Hatland Mafia

[Sifright]

Unvote:Aldurin

Unless, the PO will have him on his list now if he is a mafia member so targeting him would actually be silly thinking about it. Next highest on my potential scum list is revolving ocelot for suggesting another policy lynch.

Vote:Revolving Ocelot

Karesh rates quite highly for speaking up for aldurin during day 1 and Inbred chocobo for flawed recall of past events and bizarre theories on how night information is handled.

FOS: Karesh
FOS: Inbred Chocobo

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Originally Posted by Sifright

Karesh rates quite highly for speaking up for aldurin during day 1 and Inbred chocobo for flawed recall of past events and bizarre theories on how night information is handled.

FOS: Karesh
FOS: Inbred Chocobo

I hate to draw on precedent again but I defend damn near everybody. I try to make sure every option and possibility is presented as openly as possible to keep people thinking. Hell, if it means getting people to think more I'll even attack my own innocence with those thoughts.

But nonetheless, I do not believe Aldurin is scum at this point. Until such time as he presents more suspicious activity or the PO confirms him as such I'll continue to defend him.

[greed]

Originally Posted by Ravashak

First, the lynch. Snake's the Peacemaker, does anyone have some light to shed on what that is? Due to him also being the mayor, I assume it's the same as the mayor in the last game, the ability to decide who gets lynched (or daykill, I guess).
Second thing, the money changing hands. I can think of 2 scenarios for this.
My first idea: Someone has an invisible vote. This means a vote not made in the thread (I checked all votes that were done by throughout the thread, and the last vote count was accurate). If this replaces their normal vote, the candidates for this ability (for lack of better word) are:
1. Fenris (dead),
5. Viridis,
8. Karesh (though that was due to unvote, here Karesh' vote was counted, possible change from public to private vote, though),
11. Geminex,
13. BahamutFlare,
14. greed

The second option is that someone has a (one time?) ability to buy an extra vote. Because we know that it was very close between Snake and Aldurin, with the Secret vote making sure Snake got lynched (it would've been a tie if Moogle was 1 minute faster). This raises supsicion on those voting for Snake, because others could've voted themselves without drawing excessive suspicion:
9. Revolving Ocelot
10. Aldurin
12. Inbred Chocobo
15. Smarty McBarrelpants
18. rpgdemon

The next question is, why? The Secret vote got cast after Snake stated his intent to go inactive, which effectively removed him from the game already. The only other thing it could achieve was to prevent the lynch of Aldurin. Why would anyone try to save Aldurin? Because they're convinved he's town ór they know he's fellow scum.

______

On to the night actions.
I think we can agree that Fenris had a night kill role, presumably the SK. This will leave two night kills remaining, barring role blocking and protecting. The problem now, I feel, is that we do not know which type of killing to pursue most, since we do not know which was the mafia's, and which the vig's (again, assuming that the child with the propellor beanie with a bloody knife was the SK). Then there's Moogle's suicide. I highly doubt he wanted to leave the game, he was getting more active near the end of the day. I'm not too familiar with cult mechanics, but the theory that's given earlier, that it might have been a mafia / cult interaction could work. Undecided so far on this.

Something to note about the night killings, 2 out of 3 of them (3 out of 4 if you count Moogle's suicide) killed someone that was voting (or intending, damn that one minute, eh Moogle xP) for Aldurin. Combine this with what I said about the day, that it seemed that people actively tried to save Aldurin, leads me to believe that we have a mafia with powers, of which Aldurin has an important role.

(This also leads me to believe that the gunshot was the Vigilante)

_____

This is how I interpreted the info we were given over the night. Feel free to call me an idiot and explain why I'm wrong on oh so many counts, but until someone brings something that convinces me otherwise, I'll stick to:

Vote: Aldurin

I agree with most of this and am currently weighing up whether to vote Aldurin for it or to vote RO for his pretty drat scummy suggestion of a second policy lynch. That's almost as bad as trying to keep random voting going on day 2 it is not good for the town.

On Aldurin though there's one thing you maybe missed. He could have had the power himself as you said, but if I had a (once off?) double vote and was that close to being lynched I might try and make certain I was safe. Aldrurin has in the past shown a tendency to use his powers (admittedly here it was smart if overcautious in hindsight). This doesn't rule out him being mafia but just saying there is a townie explanation.

