My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[Verifiedz]

HoS:RPGdemon

[Ryanderman]

This is just a quick thought - I need to flesh it out when I have more time - but taking that list:


HoS: Nikose
HoS: gregness
HoS: Ryanderman
HoS: Bard
HoS: Verifiedz
HoS: greed
HoS: rpgdemon

even with me included, cause I can admit ya'll find me suspicious.

We have at the moment, 7 suspicious and 8 not suspicious. The town has 2 kills per day/night cycle, and the scum have 2 kills per day/night cycle. There are likely 5 or 6 scum total.

If we are confident all the scum are on that list, then if we kill 2 per day/night, and if they kill 2 not on that list per day/night, we'll out race them and win, even if we have to kill everyone on the list.

Of course, there are complicating factors, such as the vig being killed. But then, we could get the SK too, and we'd be back to even. And what if not all the scum are on that list?

Anyway, don't know as that's anything useful, but it encourages me that we aren't out of this yet.

[Gregness]

We also don't know that that's all the scum.

[Ryanderman]

We also don't know that that's all the scum.
Yeah, I know it's not. Even setting aside the argument that I'm on it and therefore it's not all scum - as that's fairly useless - I think there are at most, 6 scum. 7 on the list. My initial thought was that it might not matter if we kill whatever townies are on the list, if all the scum are there too. But the more I mull it over, the more holes I find. So, nevermind or something.

[Verifiedz]

Note to self: don't play mafia again. I just realized I spent one hour reading everything I missed....

[rpgdemon]

Yeah, Ryander, the math on that doesn't work at all. If we're unlucky, we'd hit like 4 townies, and then be screwed.

[Nikose Tyris]

Home from election! Liberals dominated our polls. Just read through all this.

Can I get an explaination that details all my lies? I'd appreciate that, because I'm pretty sure that you're full of shit, Sifright.

[Fenris]

Vote count!

Nikose 1
Sifright

Sifright 2
rpgdemon
Hawk

rpgdemon 2
Ryanderman
Bard

greed 2
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot

If you voted and it wasn't counted, it's because you suck at formatting.

Deadline sometime, however many I said last time to lynch!

[Nikose Tyris]

I'm going to

VOTE: Greed

because I'm really, really tired, and because I'm feeling really confident that Sifright isn't actually mafia. That could be because I've been awake for a very long time and haven't eaten since 5 AM.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Vote: Fenris

He's attempting to subvert democracy by making the ballot confusing.

[Fenris]

Vote count!

Nikose 1
Sifright

Sifright 2
rpgdemon
Hawk

rpgdemon 2
Ryanderman
Bard

greed 3
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot
Nikose

Karesh 18,000,000,080,000,062
Karesh x 18,000,000,080,000,062

IT IS NOW NIGH

just kiddin

[Sifright]

Suspicious actions: Pointing out a bad plan.

Completely not suspicious actions: posting walls of text that force those who disagree into submission because it's easier to agree then put up with 3 posts in a row that are more essays, from a University student who's studying the art of Writing Much and Saying Nothing.

This is the man that we all are siding with here. I'm going to point that out, and remind you all again, this is the man that made arguments more illogical than mine, and continuously bashed my own- Arguments that Sifright agrees with, actually.

Despite how 'scummy' it apparently is to enjoy a game and continue acting as I normally do [That is, silly and casually accusatory], I'm actually writing a post with some seriousness to say, He's clearly the SK and stands out like a sore thumb, and if he survives tonight, we have a worse than 1 in 4 chance to lose one of our 3 power roles [Vig, PO, BG].


TL;DR Doing the maths after this point here:


Wait I'm actually going to do the math for that.


Currently 18 Players; assume 5 mafiates, 1 SK, 11 Town, 1 confirmed immune town.

Mafia kills 1 of 12 people. 3 of those are likely power roles.
Ergo, Mafia swing has a 1 in 4 chance of hitting a power role.

SK targets among the 16 players, and has a 1 in roughly 6 chance of hitting a friendly role, or a 1 in ~3 chance of hitting a mafiate right now.

[B]Now Back to the good Part [Logic]:

So, NO, Town power roles, do not just hit Karesh tonight. Sifright was a better vote target as a way of confirming and not wasting night kills, BUT EVEN SO we could completely ignore Sifright and Karesh, have night roles act freely as they are meant to, so the Bodyguard could defend anyone they wished, Vig could swing and have a chance to hit a legitimate target, and PO could investigate, I dunno, ANYONE [Like Me, or Ryanderman, or Snake, or Sifright.]

The thing that leads me MOST against Snake was his continual Overthinking of Karesh's role when there's no reason to continue down that path. RO did that earlier today* [Game day] and Snake has been doing it continuously. There's no logic to "Aha you have fallen into my trap of voting for someone voting randomly and joining a bandwagon" "But what if Fenris knew we'd know that we knew that he chose to..." Snake is smarter than that. He's making purposeful bad faith arguements against Karesh, the only role that HE CANNOT KILL, and when he could not lead a lynch, opted to lead ALL THE TOWN'S NIGHT ACTIONS against Karesh.

If there is a scummier action then encouraging the entire town to blast Karesh, and waste every night action we have?

Snake is making arguments that would make Descartes proud.

Saying snake wanted all night actions targeted on Karesh, in an attempt to get people to lynch him. You lied right THERE.

[Sifright]

Holy shit guys I've just realised something

Unvote:nikose

Zacora in the show was feared by EVERYpony. They all thought she was some kind of "evil enchantress" It's possible she has the miller effect listed by http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Miller Infact given she is the perenial outsider of MLP FIM it makes perfect sense.

Hoooo shit.

[Sifright]

This just made things ridiculously confusing for me now.

[Revising Ocelot]

Limited knowledge here, but do Millers have to act like they're silly and suspicious or is that just pseudo-RPing? All I know is that they just scan as Mafia by the PO, when they're actually Town.

[Sifright]

Okay I'm going to get Nikose voting history and mentions of power roles up to see how it jibes with his roleclaim also apart from his lying about snake the other thing that makes me leery is the idea of town power roles outside of the elements of Harmony. Whi'lst I am at it i'm going to post up shit that favors my case against RPGDEMON.

Alduin was culted night 0.

RPG is serial Killer.

Snake is probably going to die by mafia kill night one.

Bob the merc is Cult leader.

Okay So far looking pretty odd.What role would you see him in, beyond SK? He always talks about finding Mafia, doubted the existence of an SK despite there clearly being one [Cluckles], and maybe most damning of all, did try to see a town outcry against Karesh, the only confirmed unkillable were he an SK.

It seems logical to me that he's the SK. He fits the role perfectly.

Overly concerned about finding the SK early on. SK and Town are nominally aligned to begin with because if the mafia get to 50%+ the SK loses. Mafia are more worried about killing off the SK than town are.




END OF NIKOSE======================

Start OF RPG========================

Furthermore, reading your plan again Sif, it's completely full of holes, and benefits scum more than I originally thought.

You're saying, "Hey, Investigator. Either I get away with being scum, or you die tomorrow. Silence means I live, coming forward and saying something means I die."

If you really thought of yourself as expendable, you'd say that silence means you die, coming forward means you live. That way you're not holding the investigator hostage for your life.

So let's look at what my plan was. Day 1 I role claim and confirm a Fluttershy claim from Karesh. MY plan was the PO investigates me and SAYS NOTHING to confirm i'm town makes things ambiguous but on the other hoof, the PO doesn't have to reveal I'm mafia straight away even if I am but putting my self out there has made me a huge target. So Day 1 if i'm mafia he knows one confirmed mafia straight away later on in the game he can then reveal everything he knows getting me mega lynched quick as you please. There is no reason why my plan if i was mafia and thus lying would 'force' the Pos hoof and Mischaracterising it as that to cast more suspicion on me made me wary as fuck.


