break in was the PO's work.

Voting for Geminex is actually a bad idea, as town doesn't need to kill the cult now that the information about Gem is out there. Mafia or the vigilante will hopefully target him for a night kill. It's senseless to waste a lynch on him given that postulate when we can lynch a different player and learn about mafia/town interactions.The downside of using a night kill on a presumed cult leader is that we will not get confirmation on whether it was actually the cult leader. Just look at the result of night 1. We can conclude with reasonable certainty that Fenris was a killing role due to beign killed just after the act, and due to the choice of headgear, we assume Moogle was mafia.

Because of the uncertainty a night kill would provide, I'd prefer to lynch Geminex. For all we know, he might be a cultee trying to grab as much attention as he can, to get night killed so the leader stays alive.

Vote: Geminex

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Yes your rational was I don't want to be responsible for killing for killing any one day one, which whilst not having quite the same effect as demanding a no-lynch still is bad practice and play. It's a scum tell precisely because it limits the amount of information we can learn from your particular voting patterns and trends. maybe I'm not differentiating between the two differing positions but only because the difference between them is so small and that if every one took your position it would lead to a no lynch.

Again, no. Because as I said if it came down to it I would vote.
Besides which, as it's a thing I do every single game it's not exactly a good scum tell, is it? Would you have lynched me in Pony mafia for it?

[Professor Smarmiarty]

A townie who explodes night 1 is the stupidest role I've ever heard of. It's a waste of time discussing that ars a role unless we also going to discuss my theory that Moogle was a townie who explodes if exactly 305 posts are made in a day because he is scared of the number 305
FFS.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

A townie who explodes night 1 is the stupidest role I've ever heard of. It's a waste of time discussing that ars a role unless we also going to discuss my theory that Moogle was a townie who explodes if exactly 305 posts are made in a day because he is scared of the number 305
FFS.

Yeah, like I said there's gotta be something more to it.
Suicide was likely meant to be a response to some kind of stimulus. One I believe was meant to occur later in the game.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

Ravashak raises a point I hadn't thought about which is that we are not getting night killed confirmations sa I'd be happy enought to let the mafia or vig off Gem for us.
We would get Gem's hat though I'm not sure what a cult leaders hat would like like (maybe some form of hood or robe?)
If we lynch ourselves we will get information on his role though probably not a lot of information on other peoplle (CL has no allies if the moogle theory is correct so everyone voting or not for Gem is working from the same basic page).
If we can get the votes together I would be willing to pursue a Gem lynch.

[Geminex]

What is the evidence for me being cult? Do any of you have anything, anything at all, other than a minor assumption I made about moogle's role? I made a mistaken assumption. I accepted this mistake and corrected myself as soon as it was pointed out. How does this say 'cult' to you? Why do you assume that it wasn't a mistake? All sifright has brought is an argument based on "GM wouldn't do this", which, while relevant, is something you cannot possibly know. And something I couldn't be expected to consider, because I don't know how bookie runs his games.

And again, it was an assumption. Not even an argument I supported. Just a suggestion I made.

What happened was literally.
My assumption.
Sifright suggesting I might be wrong.
Me asking "Why do you think this?"
Smarty telling me why.
Me going "Oh, that makes sense, let us go with that".

Where, in this sequence of events, do you see the cultist in me?

[Professor Smarmiarty]

I wasn't using the moogle sequence at all in my suspicion. I didn't even think of it when I thought you were cult. I don't think I've even addressed that argument.
My argument is based entirely on your passive engagement to keep yourself in a beta position while recruiting low actives (moogs)
To be honest though, I think maybe we should let the mafia/vig deal with it on reflection. This is going to fall into the whole "telling night what to do" but mafia can't risk a cult leader who cna murder their members (assuming tht is whats happening) and if I was mafia I would totally target anybody I had a suspicion of being CL regardless of what people had suggested in the day. It wouldbe too risky for them not to unless they hae a better guess at the cult leader.


Also Karesh the whole "I'm not gonig to vote for anybody day 1" is outrageouly scummy. you may do it eery game but all that means is we shouldb asically lynch you every game.
Because it completely deprives the town of information which helps scum and allows you to coast through day 1 giving no tells. The "i'll vote if I'lh ave to " is even worse cause then you can just put the stake in at the last minute to whomever is non-scum out of the candidates available with none of the blame.
Claiming you do it every game is not a defence because it just means you are doing scum actions every game nd should be lynched.