The green colour of the secret vote also suggests that if he did it, he might be self aligned, red is usually mafia, purple usually cult and green and blue are common for self aligned roles and rarely Masons or second mafias (though this game seems a bit small for multiple mafias, and the night actions support a traditional one mafia, one SK, one vig kill role makeup). The power does seem sort of mason like though. But as we haven't lynched any confirmed mafiates or cultists we don't know the colours Bookie's using outside of the traditional townie yellow. And of course the green may just be a reference to the money changing hands in the fluff and not be anyone's actual faction colour, though that seems unlikely.

As things are I am open to voting either RO or Aldurin, but for now I will vote Revolving Ocelot because he seems more definitely scummy whereas I think Aldurin's more likely self aligned with chances of being scum or a mason, in which case he can probably wait til some mafia or cult die. If we lynch someone other than Aldurin and they turn up with green text, we can lynch his ass right fast cause that will mean someone other than him did the green text action, and if that's true he's probably not self aligned, otherwise they wouldn't have saved him.

Well unless they're masons.

But the main point is I think Aldurin is something, but is most likely neutral rather than an immediate threat whereas RO seems more like full blown scum.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Originally Posted by greed

The green colour of the secret vote also suggests that if he did it, he might be self aligned, red is usually mafia, purple usually cult and green and blue are common for self aligned roles and rarely Masons or second mafias (though this game seems a bit small for multiple mafias, and the night actions support a traditional one mafia, one SK, one vig kill role makeup). The power does seem sort of mason like though. But as we haven't lynched any confirmed mafiates or cultists we don't know the colours Bookie's using outside of the traditional townie yellow. And of course the green may just be a reference to the money changing hands in the fluff and not be anyone's actual faction colour, though that seems unlikely.

You know I hadn't considered the color. You're right, the money itself changed hands in green. That makes it less likely to be a town role, but I'm not prepared to quite rule out the possibility of a theoretical mason group that has green.
Even still, lets operate under the far more likely assumption that the Secret vote was some sort of scum, whether it be self aligned or a mafia group an extra vote is pretty weak as far as powers go. So, yeah. The focus should be elsewhere for the time being. If Al proves scum through the investigation then he's an easy enough target. If the game got to the point that a secret vote saved him at that stage, then we'd be pretty screwed anyway.

And of course the possibility of an inactive, whether he be scum or town is using a secret vote to act without getting involved in the politics of voting.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Also hesitant to vote RO at the moment. Gonna wait for his responses to the accusation before rendering judgement on that field.

[Kerensky287]

I regret EVERYTHING! /deathpost

[greed]

Realised I forgot to vote, but decided not to, to give RO time to explain himself. If someone has the ability to fuck with voting, we should be careful about starting lynch trains quickly even if we have a good idea who is doing it.

For now


FoS: Revolving Ocelot

[Aldurin]

I am honestly surprised that I'm still alive at day 2. I was certain I would be lynched or nightkilled immediately.

First of all, I am surprised but grateful to whoever used their secret vote to save me. The flavor text bothers me though since it would indicate that the voter isn't town aligned.

And I need to stop voting stupid. I would assume the peacemaker role would allow Snake to stop a lynch before the end of the day (in case it'd cause someone he thought was a townie to die), I don't really see peacemaker meaning "forced lynch".

I feel that Ravashak's analysis of the secret vote is flawed, since he's assuming only one of the people that voted for me or Snake used it, while ignoring the fact that it could also be any of the other minority votes. Point is that anyone could have the secret vote power and its use in yesterday's lynch was not necessarily helpful in identifying anyone.

I don't mind the investigation, if it will eventually prove that I'm town to you guys (I'm hoping that's an investigation).

For today's vote, for now I have to agree that RO's behavior does read scum.

Vote: Revolving Ocelot

FoS: Sifright

I don't get why you are so adamant about voting for me still even though we're getting some better leads. You could very well be town but overtaken by the desire to lynch me, but you could also be scum, trying to hide among the rest of the original bandwagon against me so you look good for voting out a very suspicious townie. I don't like it.

[Aldurin]

Originally Posted by greed

Realised I forgot to vote, but decided not to, to give RO time to explain himself. If someone has the ability to fuck with voting, we should be careful about starting lynch trains quickly even if we have a good idea who is doing it.

For now


FoS: Revolving Ocelot

Just noticed that.

Unvote: Revolving Ocelot

FoS: Revolving Ocelot

It probably is a good idea to avoid building up a large votecount until we're sure of who we want to lynch.

[rpgdemon]

As a thought, it's entirely possible that the secret voter (If scum) just figured that Aldurin was less likely to mess up their plan than Snake. Like, If Snake was around but Aldurin got lynched, there's one less easy target available that the town would go for, instead of the voter.

This falls apart though, when you consider that Snake had said that he was quitting.