More RPGDEMON QUOTE

Like, what you've done right now has tied your life to the investigator's. Whatever happens to you, happens to him, and that benefits scum, and isn't how an "expendable townie" would think. If you wanted to be expendable, you'd set it up so that the investigator survives when you die.

Not true at all what my preposed plan would do is give the investigator the ability to prove both my self and Karesh or If mafia the knowledge of one mafiate straight away with the choice to reveal now or later on the only holes in my plan at the time were the lack of knowledge about 'watcher' roles which snake pointed out to me. The idea that the PO or Doctor is lynched Day one is pretty unlikely.


More RPGdemon

I do want to know why you'd have said THAT though. More than anything, it makes no sense to me.

ESPECIALLY considering earlier you were all, "No one tell anyone to target anything! It's bad and scummy, since they can just watch someone and see who the power player is!" But now you're all for it?



And now you set the town up in an incredibly awkward position. You have been acting suspicious today, with the suggestion to Vig-kill Karesh. And now, anyone who calls you out on that, is likely to be scum, by what you said here.

If you are town: You're playing it to give the scum the advantage here, since you don't realize that you made a blundering statement that does incriminate you. If you're scum, then you've now set yourself up to make sure that no townie targets you, since "Well, he's a townie, and once he dies, they'll think I'm suspicious! Snake said so!"

vote: Snake

I'm willing to move my vote if you can allay these suspicions, but for now, that's how it's staying.

Misconstrueing Snakes actions and again trying to cover for Nikose.

Snake points how high activity posting and being killed allows us to work around those who were cautious and reckless with him RPGdemons response is to go "Fuck you snake it's lynch time"

even more RPGDEMON

Actually, thinking on it, the whole Fawful thing is probably more suspicious than the whole Snake thing. Mainly because he was active at night, and hasn't posted here, but wasn't replaced for inactivity.

Unvote:Snake
Vote: Fawful

I still think Snake is suspicious, but Fawful is more immediately suspicious.


"I DONT WANT TO KILL INACTIVES HE TELLING PEOPLE A LIE ABOUT ME WANTING TO KILL INACTIVES" You know except when you vote for them and try and get them killed sure.

Followed with a fenris post stating

I need to clear up some misconceptions.

The people I replaced quit.

I have yet to prune inactives.

I also do not count merely submitting night roles as an active participant in my threads. Any of you who have ever played a game of mine ever should know this.

After that Aldurin went all derpy hooves and killed applejack

[Sifright]

Nikose Voting pattern:


Oron is not being anywhere NEAR QUIET ENOUGH NOW. D:<

Friendshipping the hell out of: Oron~!

Status: Oron, Unknown



BARD IS SPEAKING AGAIN

UNFRIENDING: ORON

FRIENDSHIPPING THE HELL OUT OF: BARD

Status: Bard Unknown


UNFRIENDSHIPPING: BARD

VOTE: SMARTY

BITCHES I DON'T NEED REASONS IT'S DAY 1.

Smarty Dead partially confimed as Cult leader, mafia have no way to know that he is ahead of time.

See I had said that I was going to take those three talking and not being punished as evidence of some sort of masonry or mafia group, and since sifright roleclaimed without evidence and is apparently still in the game, I'm actually kind of partial to testing my theory here.

I support the day 1 lynch of Sifright to check if he's lying, or of Geminex to see if they are a scum group.

UNVOTE: SMARTY

I am in support of Geminex being our SACRIFICE, SACRIFICE- if Geminex comes up clean then Sifright would be a confirmed one shot PO, and bodyguard should cover him tonight while he gets his 1 investigation off.

You know unless I've completely misread somewhere on something.

So with that in mind I'll VOTE: GEMINEX

Status : Dead, He was applejack a town body guard role.

If you are honestly trying to suggest that I am smart enough to be a puppetmaster

UNVOTE: GEMINEX

VOTE: BOOKWORM

Because like, I have a reputation as being the town idiot here.

Status: Bookworm Dead, Town cutiemark crusader GO mooned.

I think something we can all get behind is

UNVOTE: Whoever I was voting for

VOTE: IHMN

Status: IHM Unknown (roleclaiming Ditsy doo)

UNVOTE: IHMN

VOTE: SIFRIGHT

Status: Sifright (role claiming Doctor Whooves and role confirming Karesh as fluttershy)



And I doubt his claim.

Also, Snake- The fact that you've switched tactics to personal insults means I literally have no choice but to:

VOTE: SNAKE

Cause your attitude is pissing me off.

Status: Snake Zacora Dead, double killed by both SK and mafia town aligned.

Clearly an editted post!

VOTE:VERIFIEDZ!

Status: Verfiedz Unknown


Eh, it's more an unwritten rule on the whole editting post- and his brother handled most of it. I'm actually okay with giving him epic slack. [He's like not even a teen yet.]

UNVOTE: VERI Cause I'd actually feel bad for trying to get him lynched. He's still just a little, fat baby.


VOTE: SOLID SNAKE

We've seen through you, Seen your true colors.

[Sifright]

So thats 4 non mafia the very least confirmed that Nikose has voted for. obviously when thinking about it my self i'm bumping that number to 5.

Things that worry, high number of players that are making one or two posts a game day and then nothing more. In that list is Oron, Bard, Ryanderman, Greed and Gregness.

So thats five there. I'm working on the assumption that we have five mafia and one SK. Cult were slaughtered night one which is basically a miracle. Chances are one of those five has to be town but they are all equally inactive. RPGDEMON is scummy for the reasons i've listed previously at this point i'm not certain what to do. I also Feel there is a good chance nikose is the SK, with that in mind I'm not going to vote to lynch him.

Unvote: Whoever

Vote:RPGDEMON


HOS: NIKOSE
HOS: Bard
HOS: Gregness
HOS: Ryanderman
HOS: Greed
HOS: Oron

[Sifright]

I also feel the need to point out the difference between voting 100% inactives off who aren't doing anything on the ENTIRE forum and inactives who are active else where on the forum it's quite a large difference.

[rpgdemon]

"I DONT WANT TO KILL INACTIVES HE TELLING PEOPLE A LIE ABOUT ME WANTING TO KILL INACTIVES" You know except when you vote for them and try and get them killed sure.

Again, you're aiming to lie and mislead. What was the point of posting Fenris's post? Are you implying that I'm clairvoyant, and should have known that Fenris would have told us, after I posted, that he hadn't replaced inactives yet? What is your angle? If you're town, and you think I'm scum, you're playing absolutely terribly. You don't try to twist facts to make them fit what you want, you base what you want off of facts. I legitimately can't believe you when you say that you're not scum, and every time you try to leverage "Backup", you just make it more obvious.

Who are you even backing up to? People all start bandwagonning on me, and you go, "Okay, well, there's as much can be said about me or him being scummy as can be said! We need to follow other leads!", without addressing the huge list of points that I made against you at all. Then when people start voting off of me, you decide that logic isn't a good way to play this game, and to start putting your spin on what happened.

I was going based off the idea that Fawful had acted at night, and still hadn't said a single thing in the thread, making him highly suspicious. And it seemed as if Fenris had replaced people for inactivity, so the fact that Fawful was still around was suspicious. Fenris posted later saying that Fawful wasn't necessarily active, and then Aldurin happened.

[rpgdemon]

I also feel the need to point out the difference between voting 100% inactives off who aren't doing anything on the ENTIRE forum and inactives who are active else where on the forum it's quite a large difference.

Yes, it is. One of them was a plan that I didn't support except as a last resort, because it was tantamount to not voting at all. The other was a plan that someone else (Snake?) brought up, and it seemed logical, and I did support it, since we had no other leads, and this wasn't a lead of, "HE'S INACTIVE", so much as, "HE'S DOING SOMETHING AT NIGHT AND LURKING AT DAY."