[Aldurin]

I just thought of something with Aldurin. Our guess is someone investigated him. Can't inventors investigate? What if it was Bard? And what if Moogle purposely voted AFTER the voting ended to make it seem like he wanted Aldurin to die. He would think that it wouldn't count and so much suspicion is taken off of Aldurin.

You're severely overthinking what probably was simply bad timing on his part.

And for those of you who still hold suspicion of me, just please hold tight until the PO can clear my innocence (whoever it is should eventually claim and show their results).

For the current situation, I'm confused at why you all are getting the suspicion that Gem is specifically the Cult Leader instead of the general "I think he's scum." feeling?

[Geminex]

My argument is based entirely on your passive engagement to keep yourself in a beta position while recruiting low actives (moogs)
I dunno. Again, I thought I was pretty active, especially in day 2. I was more uncertain on day 1, admittedly, but that was due to a lack of information.

And while I have been engaging with major posters a lot, I would imagine that this is because major posters just tend to have a lot to engage in. I haven't been hiding behind anyone, I've been trying to help the town. I agreed with people on occasion, and disagreed on others. That's all natural.

At this point it's really a case of 'No I didn't' versus 'Yes you did', so msome examples of my passive engagement might be good?

[rpgdemon]

Rpgdemon keeps getting scummier and scummier to me as KEEPS mis-interpreting what I say in the most horrible fashion possible to make me look bad. Knock it off.

If I misinterpret what you say, it's only because you don't make it clear what you're trying to say. You advocated something that is pretty much a no-lynch as the best theoretical course of action for the town. I say, no, that's a terrible idea.

Plus, every time I say anything, you go, "Look how I can twist what he said into him maligning me!", which makes this point just plain ridiculous.

[Sifright]

except I didn't advocate anything, what I said was that Moogle being lynched would have been better for town if he had a suicide role than lynching Snake given that both are town but one was going to die any way. You then straight up reinterpreted that to mean HO MAN HE IS PROPOSING A NO-LYNCH POLICY. I mean what? Seriously.. how you can pretend I was even advocating anything of the sort is.. ridiculous. No, you wouldn't be doing that unless you are scum, you did this to me last mafia game and you are doing it again.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

except I didn't advocate anything, what I said was that Moogle being lynched would have been better for town if he had a suicide role thagain.

You can say "It was better for town" now because we know for a fact that Snake was innocent. But from the perspective of the time it's not so easy. If you know a person is going to die Night one (Which we don't even know was always going to be the case since we haven't confirmed why moogle suicided) then voting for Moogle is still giving up our Lynch.

[rpgdemon]

except I didn't advocate anything, what I said was that Moogle being lynched would have been better for town if he had a suicide role than lynching Snake given that both are town but one was going to die any way. You then straight up reinterpreted that to mean HO MAN HE IS PROPOSING A NO-LYNCH POLICY. I mean what? Seriously.. how you can pretend I was even advocating anything of the sort is.. ridiculous. No, you wouldn't be doing that unless you are scum, you did this to me last mafia game and you are doing it again.

No, if I were scum, I'd be going with the multiple trains that we have going on other people, and not bother trying to cast suspicion on other people, since we have a lot of people that I'd just be able to jump on.

Last game, I was SK, and needed everyone evar dead. Even so, I was playing it how I would play a town role, since I needed to pretend to be town until it was just me and someone else there. My suspicions last game, and how I accused people last game were genuine. As a townie, you need to be proactive. To try to stop someone from bringing up points (As you are doing. Every point that I make, you go, "NOPE! LOOK! HERE! SLANTING HIS WORDS!") is decidedly scummy.

If I start playing the way you want me to, I'd stop making any points, or any defenses of any player, because I could possibly be wrong which would paint me in a bad light. Your strategies, if you're not scum, help the scum, and are incredibly scummy.

There's a way of defeating a point without calling someone scum, which you don't seem to understand. Every time someone makes a point that you think is flawed, your response is, "YOU'RE SCUM!". That's why your scum list is larger than the total number of scum, because you equate a point that you think is wrong with the player being scum.

Because you keep doing that, you lend credence to my idea that you are yourself scum. You have twisted my words many times, and done everything that you accuse me of doing, because you're sure that I'm scum for having misread something, or having misinterpreted what you said. In the latest case, yes, I thought you were scum, because your strategy is helpful to the scum. When you think a player is scum, it colors your view, and now suddenly something that would be a minor knock against someone becomes more proof for the cause. You mistake this as scum trying to twist your words. You've done many minor knocks, which have been taken as more proof for you being scum.

