Hatland Mafia

[Inbred Chocobo]

Originally Posted by Geminex

Though wait a second. If moogle was mafiate... Then the question is, what about earl? Moogle tried to vote for earl in the last minute. If we assume that his vote was legit, then that'd imply that earl is town. But was the vote legit? It came just after the deadline, within less than a minute of it. But if moogle and earl are both mafiates, voting just after the deadline would be a pretty great way of making moogle seem trustworthy to the town.,

I'm not sure which of those two options is the correct one... but I honestly think it might be the latter, just because of all the other earl-related shenanigans that have gone on. And if we assume that moogle's vote wasn't sincere, that pretty much confirms earl as mafiate.

The thing was that Snake had 6 votes on him, Ald had 4. Moogle was trying to swap his vote so they both had 5, and if they did when the day ended, then no lynch would've happened. So I believe that was Moogle's motivation for voting for that target, nothing else.

As for why we can't see roles, my bet is on a mafia member that has the role where night-kills don't reveal who the person is. Means if we lynch em of vigilante gets lucky they will start popping up, but yeah, makes this a bit difficult.

By the way, a tribly is basically a fedora, which was what Moogle was wearing. That makes him a mafian. Considering he suicided, then most likely cult tried to get him and he killed himself. The cult absorbing the mafia pretty much means insta-win for them.

What I find interesting is that Aldurin had his house broken into. That just strikes me as really odd. My guess? Investigation of some kind, or possibly a roleblocker targetted him. I'm not sure what this means yet, I need more time to brew. To be honest though, I keep having more and more doubts he is scum.

The only thing I can really find that Moogle did that may mean anything was a joke vote on P-sleazy. I've made it a mission before to get into a heated arguement when I was scum with a fellow scum to make no connection appear between us, maybe a possible link there, but unsure of.

So for now,

Vote: P-sleazy.

[P-Sleazy]

Originally Posted by Inbred Chocobo

The only thing I can really find that Moogle did that may mean anything was a joke vote on P-sleazy. I've made it a mission before to get into a heated arguement when I was scum with a fellow scum to make no connection appear between us, maybe a possible link there, but unsure of.

So for now,

Vote: P-sleazy.

Hey! Me and you did that way back when.

Also, I resent that. I was too focused on Karesh's joke claim to be bothered with Moogle. If what you're saying is true of getting into heated arguements with people, and I did indeed do that, then it would have been me and Karesh, not me and Moogle this game.

VOTE: Inbred Chocobo

For not paying attention to what I did all day 1.

[BahamutFlare]

Honestly, I gave ample time for P-Sleazy to actually contribute something.

Vote: P-Sleazy

If a more suspicious person comes along, then I'll probably switch, but you just haven't made any contribution...even now.

Also, wasn't Snake throwing around a lot of suspicion? It was to create talk so we could figure out some more hints. Saying Sif is scum because he's doing what a lot of us are doing and a confirmed townie did most of all is just silly. I don't see any validity in your argument, Smarty.

[greed]

Originally Posted by Ravashak

First, the lynch. Snake's the Peacemaker, does anyone have some light to shed on what that is? Due to him also being the mayor, I assume it's the same as the mayor in the last game, the ability to decide who gets lynched (or daykill, I guess).
Second thing, the money changing hands. I can think of 2 scenarios for this.
My first idea: Someone has an invisible vote. This means a vote not made in the thread (I checked all votes that were done by throughout the thread, and the last vote count was accurate). If this replaces their normal vote, the candidates for this ability (for lack of better word) are:
1. Fenris (dead),
5. Viridis,
8. Karesh (though that was due to unvote, here Karesh' vote was counted, possible change from public to private vote, though),
11. Geminex,
13. BahamutFlare,
14. greed

The second option is that someone has a (one time?) ability to buy an extra vote. Because we know that it was very close between Snake and Aldurin, with the Secret vote making sure Snake got lynched (it would've been a tie if Moogle was 1 minute faster). This raises supsicion on those voting for Snake, because others could've voted themselves without drawing excessive suspicion:
9. Revolving Ocelot
10. Aldurin
12. Inbred Chocobo
15. Smarty McBarrelpants
18. rpgdemon

The next question is, why? The Secret vote got cast after Snake stated his intent to go inactive, which effectively removed him from the game already. The only other thing it could achieve was to prevent the lynch of Aldurin. Why would anyone try to save Aldurin? Because they're convinved he's town ór they know he's fellow scum.

______

On to the night actions.
I think we can agree that Fenris had a night kill role, presumably the SK. This will leave two night kills remaining, barring role blocking and protecting. The problem now, I feel, is that we do not know which type of killing to pursue most, since we do not know which was the mafia's, and which the vig's (again, assuming that the child with the propellor beanie with a bloody knife was the SK). Then there's Moogle's suicide. I highly doubt he wanted to leave the game, he was getting more active near the end of the day. I'm not too familiar with cult mechanics, but the theory that's given earlier, that it might have been a mafia / cult interaction could work. Undecided so far on this.