[rpgdemon]

I'm going to class.

[Sifright]

Again, you're aiming to lie and mislead. What was the point of posting Fenris's post? Are you implying that I'm clairvoyant, and should have known that Fenris would have told us, after I posted, that he hadn't replaced inactives yet? What is your angle? If you're town, and you think I'm scum, you're playing absolutely terribly. You don't try to twist facts to make them fit what you want, you base what you want off of facts. I legitimately can't believe you when you say that you're not scum, and every time you try to leverage "Backup", you just make it more obvious.

Who are you even backing up to? People all start bandwagonning on me, and you go, "Okay, well, there's as much can be said about me or him being scummy as can be said! We need to follow other leads!", without addressing the huge list of points that I made against you at all. Then when people start voting off of me, you decide that logic isn't a good way to play this game, and to start putting your spin on what happened.

I was going based off the idea that Fawful had acted at night, and still hadn't said a single thing in the thread, making him highly suspicious. And it seemed as if Fenris had replaced people for inactivity, so the fact that Fawful was still around was suspicious. Fenris posted later saying that Fawful wasn't necessarily active, and then Aldurin happened.



What huge list of points so far your only going to lynch me because "LOL HE SAID KARESH IS FLUTTER SHY DAY 1 AND HES MAFIA BECAUSE HE KEEPS TRYING TO COME UP WITH PLANS THAT COULD ONLY WORK WELL FOR HIM IF HE IS TOWN HUURP." I mean yea my plan day one had the chance to back fire day one if the doctor or PO was lynched but we would be told that and people could then react to said information.

Also I note your saying i'm lying in your post but I didn't lie I directly quoted your actions. I posted the fenris thing to show that lynching people who are completely inactive IE Julford now would be a stupid thing to do and because that proved that going for inactives was a terrible idea.

[Verifiedz]

Vote count!

Nikose 1
Sifright

Sifright 2
rpgdemon
Hawk

rpgdemon 2
Ryanderman
Bard

greed 2
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot

If you voted and it wasn't counted, it's because you suck at formatting.

Deadline sometime, however many I said last time to lynch!
VOTE:NIKOSE I said that earlier didn't you get it?

[Sifright]

Verifiedz you need to move the vote:nikose to a seperate line

[Verifiedz]

Oh.
UNVOTE:NIKOSE

VOTE:Rpgdemon

[Sifright]

Also RPGdemon is only trying counter a single point in my entire post and then goes look at sifright go kill him for that one point.

[rpgdemon]

Also RPGdemon is only trying counter a single point in my entire post and then goes look at sifright go kill him for that one point.

Yes, because the simple point, and many other of your simple points, have been outright lies trying to get people to vote against me. There's no way that's helpful behavior.

[Sifright]

please go ahead and quote said lies.

[rpgdemon]

Also I note your saying i'm lying in your post but I didn't lie I directly quoted your actions. I posted the fenris thing to show that lynching people who are completely inactive IE Julford now would be a stupid thing to do and because that proved that going for inactives was a terrible idea.

That was an implied lie though, right there. Posting Fenris's thing made no sense, as it wasn't information available when the plan was discussed, and not even initiated by me! And heck, you're even lying by saying it's a player who's completely inactive. There was evidence that Julford was acting at night, and not during the day, and wasn't replaced by Fenris. It was a strong case to be suspicious. Posting the Fenris thing ignores the circumstance and is meant to mislead, as it's completely a red herring. There is NO reason to post it, as it's got no relevance to what was discussed before he mentioned it.

I'm going to ignore this post for now and will write up a concise rebuttal later but I'd like to show every one a plan I have for really hammering the Mafia, if the PO has certain information.

You lied here: You just ignored that post, as you ignore all criticism of yourself, and somehow everyone buys it. You never rebutted Hawk's points. You just went, "LOLOLOL SUICIDE HAH YOU WON'T VOTE FOR ME NOW."

Justification of killing inactives.

Edit: Note Smb was in favour of this tactic and he was scum

A direct and blatant lie about me. I was arguing against SMB, and it's incredibly obvious because he was the next person to respond saying how I was wrong. I already made this point though, which was again ignored by you, because hey, why do we need logic? That keeps us from lynching townies.

Just start reading here to see what I said about it.

http://www.nuklearforums.com/showthread.php?t=40768&page=92

Right there, when there's clear suspicion on you, you just ignore it.

Now, I'm going to leave. I'm not going to check this thread again, until I have my paper written. It may not be until night fall. I may break this promise, but I need to get this paper written, and you're wasting my time.

[Sifright]

Right Hawk's points are I'm suspicious of people voting to kill inactives, and bullshit about me calling on the PO to confirm me which i've never once asked for. Also hawks another low activity poster.

HOS:Hawk

[Sifright]

but more importantly When should power roles like the PO reveal them selves because this is a question that does need answering.

The PO has a high chance of being dead the next day, If he doesn't give his information either this game day or the next we WILL lose his information.


So okay guys TELL ME when should the PO give his information out especially given how close this game day is to being the penultimate one. This is whats fucking pissing me off more than anything if you guys aren't mafia what the hell thought process is it that makes you think that way.

[Sifright]

Vote count!

Nikose 1
Sifright

Sifright 2
rpgdemon
Hawk

rpgdemon 2
Ryanderman
Bard

greed 3
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot
Nikose

Karesh 18,000,000,080,000,062
Karesh x 18,000,000,080,000,062

IT IS NOW NIGH

just kiddin

People fix your vote formating whether you want to kill me or not.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

hmmmmmmm.

Vote: Greed

Still suspicious of RPG, but I'm coming to believe that's just because he's grasping after a straw. He wants Sif to be scum and that's clouding his judgement of what is or is not a safe bet.
Revolving Ocelot remains one of my "Townie as fuck" people so far so I think I'll defer to him until such time as I have a better idea.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Right Hawk's points are I'm suspicious of people voting to kill inactives, and bullshit about me calling on the PO to confirm me which i've never once asked for. Also hawks another low activity poster.

HOS:Hawk

No, I said I didn't understand what your were getting at by pointing the finger at people who voted for Fawful, including known townies. If townies themselves were voting for fawful, and arrived at that decision on their own, how does that make everyone else who voted for him inherently scummy by default?

As for my low post count, it's really irrelevant. My average daily post count on this site isn't massively high anyway, and never has been, because even though I'm around and reading the forum, I only post when I actually have something to say, which in most other threads is either a short jokey post or a post in direct response to a thread topic, and I often then don't go back and read much more of the thread after that point.

You'll also note that I rarely if ever post in more serious topics, because I'm not the best person at making long well thought out arguments, which is one of the reasons why I never signed up for mafia before now, because I knew I'd be pretty terrible at it anyway.

And on that point, I'm starting to regret I ever did, because after however many hundreds of posts in this game and however many arguments and counter arguments I still have no idea who might be scum. I also can't keep up with your own 14 posts an hour rate which is why I haven't been posting during this latest debate because by the time I get half way through it I lose track of what's even being said. I also only ever tend to post if I actually have something to say, which I didn't until now.

Now I imagine you'll probably make about 6 posts refuting and angrily dismissing everything I've just said now, before voting for me, and that's fine, because to be honest I'm starting to lose interest in the game at this point. It started out fun and there was a genuinse sense that maybe it's actually possible to work out who might be scum, but it seems to me I might as well just pick somebody at random here for all the sense I have of the general arguments. At the end of the day none of us actually know anything for sure. And besides, as you've pointed out, after the disasterous 2nd night we're probably going to lose anyway.

For now though;

Unvote: Sifright

Vote: Greed

He's my second choice of lynch today and it seems the vote is going that way, so we may as well get concensus on this.

