Hatland Mafia - Page 34

Professor Smarmiarty · 10-31-2011, 06:47 AM

And in repsonse to ROs post: most mafias I've played have had night kills explained as well as lots of hints in the flavour text. Not having the roles of people who died at night revealed is very uncommon- in the onesI've plyed anyway.

Ravashak · 10-31-2011, 07:33 AM

First, the lynch. Snake's the Peacemaker, does anyone have some light to shed on what that is? Due to him also being the mayor, I assume it's the same as the mayor in the last game, the ability to decide who gets lynched (or daykill, I guess).
Second thing, the money changing hands. I can think of 2 scenarios for this.
My first idea: Someone has an invisible vote. This means a vote not made in the thread (I checked all votes that were done by throughout the thread, and the last vote count was accurate). If this replaces their normal vote, the candidates for this ability (for lack of better word) are:
1. Fenris (dead),
5. Viridis,
8. Karesh (though that was due to unvote, here Karesh' vote was counted, possible change from public to private vote, though),
11. Geminex,
13. BahamutFlare,
14. greed

The second option is that someone has a (one time?) ability to buy an extra vote. Because we know that it was very close between Snake and Aldurin, with the Secret vote making sure Snake got lynched (it would've been a tie if Moogle was 1 minute faster). This raises supsicion on those voting for Snake, because others could've voted themselves without drawing excessive suspicion:
9. Revolving Ocelot
10. Aldurin
12. Inbred Chocobo
15. Smarty McBarrelpants
18. rpgdemon

The next question is, why? The Secret vote got cast after Snake stated his intent to go inactive, which effectively removed him from the game already. The only other thing it could achieve was to prevent the lynch of Aldurin. Why would anyone try to save Aldurin? Because they're convinved he's town �r they know he's fellow scum.

______

On to the night actions.
I think we can agree that Fenris had a night kill role, presumably the SK. This will leave two night kills remaining, barring role blocking and protecting. The problem now, I feel, is that we do not know which type of killing to pursue most, since we do not know which was the mafia's, and which the vig's (again, assuming that the child with the propellor beanie with a bloody knife was the SK). Then there's Moogle's suicide. I highly doubt he wanted to leave the game, he was getting more active near the end of the day. I'm not too familiar with cult mechanics, but the theory that's given earlier, that it might have been a mafia / cult interaction could work. Undecided so far on this.

Something to note about the night killings, 2 out of 3 of them (3 out of 4 if you count Moogle's suicide) killed someone that was voting (or intending, damn that one minute, eh Moogle xP) for Aldurin. Combine this with what I said about the day, that it seemed that people actively tried to save Aldurin, leads me to believe that we have a mafia with powers, of which Aldurin has an important role.

(This also leads me to believe that the gunshot was the Vigilante)

_____

This is how I interpreted the info we were given over the night. Feel free to call me an idiot and explain why I'm wrong on oh so many counts, but until someone brings something that convinces me otherwise, I'll stick to:

Vote: Aldurin

Geminex · 10-31-2011, 08:34 AM

Quote:

I wasn't concerned with "is he actually mafia", because the whole shitstorm on Day 1 was terrible and made me rethink my participation in the game. Threats of banning Mafia games aren't cool, and I hear it's been banned in the past before.

There's other ways to solve this. You could've talked to him. You could've talked to bookie. But ultimately, I'm not criticizing the snake lynch. I mean, I could've tried harder to stop it, certainly.

Nah, what I FOS'd you for was suggesting that you wouldn't mind policy-lynching sifright as well. That is horribly counterproductive and scummy. So let's not do that.

Quote:

just saying I didn't think that maybe if cult tries to induct mafia the mafia he tried to induct dies.
I'm thinking that is a reasonable possibility for what happens to Moogs.

I'm still kinda doubtful of this, because I don't think the suicide flavor text fits that kind of scenario, but okays. Let's go with this.

Two implications: First, we have a cult. Fuck.
Second, Moogle was mafia. Yay!
Unfortunately, he was pretty damn inactive. He had his little clash with bard, and did his last-minute-earl-vote. We can't really glean much from that.

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I'm not sure which of those two options is the correct one... but I honestly think it might be the latter, just because of all the other earl-related shenanigans that have gone on. And if we assume that moogle's vote wasn't sincere, that pretty much confirms earl as mafiate.

Mind you, that's based on two hypotheticals, but still. What do you guys think about this?

And rav, in regards to the secret vote, given the flavor text, I don't think it'd make sense for it to be anything other than an extra vote someone gets.

rpgdemon · 10-31-2011, 08:43 AM

I agree with Sif that RO's suggestion is crazy scummy.

My other question stems from Smarty's complaints about calling the kills as being done by SK, etc, and then sudden turn to calling them that when he's called out on it. RO is propping up the claim that Smarty started calling the kills by role, when he was originally like, "Prove that it's the vig, who took out the SK!"