Now that I've made this post, though, I think you might just be using bad strategy. Someone being wrong doesn't make them scum, and you need to understand that. You need more criteria, and you can't focus on checking out one person. I see that the more pressure that I put on you makes you want to prove me to be scum in turn, because you don't want to be lynched. Whether that's because you're scum, and hope that I'm a differently aligned scum, or if you're a townie and you think that anyone who makes the mistake of thinking that a townie is scum is clearly scum, I don't know. You're not cleared in my list, but I can easily see you thinking that any wrong accusation = scum, which is flat out untrue.

Aldurin makes a really good point, we're all getting worked up over "Gem is cult!", with no evidence aside from just general feel. It's like people are getting worked up over it, and just assuming, "Gem = Cult", and using the rest of the day to play out what else happens. There's as much evidence for Gem being cult as there is for Sif/Smarty being scummates together, or P-Sleazy lying about bulletproof. None of these really have any solid evidence behind them, and I don't know why we're promoting one to such attention over the others.

##unvote: Geminex

This is conditionally unvoted, since I'm going to be busy for most of the day, and I don't want votes getting too high while I'm gone, and auto-lynching. I'd like to see more discussion on everyone's side, before casting a new-new vote.

Gem, who do YOU think is scummy, and why? You've been quiet over there, despite being the center of attention. It's just been, "No, I'm defending myself", without any chance for you to air what you actually think.

[Sifright]

You can say "It was better for town" now because we know for a fact that Snake was innocent. But from the perspective of the time it's not so easy. If you know a person is going to die Night one (Which we don't even know was always going to be the case since we haven't confirmed why moogle suicided) then voting for Moogle is still giving up our Lynch.

http://cache.ohinternet.com/images/thumb/7/73/JeanLucPicardFacepalm.jpg/618px-JeanLucPicardFacepalm.jpg


Yes? did I really need to include that information though isn't it obvious on the face of everything else that has been said already? I can't help but feel i'm getting hugely sidetracked in this so let me explain myself better instead of using a string of small posts like I did before because it's getting mired in misunderstandings as I respond to a different post as some one else responds and then them treating my previous post as a direct response to them when I was responding some one else. Let's start with what started this shitstorm and i'll explain what went through my head and what my posts are actually trying to say given that Rpgdemon is intending to twist what I say to some incredible lengths to make my posts say something other than what i'm intending to convey like he isn't even going this is his HIDDEN intent he is just going this is flat out what he meant which isn't the case.


That was just deduction. The only thing a town-aligned suicidal role can do to 'help' town is avoid getting lynched (so the town doesn't waste a lynch) and try to maybe attract a nightkill. Hence, for moogle to be 'useful' to us, if he was suicidal, he would have to avoid getting lynched. He avoided all major suspicision. So, if he was suicidal, he would have done his job.

There was no outside knowlege here, plain logic.

What kind of role do you think I'd have, that I would have background knowlege about moogle's suicidal tendencies? Like, can you construct some sort of plausible scenario here?

Hehehe, this is so bad I can't quite believe I am reading it. given that day 1 it would have been BETTER for town if he had been lynched if that was his actual role taking your post at face value it doesn't even work. Your excuse for your reasoning and posting gets worse.


Jackassery on my part aside, I saw that post and couldn't help but burst out laughing when i saw it. See the idea of taking moogles suicide at face value never occurred to me at all because it achieved nothing. I'm also not advocating that you have a specific role that would lead to knowledge of Moogles role. Now explanation for the thought that moogle lynching would better for town than Snake.

I wrote that from a point of view of us NOW we already know that SNAKE is TOWN. We know that Moogle suicided Night 1, We don't know why specifically although most(I think) believe it to now be due to Mafia/cultist interaction. From the perspective of HAVING this hindsight and knowledge and Geminex going good job moogle on not getting lynched you helped town! thumbs up brofist. It doesn't make sense! We know that snake is town We don't know the alignment of Moogle although I'm stipulating it's mafia thus going well played Moogle on ensuring the townie got lynched instead of the person with a suicide role makes NO SENSE? See this is the train of logic that ran through my head briefly before i made a jack ass post with me loling.

NEXT people respond to my contentious hypothetical not realizing in part because i didn't frame it well enough and also in part because I allowed there to be some wiggle room to see where people would run with it.