[Sifright]

No, I said I didn't understand what your were getting at by pointing the finger at people who voted for Fawful, including known townies. If townies themselves were voting for fawful, and arrived at that decision on their own, how does that make everyone else who voted for him inherently scummy by default?

As for my low post count, it's really irrelevant. My average daily post count on this site isn't massively high anyway, and never has been, because even though I'm around and reading the forum, I only post when I actually have something to say, which in most other threads is either a short jokey post or a post in direct response to a thread topic, and I often then don't go back and read much more of the thread after that point.

You'll also note that I rarely if ever post in more serious topics, because I'm not the best person at making long well thought out arguments, which is one of the reasons why I never signed up for mafia before now, because I knew I'd be pretty terrible at it anyway.

And on that point, I'm starting to regret I ever did, because after however many hundreds of posts in this game and however many arguments and counter arguments I still have no idea who might be scum. I also can't keep up with your own 14 posts an hour rate which is why I haven't been posting during this latest debate because by the time I get half way through it I lose track of what's even being said. I also only ever tend to post if I actually have something to say, which I didn't until now.

Now I imagine you'll probably make about 6 posts refuting and angrily dismissing everything I've just said now, before voting for me, and that's fine, because to be honest I'm starting to lose interest in the game at this point. It started out fun and there was a genuinse sense that maybe it's actually possible to work out who might be scum, but it seems to me I might as well just pick somebody at random here for all the sense I have of the general arguments. At the end of the day none of us actually know anything for sure. And besides, as you've pointed out, after the disasterous 2nd night we're probably going to lose anyway.

For now though;

Unvote: Sifright

Vote: Greed

He's my second choice of lynch today and it seems the vote is going that way, so we may as well get concensus on this.

Actually that allays alot of suspicion I have about you. I mean you could still be mafia but You weren't high on my potential mafia hit list.

[Sifright]

Al, I told you not to do that again. Why would you do that again? So far town hasn't had the chance to make a decent lynch of its own and you keep wanting to override us. What ARE you playing at??!

Still, at least we know you're powerless now, though your irrational nature and apparant poor judgement lead me to believe I should no more trust anything you say than anyone else in this game, despite your confirmed town status.

On that note however, yes, I agree greed is shifty looking. Far too much inactivity for my liking, alongside Ryanderman. Greed also turned up just a few hours after somebody else started getting suspicious of him, and judging by the way inactives have been falling out of this game he might be getting worried he's next.

I'm also still suspicious of Sifright. Twice now he's called out the PO to confirm his town status and I've had an off feeling about him since that whole confirmation thing with Karesh. He could easily have been scum trying to lure out a clear townie in Fluttershy, with the hope that Fluttershy would be a power role to kill off. This of course was immediately negated by the fact that Karesh claims Fluttershy is bulletproof, which would make the mafia think twice about attempting a kill.

And from what I'm gathering from last night, it appears both the mafia and SK tried to kill Zecora, with one overiding the other, which would seem to indicate that Fenris IS giving us fluff info about failed kills. So the mafia wouldn't bother to test Kareshs claim if they suspected he's bulletproof, because it would only confirm that he's town for the rest of us in the fluff. Besides which there's plenty of other targets to go after and they could pretty much ignore the unkillables if they wanted.

Then there's Sifs finger pointing about Fawful, which, as indicated, involves a lot of players, including some confirmed town (even "his" confirmed town Karesh was mentioned as being wary of Fawful). But as we know, Fawful was taken down by the vig, so I don't know why this finger pointing is even going on, unless he's pointing fingers at people he thinks is the vig, which is pure scum. You do NOT point fingers at the vig, ever.

All this leads me to beleive that Sif is trying to lure out power roles so the mafia can kill them, and for that reason

Vote: Sifright


Scratch that just reread his post. I'm wary of people that went after Fawful because we found out that Fawful was town (unless you're presuming pinkie pie wasn't town) and two was completely inactive killing 100% inactive people is something i've been against since the START.

Bare in mind voting people shouldn't ever be about one single issue baring a PO going THIS DUDE HERE IS SCUM. We aren't looking for a single smoking gun because you won't find that it has to be about a multitude of issues which stack up over the course of a few game days.

Unfortunately with my handling of certain key issues that puts me in the firing line as well I mean there is legitimate reason to be wary of me.

So yes I went back and looked over people that I believe could be scum to see how they handled voting with regards to Fawful it's why I pointed out RPGDEMON as wanting to kill an inactive because he voted for him which is ostensibly the most important action a person can do. I know Karesh isn't scum but that doesn't mean he can't do things that seem scummy to me.

[Sifright]

You know what i'm going to slave my votes to karesh, I know he isn't scum. Thats good enough for me.

Unvote:Rpgdemon

Vote:Greed

[Fenris]

Sifright, could you like, do me a huge favor and only post one post per coherent thought?

You're sitting at like, 90 more posts than the second place poster but that's because you're posting like 8 posts per 1 bit of content.

[Sifright]

Sifright, could you like, do me a huge favor and only post one post per coherent thought?

You're sitting at like, 90 more posts than the second place poster but that's because you're posting like 8 posts per 1 bit of content.


I'll shut up now.:ohdear:

[Ryanderman]

I don't think he's asking you to shut up. Just, contain your thoughts to single posts in a row?

Before I change my vote to greed, as I really don't like just following the crowd without understanding the reason, could you explain why we're voting for him? We've got all this argument against rpgdemon, and we're voting for greed? Is it just his lack of posting much, and not contributing much to the discussion?

[Nikose Tyris]

UNVOTE: GREED

Because actually

VOTE: RPGDEMON

Because Sifright.

[Oron]

Got back from class and read back through a few posts. I've been stuck on the whole "Sifright vs. RPG" fiasco.

Sif's self votes almost seem like bluffs, as if he's saying, "Vote for me. I dare you." Well, the second one sounded pretty ragequit-ish, but he voted for himself and promptly said how stupid voting for him was while RO and Karesh basically said, "Stop that."

It might just seem like that to me because I've been keeping RPG's arguments in mind while reading through the last couple game-days, though. He's made some points that I thought were agreeable, but he has been pretty ardent in questioning Sifright.

It's kind of a split in between the two in my mind, so I'm going to hold off on voting for a little bit. I'm still really busy because I basically have two or three exams every week (last week was my only week without exams for the last month and a half, which is why I was more active then than I am now). I'll come check on this again later tonight.

[Oron]

Logged back in real quick for a little clarification:

It was Sifright's second self-vote that seemed most bluff-like to me, mostly because:
1) It was the second time he did it.
2) He made that vote in response to RPG pressuring him. That made me think of RPG voting himself into a lynch in the Homestuck Mafia game.

Now I'm off for real.

[Gregness]

So thats 4 non mafia the very least confirmed that Nikose has voted for. obviously when thinking about it my self i'm bumping that number to 5.

Things that worry, high number of players that are making one or two posts a game day and then nothing more. In that list is Oron, Bard, Ryanderman, Greed and Gregness.

So thats five there. I'm working on the assumption that we have five mafia and one SK. Cult were slaughtered night one which is basically a miracle. Chances are one of those five has to be town but they are all equally inactive. RPGDEMON is scummy for the reasons i've listed previously at this point i'm not certain what to do. I also Feel there is a good chance nikose is the SK, with that in mind I'm not going to vote to lynch him.

Unvote: Whoever

Vote:RPGDEMON


HOS: NIKOSE
HOS: Bard
HOS: Gregness
HOS: Ryanderman
HOS: Greed
HOS: Oron


Oh. My. GOD. You're really going to make me do this aren't you?

I know this might be tough given your... restrictions, but that's the second time you've sent a HoS my way and I'm curious why.