While being suspicious of immediate claims is good and all, that wasn't really suspicions, so much as "Hey, look, I'm voicing concern with your plan, give me proof of who the Vig is, oh, wait, you think it's suspicious? Just kidding!"

I also think it's conceivable that Fenris hit a bomb, and died because of that, just to throw it out there.

Not gonna be around today. Got a ton I need to get done.

rpgdemon · 10-31-2011, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geminex

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I think that's actually against the rules, so if that's an active strategy people are employing, you're not supposed to post past the deadline at all, says the rulespost.

As for secret vote, I think the logic above is sound, but there could also be a third party who didn't vote for Snake/Aldurin, who wanted to throw the vote for whatever reason, but not reveal their hand. Dunno what this would accomplish though.

Inbred Chocobo · 10-31-2011, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geminex

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I'm not sure which of those two options is the correct one... but I honestly think it might be the latter, just because of all the other earl-related shenanigans that have gone on. And if we assume that moogle's vote wasn't sincere, that pretty much confirms earl as mafiate.

The thing was that Snake had 6 votes on him, Ald had 4. Moogle was trying to swap his vote so they both had 5, and if they did when the day ended, then no lynch would've happened. So I believe that was Moogle's motivation for voting for that target, nothing else.

As for why we can't see roles, my bet is on a mafia member that has the role where night-kills don't reveal who the person is. Means if we lynch em of vigilante gets lucky they will start popping up, but yeah, makes this a bit difficult.

By the way, a tribly is basically a fedora, which was what Moogle was wearing. That makes him a mafian. Considering he suicided, then most likely cult tried to get him and he killed himself. The cult absorbing the mafia pretty much means insta-win for them.

What I find interesting is that Aldurin had his house broken into. That just strikes me as really odd. My guess? Investigation of some kind, or possibly a roleblocker targetted him. I'm not sure what this means yet, I need more time to brew. To be honest though, I keep having more and more doubts he is scum.

The only thing I can really find that Moogle did that may mean anything was a joke vote on P-sleazy. I've made it a mission before to get into a heated arguement when I was scum with a fellow scum to make no connection appear between us, maybe a possible link there, but unsure of.

So for now,

Vote: P-sleazy.

Sifright · 10-31-2011, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

I also think it's conceivable that Fenris hit a bomb, and died because of that, just to throw it out there.

I doubt this, the post clearly states he was shot in the back after he murdered Kerensky, some one specifically targeted fenris the flavor text would have been different if kerensky was a bomb as it would imply that kerensky was some how responsible for his death.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Bookworm

Same activity-kicking rules apply to Snake as anyone else, unless he comes back in here and still wants to quit, which I am hoping he doesn't after cooling off. Incidentally, while I am not actually going to tell you not to policy lynch, trying to do so on Snake for getting overly pissed off at the whole argument is the sort of thing that strikes me as inspiring even more vitriol (and no, this is not telling you to take your votes off Snake, or put them on him, or whatever).

Vote Count

Solid Snake - 6
Aldurin
rpgdemon
Revolving Ocelot
IC
Smarty
SECRET

Aldurin - 5
Ravashak
Kerensky
Bard
Sifright
Gregness

Karesh - 3
P-Sleazy
Hawk
Snake

Bard - 1
Moogle

P-Sleazy - 1
Shyria

11 to lynch. ~5 hours left. Crunch time, folks.

So moogle moving his vote would have put the voting situation to 6/6 with a tie breaker needed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inbred Chocobo

The thing was that Snake had 6 votes on him, Ald had 4. Moogle was trying to swap his vote so they both had 5, and if they did when the day ended, then no lynch would've happened. So I believe that was Moogle's motivation for voting for that target, nothing else.

Nope this information is completely incorrect, could be a mistake or it could be you trying to rewrite past events.

Minor FOS: inbred chocobo

Your theory on night kill information is really weird as well unless you have outside knowledge there is no reason to suspect killing a certain target will give us that knowledge, which again more suspicion like the only way you could know that or think that would be the case is if your mafia or shooting in the dark utterly and throwing anything out there.

Also When a vote is tied we go into tiebreaker mode and others could have changed their vote to either Aldurin or snake.

Your attempt to use a joke vote to justify a lynch on p-sleazy is just bizarre and makes me question if you are town affiliated further.

Professor Smarmiarty · 10-31-2011, 10:17 AM

One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today.
I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.

Karrrrrrrrrrrresche · 10-31-2011, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smarty McBarrelpants

One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today.
I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.

I'm leaning toward PO. But either is certainly a possibility.

That said, I don't think it's a likely possibility. There's not been much evidence that the Mafia possess extra powers thus far.
FOS: Aldurin.
For the time being that's all I do, I believe it was the PO who broke into his house, and that means Al is confirmed either way to our town. If he survives long enough to maintain a list of his investigations Al will be an easy target.