Day 1 we have potential to kill a Scum just as any other day.
If moogle's going to die anyway, then yeah, killing him would be a waste of the lynch.


Yeah, a day one lynch on the suicidal is literally the exact same as a no vote. Why would that be a favorable solution?

I post again in response to Karesh, but rpgdemon beats me to the post.

not really I've never ever seen a mafia game day 1 wherein a scum player has been killed.


Regardless what I was trying to say is that it's not the same as a no-lynch because he could have acted in a way to draw some scum tells get the mafia team to pile on him giving us a decent voting pattern for later on to draw from. This is another reason why I think flat suicide roll is out.

So, you're advocating a no-lynch day one then, on the premise that no one hits scum so we shouldn't bother with a lynch? That's really not good reasoning.

This post then wildly reinterprets what I've said.

So I post again trying to reexplain my point in response to an older rpg post

technically it wouldn't the reason not to favor no-lynch over any target is because it exposes voting patterns for late game, Mafia nearly never get hit day 1 by a lynch, I've not played in that many games but i've looked through a bunch of different ones and i've not seen a mafia factionate get hit day one before.

Functionally, No-lynch and lynching Moogle would have the same effect I guess, but given that we hit a townie any way hitting moogle would have actually been better for us as that way we don't lose two townies that day/night cycle I would have thought that was obvious?



I then post trying to explain my rational better.


No I don't favor No-lynching, I've never been for that notice how I actually targeted aldurin day one? Yes/no? Karesh did favor a no-lynch policy day one you aren't batting an eyelid at that though?

I'd just like to point that people REALLY need to not let confirmation bias blind them, i've struggled with it alot as well but it's getting incredibly frustrating as people constantly misinterpret what i say.

Regardless, Moogle wasn't a townie I'm not going to get drawn into a conversation about a hypothetical on him being a suicidal townie for the previously mentioned reasons for christ sakes guys If any of you keep this going on this line of thinking I'm going to repeatedly quote my self where i say how much of a bastard bookworm would have to be to give that role out.

I am for day 1 lynches to expose voting patterns and on the incredibly slim chance we hit a mafia target.


Hopefully this clears up some of the misunderstanding. At least to the rest of the players I've given up trying to argue it out with you directly now. As I sincerely believe Rpgdemon to be mafia I won't convince him he is wrong because has to much of a vested interest in getting me lynched.

[Sifright]

No, if I were scum, I'd be going with the multiple trains that we have going on other people, and not bother trying to cast suspicion on other people, since we have a lot of people that I'd just be able to jump on.

Last game, I was SK, and needed everyone evar dead. Even so, I was playing it how I would play a town role, since I needed to pretend to be town until it was just me and someone else there. My suspicions last game, and how I accused people last game were genuine. As a townie, you need to be proactive. To try to stop someone from bringing up points (As you are doing. Every point that I make, you go, "NOPE! LOOK! HERE! SLANTING HIS WORDS!") is decidedly scummy.

If I start playing the way you want me to, I'd stop making any points, or any defenses of any player, because I could possibly be wrong which would paint me in a bad light. Your strategies, if you're not scum, help the scum, and are incredibly scummy.

There's a way of defeating a point without calling someone scum, which you don't seem to understand. Every time someone makes a point that you think is flawed, your response is, "YOU'RE SCUM!". That's why your scum list is larger than the total number of scum, because you equate a point that you think is wrong with the player being scum.

Because you keep doing that, you lend credence to my idea that you are yourself scum. You have twisted my words many times, and done everything that you accuse me of doing, because you're sure that I'm scum for having misread something, or having misinterpreted what you said. In the latest case, yes, I thought you were scum, because your strategy is helpful to the scum. When you think a player is scum, it colors your view, and now suddenly something that would be a minor knock against someone becomes more proof for the cause. You mistake this as scum trying to twist your words. You've done many minor knocks, which have been taken as more proof for you being scum.

Now that I've made this post, though, I think you might just be using bad strategy. Someone being wrong doesn't make them scum, and you need to understand that. You need more criteria, and you can't focus on checking out one person. I see that the more pressure that I put on you makes you want to prove me to be scum in turn, because you don't want to be lynched. Whether that's because you're scum, and hope that I'm a differently aligned scum, or if you're a townie and you think that anyone who makes the mistake of thinking that a townie is scum is clearly scum, I don't know. You're not cleared in my list, but I can easily see you thinking that any wrong accusation = scum, which is flat out untrue.