One of the chief arguments people have used to convince themselves that IHMN is town is something along the lines of "no one would put themselves through all that on purpose." Think about it though, doesn't that make it the perfect facade? Even if IHMN is telling the truth about derpy, she doesn't have to be town aligned. Derpy seems like a decent enough candidate to be the SK.

Now, the problem with that lies in the flavor text of the night kills. How much can we rely on it for information? This is my first Mafia game, so I don't know how much stock we can usually put in it. Could it be that even IF the flavor text IS technically accurate in that it's a cockatrice making the kills, could the cockatrice be somepony's pet?

I haven't convinced myself of this yet, but I think we should consider these sorts of things so that we can avoid any more screwups like we've had the first two days. Basically, I want to make sure we cover our bases.

HoS: IHMN
HoS: Nikose


HoS on Nikose because he's thrown out half a dozen more flippant contradictions than I'm comfortable with.

that's one...

Actually, I've been TRYING to contribute to the discussion, but people keep ignoring my points in favor of jumping all up on this assinine sif/rpg debate.

And I'd like to contribute more, but quite frankly guys I'm an engineering student and so just combing through the backlog that builds up in this thread takes enough time as it is without ALSO trying to write down coherant and logical arguments.

Granted, not like some people have been even bothering with coherant arguments. :raise:

I still haven't heard anyone actually accuse me of anything beyond being bland I guess? I mean, it's like rpg (I think) was complaining about earlier. I've actually posted somewhere between 5 and 10 times each day but it just doesn't look like much when compared to 100 pages of posts.

Anyway, the big issue here is that our first two days were completely cocked up and so we almost haven't moved past our D1 level of information.

Oh, and I feel like I should refute the idea that a bunch of scum drawing attention to themselves is necessarily a bad idea. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fmDGiAmPjI)

Two...

We also don't know that that's all the scum.

... and three (and this one makes four) so far this game day. Most of which, I might add, have more content than the vast majority of your own posts (the lack of which was pointed out by Fenris).

So tell me: Why am I suspicious again?

[Ryanderman]

Things that worry, high number of players that are making one or two posts a game day and then nothing more. In that list is Oron, Bard, Ryanderman, Greed and Gregness.
I wasn't going to get into arguing this right now, but since Gregness has paved the way... I had 1 post day 1, 5 posts day 2, and this makes 13 posts day 3. Most of those posts have had meaningful content, and I've made a geniune effort to contribute to this game. I don't like being called out for inactivity, when I've specifically been making an effort to be active. I even took the initiative to start a vote for rpgdemon once I was sufficiently confident he was scum. (admittedly, IHMN had already voted for him, but I'd missed that and didn't know till I went back to do a vote count)

So... yeah.

[Sifright]

Got back from class and read back through a few posts. I've been stuck on the whole "Sifright vs. RPG" fiasco.

Sif's self votes almost seem like bluffs, as if he's saying, "Vote for me. I dare you." Well, the second one sounded pretty ragequit-ish, but he voted for himself and promptly said how stupid voting for him was while RO and Karesh basically said, "Stop that."

It might just seem like that to me because I've been keeping RPG's arguments in mind while reading through the last couple game-days, though. He's made some points that I thought were agreeable, but he has been pretty ardent in questioning Sifright.

It's kind of a split in between the two in my mind, so I'm going to hold off on voting for a little bit. I'm still really busy because I basically have two or three exams every week (last week was my only week without exams for the last month and a half, which is why I was more active then than I am now). I'll come check on this again later tonight.

No the first time I sincerely believed that me dieing would be best for town. Confirming karesh was high on my priority list because i believed we had a near 100% chance of lynching a townie regardless and that me dieing would give the town Karesh to form around. I mean I didn't want to be removed from the game but I honestly believed it was for the best with town. I still to this moment can't understand Snakes thinking with not wanting me to be lynched until day 4.

The second time I legitimately was just giving up, I still don't think we can win we have no information on whats going on. Nikose has been shown to be lying and yet there was a lynch wagon forming around me. So forgive me for thinking my death was going to be inevitable and deciding that town was fucked.

See if Nikose had said "I'm the PO" I wouldn't have been out for him to be lynched but like he's coming from a "Maybe i'm a fake PO" which is sketchy as hell. The only thing that worries me is that Snake could have been a miller role which shows up as Scum to the PO. So I'm not sure what to do but again the obscure character is worrying and the fact that he isn't one of the core six from the show makes it unlikely he has a power role.

[Nikose Tyris]

See if Nikose had said "I'm the PO" I wouldn't have been out for him to be lynched but like he's coming from a "Maybe i'm a fake PO" which is sketchy as hell. The only thing that worries me is that Snake could have been a miller role which shows up as Scum to the PO. So I'm not sure what to do but again the obscure character is worrying and the fact that he isn't one of the core six from the show makes it unlikely he has a power role.

Actually, that's incredibly smart. I just assumed I was smarter then Fenris and knew I was a Fake PO.

...Well shit. that's actually horrible then, that I might be the real PO. :/

Why are you logicking this out better then me. Sif?

[Sifright]

Nikose on the off chance you are PO could you look into the people on the HOS: list i made.

Also for gods sake if you are the PO.

[Nikose Tyris]

I support the lynch of RPGdemon today; I will investigate Bard tonight then, assuming I survive the night.

[Revising Ocelot]

Wouldn't a Miller get scanned as generic Scum rather than specifically the Serial Killer? There's also the part where you claim you could do a Night 0 action when nobody else did one. Cops wouldn't get exclusive rights to a Night 0 action, it's far too powerful. I still support a Vig kill on Nikose.

[Nikose Tyris]

There is no verification that I was the only person that received night 0 action; merely that no kill powers received a night 0 action.

Also, my role title specifically supports that night 0 actions should occur, with "nosy neighbor" as opposed to being labelled "PO". My description was that I was PO.

You can go ahead and support a vig kill on me, but as far as I'm concerned, dictating who the vig should/shouldn't kill marks you as at least thrice as scummy as you ever did before, to me.

[IHateMakingNames]

PO
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSOTiHQpvIWEBwKXeYUDDyM7hO6rcgMZ eSt8GShF0P_Hs_vyCiE

[Ryanderman]

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSOTiHQpvIWEBwKXeYUDDyM7hO6rcgMZ eSt8GShF0P_Hs_vyCiE

It's really the only option that makes sense.

[Bard The 5th LW]

I could possibly see Twilight as Inventor. Otherwise, dunno who might be PO. I'm kinda into the series but don't know many of the extras/side characters.

Also, just got back home. Gotta catch up on that backlog.

[Gregness]

There is no verification that I was the only person that received night 0 action; merely that no kill powers received a night 0 action.

Also, my role title specifically supports that night 0 actions should occur, with "nosy neighbor" as opposed to being labelled "PO". My description was that I was PO.

You can go ahead and support a vig kill on me, but as far as I'm concerned, dictating who the vig should/shouldn't kill marks you as at least thrice as scummy as you ever did before, to me.

Since you've already roleclaimed Nik, who did you investigate which night and what was the result?

[Nikose Tyris]

I suppose I should probably roleclaim now, huh?


ROLECLAIM: CARROT TOP - Nosey Neighbor.

See, I was told that I was the PO role. I targetted Smarty Night 0, and Snake night 1. I got "Cult" for Smarty, and I got "Serial Killer" for Snake. :/ Clearly I'm a broken PO, or a random misrole, so I'm pretty much useless here.

Also IHMN turned up Town

Smarty Night 0, Snake Night 1, and IHMN Night 2, as stated alongside my roleclaim.

The biggest points of contention here are a) that I had a night 0 action, and b) that everyone I investigated, excluding IHMN, is dead. Also, my night 1 gave a false-positive on Zecora as the SK.

[Gregness]

Smarty Night 0, Snake Night 1, and IHMN Night 2, as stated alongside my roleclaim.

