My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[rpgdemon]

Originally Posted by Hawk

Well, if that is the case, then I guess SMBs (if he is the leader) death really didn't bring down the whole cult, the other 2 kills must've been instrumental as well. As unlikely as that sounds. I mean really, what are the chances of 3 different killers hitting all cult members on the same night? Anybody actually care to work out the maths on that?

I shall! Since I am taking the probability class!

It's just 3/21 * 2/21 * 1/21, I think. (There were 21 of us, right?)

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

22 actually. But yeah, ok, I guess it's not as impossible then. Still surprising though.

[Nikose Tyris]

Assuming no revive roles exist:

18 players Remain.
5 Mafiates; 1 Self Aligned SK; 12 Town.

Town has a strong edge over the scum in this game, as we have half-again their numbers.
Mafia has the advantage of knowing each other, and not worrying about hitting one if their own numbers.

Last night was a good thing; We want to find a mafiate- as many mafiates as we can.

[With 3 scum deaths and 1 town death on [Round 1], the outcome was overall favourable.]

[Nikose Tyris]

Daytime, we have the lynch to try and find someone-
1 death[MoonBanished]

Nighttime, we have:
the SK- Random Death, could affect either side [logically more likely to hit town; Cluckles the Cockatrice, turns to stone];
The Vig - Town Friendly killer, could affect either side but will logically try and hit the mafiates [Rainbow Dash, apparently high velocity impacts];
The Mafia, which will kill each night [Probably Nightmare Moon, Lead Astray into the forest].

The only way to confirm a role is to send the person to the moon, from the look of things.

Anything wrong so far?

[Nikose Tyris]

Basically I think we're going to be swinging blind trying to hit mafiates without some sort of direction. I'm unsure of which direction we should be swinging right now. Like, I've already stated my general suspicious re: RPGdemon, Geminex and Sifright but they're not heavy enough anymore for me to push. :/

[Revising Ocelot]

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

As nothing you've really said lines up today. What exactly am I diverting attention away from? The fact that the cult dropped last night? that there's only 3 kill roles in this game and they simul-killed, by incredibly luck, the whole cult?

The fact that at least one person is, in my opinion, not lynched, and you immediately dismiss it as "overthinking".

[Sifright]

I'm pretty suspicious of Snake, my reasoning is that despite bookies cheating the logically fair thing to do would be to boot him out of the game and not have it count as our lynching being taken. After all the entire town didn't cheat only bookie did and we all got punished as a result. I don't know how it's handled in other mafia games but had both my self and gem been GO killed earlier i don't think the day would have been ended and the only difference there is scale.

So... fos:Snake

[Nikose Tyris]

Fenris, can you please confirm that those three are effectively out of game, barring someone returning them to game via special power?

[Fenris]

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

Fenris, can you please confirm that those three are effectively out of game, barring someone returning them to game via special power?

Sí, señor. Those 3 things (check the first post, yo) are this game's equivalent of a nightkill.

[Nikose Tyris]

Thank you Fenris, for confirming something I thought was obvious.