Something to note about the night killings, 2 out of 3 of them (3 out of 4 if you count Moogle's suicide) killed someone that was voting (or intending, damn that one minute, eh Moogle xP) for Aldurin. Combine this with what I said about the day, that it seemed that people actively tried to save Aldurin, leads me to believe that we have a mafia with powers, of which Aldurin has an important role.

(This also leads me to believe that the gunshot was the Vigilante)

_____

This is how I interpreted the info we were given over the night. Feel free to call me an idiot and explain why I'm wrong on oh so many counts, but until someone brings something that convinces me otherwise, I'll stick to:

Vote: Aldurin

I agree with most of this and am currently weighing up whether to vote Aldurin for it or to vote RO for his pretty drat scummy suggestion of a second policy lynch. That's almost as bad as trying to keep random voting going on day 2 it is not good for the town.

On Aldurin though there's one thing you maybe missed. He could have had the power himself as you said, but if I had a (once off?) double vote and was that close to being lynched I might try and make certain I was safe. Aldrurin has in the past shown a tendency to use his powers (admittedly here it was smart if overcautious in hindsight). This doesn't rule out him being mafia but just saying there is a townie explanation.

The green colour of the secret vote also suggests that if he did it, he might be self aligned, red is usually mafia, purple usually cult and green and blue are common for self aligned roles and rarely Masons or second mafias (though this game seems a bit small for multiple mafias, and the night actions support a traditional one mafia, one SK, one vig kill role makeup). The power does seem sort of mason like though. But as we haven't lynched any confirmed mafiates or cultists we don't know the colours Bookie's using outside of the traditional townie yellow. And of course the green may just be a reference to the money changing hands in the fluff and not be anyone's actual faction colour, though that seems unlikely.

As things are I am open to voting either RO or Aldurin, but for now I will vote Revolving Ocelot because he seems more definitely scummy whereas I think Aldurin's more likely self aligned with chances of being scum or a mason, in which case he can probably wait til some mafia or cult die. If we lynch someone other than Aldurin and they turn up with green text, we can lynch his ass right fast cause that will mean someone other than him did the green text action, and if that's true he's probably not self aligned, otherwise they wouldn't have saved him.

Well unless they're masons.

But the main point is I think Aldurin is something, but is most likely neutral rather than an immediate threat whereas RO seems more like full blown scum.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Originally Posted by greed

The green colour of the secret vote also suggests that if he did it, he might be self aligned, red is usually mafia, purple usually cult and green and blue are common for self aligned roles and rarely Masons or second mafias (though this game seems a bit small for multiple mafias, and the night actions support a traditional one mafia, one SK, one vig kill role makeup). The power does seem sort of mason like though. But as we haven't lynched any confirmed mafiates or cultists we don't know the colours Bookie's using outside of the traditional townie yellow. And of course the green may just be a reference to the money changing hands in the fluff and not be anyone's actual faction colour, though that seems unlikely.

You know I hadn't considered the color. You're right, the money itself changed hands in green. That makes it less likely to be a town role, but I'm not prepared to quite rule out the possibility of a theoretical mason group that has green.
Even still, lets operate under the far more likely assumption that the Secret vote was some sort of scum, whether it be self aligned or a mafia group an extra vote is pretty weak as far as powers go. So, yeah. The focus should be elsewhere for the time being. If Al proves scum through the investigation then he's an easy enough target. If the game got to the point that a secret vote saved him at that stage, then we'd be pretty screwed anyway.

And of course the possibility of an inactive, whether he be scum or town is using a secret vote to act without getting involved in the politics of voting.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Also hesitant to vote RO at the moment. Gonna wait for his responses to the accusation before rendering judgement on that field.

[greed]

Realised I forgot to vote, but decided not to, to give RO time to explain himself. If someone has the ability to fuck with voting, we should be careful about starting lynch trains quickly even if we have a good idea who is doing it.

For now


FoS: Revolving Ocelot

[Professor Smarmiarty]

One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today.
I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Originally Posted by Smarty McBarrelpants

One thing about the Aldurin was that I was waiting to see what would happen overnight. He clearly has some sort of power role and I was thinking there is a reasonable chance that the mafia would off him overnight if he was not one of theirs because hitting powerroles is always good for them. Though it is certianly possible that they just assumed we'd lynch him today.
I guess it depends on whetherhis house being broken into was a PO or some sort of mafia siderole.

I'm leaning toward PO. But either is certainly a possibility.

That said, I don't think it's a likely possibility. There's not been much evidence that the Mafia possess extra powers thus far.
FOS: Aldurin.
For the time being that's all I do, I believe it was the PO who broke into his house, and that means Al is confirmed either way to our town. If he survives long enough to maintain a list of his investigations Al will be an easy target.

After the huge stink it caused for me yesterday I'm hesitant to act further this early, but the gears are turning. I feel it fair to say we've made some strides toward victory with this night.

[Moogle0119]

I regret nothing! [/death post]