Aldurin makes a really good point, we're all getting worked up over "Gem is cult!", with no evidence aside from just general feel. It's like people are getting worked up over it, and just assuming, "Gem = Cult", and using the rest of the day to play out what else happens. There's as much evidence for Gem being cult as there is for Sif/Smarty being scummates together, or P-Sleazy lying about bulletproof. None of these really have any solid evidence behind them, and I don't know why we're promoting one to such attention over the others.

##unvote: Geminex

This is conditionally unvoted, since I'm going to be busy for most of the day, and I don't want votes getting too high while I'm gone, and auto-lynching. I'd like to see more discussion on everyone's side, before casting a new-new vote.

Gem, who do YOU think is scummy, and why? You've been quiet over there, despite being the center of attention. It's just been, "No, I'm defending myself", without any chance for you to air what you actually think.


No I have larger list of potential scum people, because i'm not an all knowing omniscient being like the Q those are people that have some scum tells and your trying to paint it like every one in the list has done something to me personally which isn't true.

[rpgdemon]

Hopefully this clears up some of the misunderstanding. At least to the rest of the players I've given up trying to argue it out with you directly now. As I sincerely believe Rpgdemon to be mafia I won't convince him he is wrong because has to much of a vested interest in getting me lynched.

No I don't! If I were mafia, I'd have no reason to try to get you lynched, since it doesn't matter.

In this hypothetical world, where I'm mafia, and you're town, what would I gain from trying hard to lynch you? I'd make myself look suspicious, and then when you flip town, I'd make myself look suspicious and incredibly wrong, and given credence to everything you said against me. Nothing about trying to lynch you helps me if I'm mafia.

My suspicions and pressing on you is only worth doing if I'm town, and I think that you're scum. I was adamant in my belief of this earlier, as of my last post, I explained why I'm not so sure anymore, and in fact gave you a defense that reasonably explains your actions. You ignored that huge chunk of the post you quoted though, and continue to misuse my words and misrepresent my points. I didn't at ALL try to paint it as if those people were all against you, because that would be dumb. They're not.

I said that you suspect anyone who you think made a mistake, because it was clearly a scum ploy at incriminating the wrong person.

For all your accusations against me of doing so, you're blatantly misaligning my words, and cherrypicking points to address. Ironically, this time you decided to ignore the part of the post that would be a defensible position for you, while continuing to try to defend your idea that I'm scum by bashing a point that I made against your vendetta against me personally, by applying it to everyone on your scum list.

It's like, you want the benefit of having a defensible reason a townie might act that way, but also want to make sure you can bash me and make me look wrong in every way possible by misusing my words?

[Aldurin]

FoS: Sifright

He's been riding everybody as hard as Snake was D1, just without the colored text. This may be an actual townie effort to flush out scum, but it could easily be trying to detriment and confuse town again, trying to gain protection from the fact that lynching the last person that posted this way was town.

I find it likely that he's scum, trying to maintain a constant stream of posts to maintain a firm position among us while looking like one of the last people we want to get rid of.

[Sifright]

No I don't! If I were mafia, I'd have no reason to try to get you lynched, since it doesn't matter.

In this hypothetical world, where I'm mafia, and you're town, what would I gain from trying hard to lynch you? I'd make myself look suspicious, and then when you flip town, I'd make myself look suspicious and incredibly wrong, and given credence to everything you said against me. Nothing about trying to lynch you helps me if I'm mafia.

My suspicions and pressing on you is only worth doing if I'm town, and I think that you're scum. I was adamant in my belief of this earlier, as of my last post, I explained why I'm not so sure anymore, and in fact gave you a defense that reasonably explains your actions. You ignored that huge chunk of the post you quoted though, and continue to misuse my words and misrepresent my points. I didn't at ALL try to paint it as if those people were all against you, because that would be dumb. They're not.

I said that you suspect anyone who you think made a mistake, because it was clearly a scum ploy at incriminating the wrong person.

For all your accusations against me of doing so, you're blatantly misaligning my words, and cherrypicking points to address. Ironically, this time you decided to ignore the part of the post that would be a defensible position for you, while continuing to try to defend your idea that I'm scum by bashing a point that I made against your vendetta against me personally, by applying it to everyone on your scum list.