The biggest points of contention here are a) that I had a night 0 action, and b) that everyone I investigated, excluding IHMN, is dead. Also, my night 1 gave a false-positive on Zecora as the SK.

In that case, I call extreme amounts of bullshit.

For you see, I am none other than Rarity, Element of Generosity and I know for a fact you didn't investigate anyone last night because I roleblocked you.

(I mean, hell, it's my first mafia game and I'm entitled to be reckless dammit!)

[Sifright]

unvote:greed

Vote:Nikose

Okay with that information I'm up for lynching nikose out of the game. Unless we have some one who will counter claim

[Ryanderman]

Ok, so does Gregness's roleclaim make sense? Is roleblocking a power that fits Rarity? And is there any reason a mafiate might play this gambit?

In lieu of significant answers to those questions, I'll

Unvote: rpgdemon

Vote: Nikose

[Gregness]

The flavor I was given is that since I'm the caretaker of the carousel boutique, I can give any pony I like a makeover that will make them indisposed.

Also, what should we make of the fact that Nik was trying to cover for IHMN?

EDIT: also, I suppose I should vote, huh?

Vote: Nikose Tyris

[Sifright]

The flavor I was given is that since I'm the caretaker of the carousel boutique, I can give any pony I like a makeover that will make them indisposed.

Also, what should we make of the fact that Nik was trying to cover for IHMN?

EDIT: also, I suppose I should vote, huh?

Vote: Nikose Tyris


I'm of the opinion nikose knew he was going to be lynched and thus if he is mafia I would almost certainly presume he was trying to trick us into thinking IHMN is mafia as well.

[Revising Ocelot]

I'm still of the opinion that Nikose is overly suspicious and that voting him might not work out that well, but there's a chance I'm wrong, so I'm not going to deter you guys.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Ok, so does Gregness's roleclaim make sense? Is roleblocking a power that fits Rarity? And is there any reason a mafiate might play this gambit?

In lieu of significant answers to those questions, I'll

Unvote: rpgdemon

Vote: Nikose

Only 1 that I can see; they are fearful that he may indeed be the PO and his investigative powers are a threat to them, even if they are (maybe) broken. This allows them to get town to vote out another power role whilst they kill off someone else tonight. That's the only reason I can see.

Weren't we all worried a little while ago though about Nik being jester and trying to get himself lynched though? I thought we were voting to not vote him off?

[Ryanderman]

That's a point. Gregness's information can't differentiate between Nikose lying because he's scum, or lying because he's the jester. If Gregness is telling the truth, all we know is that Nikose is, again, lying. Would it still be wise to not lynch him today?

[Sifright]

It's the best lead we have, WE have no proof of the existence of a jester beyond conjecture. Not lynching him on that basis is ridiculous. Plus the Jester usually means a draw with which ever faction wins so it's pretty much a non-issue.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Yeah to be fair I am more inclined to believe Greg. I haven't seen anything from him that seems scummy, and if he is lying we immediately know he's lying after tonight, or even today if another player comes out and also claims to be Rarity. Though that in itself could be just part of a larger xanatos gambit to get the town to reveal another potential power role if the initial attempt to get Nik lynched fails.

On their own, both roleclaims do have some vailidity, but at least Gregs can be easily checked if he is lying and would benefit scum less overall.

EDIT Also overall all of the characters who've been revealed have been named characters from the show. Niks is the only claim that breaks this mould (well, asside from Sifs Whooves, but I'm still wary of you and he at least is a well established fan character).

[Sifright]

Yeah to be fair I am more inclined to believe Greg. I haven't seen anything from him that seems scummy, and if he is lying we immediately know he's lying after tonight, or even today if another player comes out and also claims to be Rarity. Though that in itself could be just part of a larger xanatos gambit to get the town to reveal another potential power role if the initial attempt to get Nik lynched fails.

On their own, both roleclaims do have some vailidity, but at least Gregs can be easily checked if he is lying and would benefit scum less overall.


Okay, the way I see it there are three possible results to this .

1) Nikose is Mafia AND gregness is Mafia.

2) Nikose Isn't mafia we end up lynching the PO. Vig kills Gregness afterwards.

3) Nikose Is Mafia and Gregness is town.

Personally I'm hoping it's number three but I fear number 1 is a possibility. What isn't stopping me for now is the fact that no one is counter claiming rarity and the lying nikose has done earlier in the thread. So lynch on nikose even before this was justified with the new information it's now warranted as a top priority.

[Revising Ocelot]

The Nikose uncertainty is why I was advocating the Vigilante to target him. If he's a Jester, then we've avoided him scuppering the game. If he's normal Scum, it's still a good thing. If he's Town... well, that's not looking likely at this point.

[Revising Ocelot]

EDIT Also overall all of the characters who've been revealed have been named characters from the show. Niks is the only claim that breaks this mould (well, asside from Sifs Whooves, but I'm still wary of you and he at least is a well established fan character).

What about IHMN's Derpy thingymabob? Don't know the show myself but is there an actual pony called Derpy?

[Sifright]

What about IHMN's Derpy thingymabob? Don't know the show myself but is there an actual pony called Derpy?

I've seen it with two different names Ditsy doo and Derpy hooves.

[Bard The 5th LW]

EDIT Also overall all of the characters who've been revealed have been named characters from the show. Niks is the only claim that breaks this mould (well, asside from Sifs Whooves, but I'm still wary of you and he at least is a well established fan character).

Derpy hasn't officially had a name from what I know (for what its worth anyways). But yeah, this is all sorts of suspicious. I'm gonna wait for Nik's response, see if he digs his hole deeper. I'm about ready to unvote RPG.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Has he actually claimed to be Derpy? I don't recall if he was ever explicit. Either way I can give him the benefit of the doubt on that, because that's another well known fannon character like Whooves. I could imagine them being given roles. Carrot Top...not so much.

[Bard The 5th LW]

http://mlp.wikia.com/wiki/Carrot_Top

Thats about all I know about her.

[Sifright]

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/derpy.gif



http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/facehoof.png


Has been refered to as derpy hooves and Ditsy doo in fanon.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

And I just checked the wiki on jester. It does seem that even if they "win", the game probably doesn't end until either town or mafia also win. We should really not be so fearful of the jester, it is a literally pointless role.

[Sifright]

Voting situation

Sifright:1
Rpgdemon

Nikose:3
Gregness
Ryanderman
Sifright

Greed:4
Hawk
Karesh
Aldurin
Revolving ocelot

Rpgdemon:2/3?
Nikose
Verfiedz
Bard (didn't use full name to vote for Rpgdemon might not count?)

[Nikose Tyris]

Two quick issues, Gregness.

1) You roleblocked a role that passively investigates. I'm not 100% sure that I -CAN- be roleblocked properly;

2) Why is Rarity a roleblocker? That's the least likely role for her I can think of. Her special talent is generosity [and Gem detection]; How exactly does Rarity fit with that role at all?

UNVOTE: RPGDEMON

VOTE: GREGNESS

I'm calling you out. If anyone's a roleblocker, it would be Spike. I'd wager you're a mafiate trying to down a confessed investigator, and have a Mafiate protector to cover you in the night.

[Nikose Tyris]

PS: I roleclaimed today; why would you roleblock me last night? little bit coincidental there, buddy.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Thats pretty much where I'm confused as towards Greg's claim. I'm not seeing the shoe fit. Unlike the last situation, with RPG and Sif, I think this either a yay or neigh, yes or no, truth or lie situation.

Like, if Zecora is the Miller, then that might just verify Nik's statements. Either he's lying to save himself, or Greg is lying to get him killed. And I can't see Rarity in particular being RB. Greg, could you perhaps post the flavor text (paraphrase it)? That ususally includes the role justification.