After the huge stink it caused for me yesterday I'm hesitant to act further this early, but the gears are turning. I feel it fair to say we've made some strides toward victory with this night.

Moogle0119 · 10-31-2011, 10:24 AM

I regret nothing! [/death post]

10-31-2011, 07:33 AM	#332
Ravashak hm? Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: South of the Sewer Posts: 286	First, the lynch. Snake's the Peacemaker, does anyone have some light to shed on what that is? Due to him also being the mayor, I assume it's the same as the mayor in the last game, the ability to decide who gets lynched (or daykill, I guess). Second thing, the money changing hands. I can think of 2 scenarios for this. My first idea: Someone has an invisible vote. This means a vote not made in the thread (I checked all votes that were done by throughout the thread, and the last vote count was accurate). If this replaces their normal vote, the candidates for this ability (for lack of better word) are: 1. Fenris (dead), 5. Viridis, 8. Karesh (though that was due to unvote, here Karesh' vote was counted, possible change from public to private vote, though), 11. Geminex, 13. BahamutFlare, 14. greed The second option is that someone has a (one time?) ability to buy an extra vote. Because we know that it was very close between Snake and Aldurin, with the Secret vote making sure Snake got lynched (it would've been a tie if Moogle was 1 minute faster). This raises supsicion on those voting for Snake, because others could've voted themselves without drawing excessive suspicion: 9. Revolving Ocelot 10. Aldurin 12. Inbred Chocobo 15. Smarty McBarrelpants 18. rpgdemon The next question is, why? The Secret vote got cast after Snake stated his intent to go inactive, which effectively removed him from the game already. The only other thing it could achieve was to prevent the lynch of Aldurin. Why would anyone try to save Aldurin? Because they're convinved he's town �r they know he's fellow scum. ______ On to the night actions. I think we can agree that Fenris had a night kill role, presumably the SK. This will leave two night kills remaining, barring role blocking and protecting. The problem now, I feel, is that we do not know which type of killing to pursue most, since we do not know which was the mafia's, and which the vig's (again, assuming that the child with the propellor beanie with a bloody knife was the SK). Then there's Moogle's suicide. I highly doubt he wanted to leave the game, he was getting more active near the end of the day. I'm not too familiar with cult mechanics, but the theory that's given earlier, that it might have been a mafia / cult interaction could work. Undecided so far on this. Something to note about the night killings, 2 out of 3 of them (3 out of 4 if you count Moogle's suicide) killed someone that was voting (or intending, damn that one minute, eh Moogle xP) for Aldurin. Combine this with what I said about the day, that it seemed that people actively tried to save Aldurin, leads me to believe that we have a mafia with powers, of which Aldurin has an important role. (This also leads me to believe that the gunshot was the Vigilante) _____ This is how I interpreted the info we were given over the night. Feel free to call me an idiot and explain why I'm wrong on oh so many counts, but until someone brings something that convinces me otherwise, I'll stick to: Vote: Aldurin __________________ Varjojen virta Kuolemaa kuljettaa Maa on harmaa Syd�n poissa taas

10-31-2011, 08:43 AM	#334
rpgdemon Not a Taco Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,313	I agree with Sif that RO's suggestion is crazy scummy. My other question stems from Smarty's complaints about calling the kills as being done by SK, etc, and then sudden turn to calling them that when he's called out on it. RO is propping up the claim that Smarty started calling the kills by role, when he was originally like, "Prove that it's the vig, who took out the SK!" While being suspicious of immediate claims is good and all, that wasn't really suspicions, so much as "Hey, look, I'm voicing concern with your plan, give me proof of who the Vig is, oh, wait, you think it's suspicious? Just kidding!" I also think it's conceivable that Fenris hit a bomb, and died because of that, just to throw it out there. Not gonna be around today. Got a ton I need to get done. __________________ I did a lot of posting on here as a teenager, and I was pretty awful. Even after I learned, grew up, and came to be on the right side of a lot of important issues, I was still angry, abrasive, and generally increased the amount of hate in the world, in pretty unacceptable ways. On the off chance that someone is taking a trip down memory lane looking through those old threads, I wanted to devote my signature to say directly to you, I'm sorry. Thank you for letting me be better, NPF.

10-31-2011, 10:24 AM	#340
Moogle0119 The REAL Lord of the Dance Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Narshe Caves Posts: 397	I regret nothing! [/death post] __________________ One day the tides will turn One day the fields will burn One day the seas will churn The fury of our maker's hand What will you do?

10-31-2011, 06:47 AM	#331
Professor Smarmiarty Sent to the cornfield Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: K-space Posts: 9,758	And in repsonse to ROs post: most mafias I've played have had night kills explained as well as lots of hints in the flavour text. Not having the roles of people who died at night revealed is very uncommon- in the onesI've plyed anyway.

10-31-2011, 10:17 AM	#338
Professor Smarmiarty Sent to the cornfield Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: K-space Posts: 9,758	One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today. I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.