It's like, you want the benefit of having a defensible reason a townie might act that way, but also want to make sure you can bash me and make me look wrong in every way possible by misusing my words?

I'd just like to say my post at 8:35pm was written with out any knowledge of the post that you made directly before it at 8:30

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Guys, I just had a revelation (possibly). Been re-reading the thread, trying to make sense of it all, as well as looking over mafiascum again, came across something interesting, which kinda links in to something Karesh said a while back;

Yeah, like I said there's gotta be something more to it.
Suicide was likely meant to be a response to some kind of stimulus. One I believe was meant to occur later in the game.

And I now think he's right, Moogles suicide could have been set off by some other factor, cos let's face it, Moogles death doesn't really make much sense. On the one hand, he could have been a suicide role that dies on night 1, and the fluff supports that, but that's a shitty role and it's doubful Bookie would use that. On the other, based on his hat in the fluff being a mafia hat, he could have been a mafiate that the cult tried to convert, but ultimately killed. That has problems though with the way Moogle died, via suicide, not from a cultist trying to kill him, or just his body being found stabbed or something.

This inevitably lead to the Geminex as CL line of reasoning based on how he reacted to Moogles death, which I still don't really buy either, because it was an easy assumption to make.

So we have 3 possible theories;

1) Moogle was a timed suicide (Pretty Unlikely).

2) Moogle was Cult leader who got killed trying to convert a mafiate. (Unlikely, fluff seems to indicate he was scum based on hat alone).

3) Moogle was a mafia who the CL, possibly Gem, tried to convert and killed (Moogle died of suicide though, rather than more unnatural means)

But there's a 4th possibility that we've all missed, it's a role called Lovers (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lovers). What happens with lovers is that when 1 dies, the other auto-suicides. Kerensky died that night, and his character was a woman. They could totally have been lovers, and the death of Kerensky caused the death of Moogle.

It's hilarious and apparantly a pretty good role, if they had the power to communicate outside the thread, although from the hats in the fluff it seems they were on opposites sides, 1 town 1 mafia, which can also be a lover thing.

Now, I'm not saying it's a definate, but it seems to fit better than the other theories flying about, and I could totally see Bookie throwing something like this in, rather than a bastard role like an unstoppable suicide, or a cult that kills mafiates.

So, thoughts?

[Sifright]

Guys, I just had a revelation (possibly). Been re-reading the thread, trying to make sense of it all, as well as looking over mafiascum again, came across something interesting, which kinda links in to something Karesh said a while back;



And I now think he's right, Moogles suicide could have been set off by some other factor, cos let's face it, Moogles death doesn't really make much sense. On the one hand, he could have been a suicide role that dies on night 1, and the fluff supports that, but that's a shitty role and it's doubful Bookie would use that. On the other, based on his hat in the fluff being a mafia hat, he could have been a mafiate that the cult tried to convert, but ultimately killed. That has problems though with the way Moogle died, via suicide, not from a cultist trying to kill him, or just his body being found stabbed or something.

This inevitably lead to the Geminex as CL line of reasoning based on how he reacted to Moogles death, which I still don't really buy either, because it was an easy assumption to make.

So we have 3 possible theories;

1) Moogle was a timed suicide (Pretty Unlikely).

2) Moogle was Cult leader who got killed trying to convert a mafiate. (Unlikely, fluff seems to indicate he was scum based on hat alone).

3) Moogle was a mafia who the CL, possibly Gem, tried to convert and killed (Moogle died of suicide though, rather than more unnatural means)

But there's a 4th possibility that we've all missed, it's a role called Lovers (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lovers). What happens with lovers is that when 1 dies, the other auto-suicides. Kerensky died that night, and his character was a woman. They could totally have been lovers, and the death of Kerensky caused the death of Moogle.

It's hilarious and apparantly a pretty good role, if they had the power to communicate outside the thread, although from the hats in the fluff it seems they were on opposites sides, 1 town 1 mafia, which can also be a lover thing.

Now, I'm not saying it's a definate, but it seems to fit better than the other theories flying about, and I could totally see Bookie throwing something like this in, rather than a bastard role like an unstoppable suicide, or a cult that kills mafiates.

So, thoughts?

Well, I'd feel hilarious stupid if thats the case, I didn't consider that but it does fit the situation I mean it doesn't lead to any explanations for why Gems actions but coupled with Rpgdemons point about me thinking people making mistakes makes them scum, and now i'm worried i'm barking up the wrong tree.... Unngn