[Fenris]

Just a heads up for all of you-tonight is homecoming here at University so any problems of yours that may arise can wait until tomorrow goddamn afternoon.

Don't break anything while I'm gone, and clean up any spills, thanks!

[Oron]

Just got a break in the usual Saturday activities and festivities. Greg's last claim intrigues me as it either digs a deeper hole for Nik or screws Greg over. I want to see Greg post again before I start thinking about voting.

Somebody who gives makeovers seems more to me like an investigative role with something such as "Rarity gave this pony a makeover and discovered what said pony was doing that night," happening. Does that sound plausible to anyone else? Didn't Nik or somebody mention something about a "Nosy Neighbor" type of role?

[Gregness]

Two quick issues, Gregness.

1) You roleblocked a role that passively investigates. I'm not 100% sure that I -CAN- be roleblocked properly;

2) Why is Rarity a roleblocker? That's the least likely role for her I can think of. Her special talent is generosity [and Gem detection]; How exactly does Rarity fit with that role at all?

*cut because it's not relevant to my point*



1) Oh, so you passively investigate now? Look, I've said a number of times that this is my first mafia game but I mean how is that even supposed to work? Fenris just PM's you info about someone at random? That's just a touch too convenient for you in this instance don't you think? If we add that to your claims earlier your investigation power is both out of your control AND has the possibility of being wrong? I don't buy it.

2)As for this one, well:

The flavor I was given is that since I'm the caretaker of the carousel boutique, I can give any pony I like a makeover that will make them indisposed.

*cut for relevance*


I covered that earlier.

Also, I roleblocked you last night because there were already suspicions floating around about you and I quite frankly didn't have enough information to really justify doing it to anyone else.

Speaking of nights, I can't think of a likely chain of events that leaves me alive tomorrow. :(

[Verifiedz]

UNVOTE: whoever I voted before

VOTE:Nikose

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

1) Oh, so you passively investigate now? Look, I've said a number of times that this is my first mafia game but I mean how is that even supposed to work? Fenris just PM's you info about someone at random? That's just a touch too convenient for you in this instance don't you think? If we add that to your claims earlier your investigation power is both out of your control AND has the possibility of being wrong? I don't buy it.

I believe the passive refers to the method of investigation.

Contextually with "Nosy Neighbor as the role name it makes sense that an active PO investigates the home of the accused and finds evidence. A passive one waits outside the house to see what the occupant is doing.

In addition there are several cases of Investigators being falsely led. They refer to this as "Sanity", a paranoid investigator always turns up scum, a naive one turns up only innocent.

Or...well, there's always the namesake pair. the 'Sane' cop and the insane cop. Who always gets incorrect results.
With that in mind it's possible that while Nikose has no functionality in accurate guesses, through his own inaccuracy he may have a use.

Yes I do wholeheartedly believe that the moment Fenris realized Nikose was given such a role he chose insanity as that roles key factor.

[IHateMakingNames]

Okay with that information I'm up for lynching nikose out of the game. Unless we have some one who will counter claim
even today if another player comes out and also claims to be Rarity.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/129883248048-Rarity_Breakdown.gif



Or...well, there's always the namesake pair. the 'Sane' cop and the insane cop. Who always gets incorrect results.
With that in mind it's possible that while Nikose has no functionality in accurate guesses, through his own inaccuracy he may have a use.

Yes I do wholeheartedly believe that the moment Fenris realized Nikose was given such a role he chose insanity as that roles key factor.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/4oLPO.gif
Also IHMN turned up Town



Vote:Nikose
Vigilante to target him.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/185px-RarityShrug.png

[Gregness]

...

Are you seriously trying to counterclaim as Rarity when you've previously claimed as Derpy? Like, I'll admit that I'm already suspicious of you but I'm going give you the benefit of the doubt about this due to the difficulties of posting only in .gifs and images.

What exactly are you saying in that first part?

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/4oLPO.gif


http://localhostr.com/file/HWDghfV/1308592259005.gif

[IHateMakingNames]

...

Are you seriously trying to counterclaim as Rarity when you've previously claimed as Derpy? Like, I'll admit that I'm already suspicious of you but I'm going give you the benefit of the doubt about this due to the difficulties of posting only in .gifs and images.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/pinkieno-1.gif

What exactly are you saying in that first part?
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spike3-1.gif

[Aldurin]

UNVOTE: whoever I voted before

VOTE:Nikose

I swear to god I will beat you with a stick through the internet.

[Gregness]

I swear to god I will beat you with a stick through the internet.

Yeah, if for some reason we run out of scum leads again I'd support a Policy Lynch on Verifiedz. (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Policy_lynch)

I mean, not like I'm expecting to live to tomorrow, but still.

[IHateMakingNames]

Mr.Bookworm, Sweetie Belle, Cutie Mark Crusader, Town-aligned was sent to a dungeon on the moon.
Cutie Mark Crusader, Town-aligned
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/ccc.png


http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/160px-AppleBloomSquare.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/160px-Scootaloo.png
claim
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/BonBonShrug.png






Probably because it's been a pretty uphill battle for him to try and convince everyone to trust us when really all the pair of us need is for enough of the town to trust us enough not to lynch us.

Of the list, here's what I think in broadest terms:

Town
1. Karesh
2. Sifright
4. Earl
5. Gregness
6. Hawk
8. IHateMakingNames

Ok, lets think this through guys Alds definately town, I'm stating my self and Karesh to be TOWN. If the PO has proof that either my self or Karesh and two other townies are TOWN I think it might an idea for him to shout that information out that would give a 6 man voting block bringing us to 40% of the votes and players from there If the mafia have 5 players and an SK thats 40%. which leaves 20% of the players unverified. That leads to us being able to have a 2-1 chance of lynching a mafia player and the vig has an even better time of it later on presuming he isn't one of the ones identifyed by the PO


PO if you can fulfill that condition of confirming my self and two other townies please do it. Nikose is claiming 'wrong PO'
Personally I think if we did a full role call it would work pretty well but thats risky.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/derpy_shrug-n1307422713921.png

[IHateMakingNames]

4. Karesh
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/210px-Fluttershy_crushing_apple_S1E10.png
7. Sifright
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Doctor_Whooves_id.png
10. Earl
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Mayor.png
12. Gregness
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/210px-Rarity_opening_theme.png
21. IHateMakingNames
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/250px-DerpyCompetition1-1.png

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/160px-Scootaloo.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/160px-AppleBloomSquare.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/tumblr_lq3gyuOKWL1qf1bz5.jpg
8





The Players

In Ponyville
1. Bard

3. Nikose
4. Karesh

6. greed
7. Sifright

9. Verifiedz
10. Earl

12. Gregness
13. rpgdemon
14. Julford Hajime
15. Hawk

17. Ryanderman
18. Revolving Ocelot


21. IHateMakingNames
22. Oron

15

Personally I think if we did a full role call it would work pretty well but thats risky.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/derpy_shrug-n1307422713921.png

[IHateMakingNames]

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/250px-Rainbow_Dash_opening_theme.png
9

[Sifright]

I believe the passive refers to the method of investigation.

Contextually with "Nosy Neighbor as the role name it makes sense that an active PO investigates the home of the accused and finds evidence. A passive one waits outside the house to see what the occupant is doing.

In addition there are several cases of Investigators being falsely led. They refer to this as "Sanity", a paranoid investigator always turns up scum, a naive one turns up only innocent.

Or...well, there's always the namesake pair. the 'Sane' cop and the insane cop. Who always gets incorrect results.
With that in mind it's possible that while Nikose has no functionality in accurate guesses, through his own inaccuracy he may have a use.

Yes I do wholeheartedly believe that the moment Fenris realized Nikose was given such a role he chose insanity as that roles key factor.

Karesh given how gregness stated his ability to work I think Nikose is lying out his ass. Things to consider about this situation, we are at an either or scenario and given how nikose is trying to frame the situation I don't think there is much chance he is town now, besides which he is still CHOOSING to investigate people that doesn't sound passive to me.


Yeah, if for some reason we run out of scum leads again I'd support a Policy Lynch on Verifiedz. (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Policy_lynch)

I mean, not like I'm expecting to live to tomorrow, but still.


No bad idea, next game day is to crucial to kill some out of it just because they are a bad player we don't have the numbers left to the make that sensible.

given a worst case scenario, it's possible town will be down to a mislynch and lose. optimistically with the events going on now though I think we will have at least one more game day before it's mislynch and lose.

Assuming 5 mafiates and that we kill one today via lynch and assuming none of the night actions hit a mafia player, game day tomorrow will have us down to 7 Town, 1 Sk and 4 Mafia. (I think this result

more likely at this point. The vig hits a mafia as well

giving us 8 town 1sk and 3 mafia.


So a full roleclaim at this point probably isn't warranted.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I support the lynch of RPGdemon today; I will investigate Bard tonight then, assuming I survive the night.

This is a clear indication that Nikoses ability requires him to send a name to Fenris to investigate them, which is exactly how a PO role would work. As such, it is 100% possible for a roleblocker to roleblock them.

The only point of contention I can see is how did gregness know to roleblock Nik last night, but even that isn't really unnusual. If he has a powerole, he may as well use it on a different person each night. If he happens to hit somebody and block their role ability that night, then it shows up in the fluff the next day (such as there suddenly being no SK or vig kill), confirming that persons role for him.

I admit it does seem coincidental, but it may really not be. I would be interested to know who else greg has attempted to block each night as well.

[Sifright]

This is a clear indication that Nikoses ability requires him to send a name to Fenris to investigate them, which is exactly how a PO role would work. As such, it is 100% possible for a roleblocker to roleblock them.

The only point of contention I can see is how did gregness know to roleblock Nik last night, but even that isn't really unnusual. If he has a powerole, he may as well use it on a different person each night. If he happens to hit somebody and block their role ability that night, then it shows up in the fluff the next day (such as there suddenly being no SK or vig kill), confirming that persons role for him.

I admit it does seem coincidental, but it may really not be. I would be interested to know who else greg has attempted to block each night as well.

Part i've bolded is very important. IF we know every one who Gregness has roleblocked we know who can't be the SK as the SK has killed every night. So this information is very useful for later game days.

Also, Nikose has been suspicious since day 2 with his posts especially lying about the things snake said and trying lead a lynch on him. So roleblocking Nikose doesn't seem that unusual to me.

Tempted to go back and do post by post analysis on peoples posts from earlier but I fear my analysis will be tainted by confirmation bias.

[Gregness]

I blocked Snake night 1 and Nikose night 2 so unfortunately, that doesn't help much with finding the serial killer.

EDIT: Basically, I was going to try to do what you guys are talking about (block someone each night 'till a kill disappears) and so when there wasn't a mafia kill today I was immediately suspicious of Nikose. Then with the investigator claim I figured giving us a solid lead was worth putting a target on my back and giving up potential information on future nights.

[Bard The 5th LW]

The roleblock does certainly stack against Nikose's guilt, but it seems that the SK and Mafia both targeted the same person rather than the mafia not killing anyone, if I interpret the NightmareMoon/Cackatrice combo appearance correctly. So if anything, the SK and Mafia are thinking alike.

e: IHMN, I'm a bit lost. You've been doing well so far, but some of these are confusing me.

[Sifright]

The roleblock does certainly stack against Nikose's guilt, but it seems that the SK and Mafia both targeted the same person rather than the mafia not killing anyone, if I interpret the NightmareMoon/Cackatrice combo appearance correctly. So if anything, the SK and Mafia are thinking alike.

e: IHMN, I'm a bit lost. You've been doing well so far, but some of these are confusing me.

I think he is asking for a mass role claim. At least that was my assumption given his lack of quoting nikose and posting an image of carrot top I presume those are also the people he believes are town.

[Verifiedz]

UNVOTE:NIKOSE

Vote:rpgdemon

[Gregness]

If so, that seems like a bad idea. If we're going on the assumption that Nik is lying about being the PO, then that means the only exposed power role is me, and with the lack of information we currently have I don't think potentially exposing the vig and PO are worth it at this point (not to mention the Doc if we have one in addition to the bodyguard).

[Sifright]

UNVOTE:NIKOSE

Vote:rpgdemon



I don't even. What are you doing I mean...

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7370/9928770.jpg


Seriously explain why you are doing things please Verifiedz.


If so, that seems like a bad idea. If we're going on the assumption that Nik is lying about being the PO, then that means the only exposed power role is me, and with the lack of information we currently have I don't think potentially exposing the vig and PO are worth it at this point (not to mention the Doc if we have one in addition to the bodyguard).

Yes and No. See a mass role claim of the town power roles at this point gives us targets to avoid. The mafia can only kill one a Night although with the SK we could lose two. Which given the people who I know to be town gives up to seven People who are likely to be town. So mass role claiming at this point COULD be very beneficial to us. If we do have a doctor still alive though don't roleclaim unless we are about to lynch you mistakenly.

So pros, with a full roleclaim of the town powers (barring doctor) we have a list of people to avoid lynching unless there are counter claims which would give us a list of mafia any way. Secondly from that list we would have a much smaller set of candidates for the Mafia and SK.

Cons, we could lose the rest of the town power roles in one or two nights depending on whether we have a doctor remaining or not.

So it's up to every one else to decide whether a mass role claim is a good idea, I'm kind of in favour of it but we should aim for a very high consensus rate before that is deployed.

[Fenris]

Deadline Tuesday evening!

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

So pros, with a full roleclaim of the town powers (barring doctor) we have a list of people to avoid lynching unless there are counter claims which would give us a list of mafia any way. Secondly from that list we would have a much smaller set of candidates for the Mafia and SK.


Assuming the SK can aim properly it's likely he/she would be going for Mafiate candidates at this point. Part of being on your own means at some point you need to weaken both sides. Not just the town.

[rpgdemon]

So pros, with a full roleclaim of the town powers (barring doctor) we have a list of people to avoid lynching unless there are counter claims which would give us a list of mafia any way. Secondly from that list we would have a much smaller set of candidates for the Mafia and SK.

Cons, we could lose the rest of the town power roles in one or two nights depending on whether we have a doctor remaining or not.

It wouldn't quite work that way. If we have someone who claims a role, for example, someone else claiming the same role doesn't prove who's scum and who's town. It just means that the scum get to obfuscate the results, while seeing who's who.

I'm not sure how the math works out on losing two guaranteed townies a day, then narrowing down who we lose to essentially a 50/50 shot at scum on the other days, but I think we lose that race.

[Sifright]

Sk won't keep killing townies or he ends up losing the game when there is nothing but mafia left, also once we have killed one mafia player we learn alot more about who the other mafia players are.


Edit: I wasn't suggesting we murder off every player that doesn't role claim a power role especially if we have something silly like 5 counter claims on roles.

[IHateMakingNames]

The roleblock does certainly stack against Nikose's guilt, but it seems that the SK and Mafia both targeted the same person rather than the mafia not killing anyone, if I interpret the NightmareMoon/Cackatrice combo appearance correctly. So if anything, the SK and Mafia are thinking alike.

e: IHMN, I'm a bit lost. You've been doing well so far, but some of these are confusing me.

In The Forest
5. Solid Snake - Led Astray Night 2

Turned to Stone
5. Solid Snake - Petrified Night 2

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/nod4.gif





[size=5]The Players

In Ponyville
1. Bard

3. Nikose
4. Karesh

6. greed
7. Sifright

9. Verifiedz
10. Earl

12. Gregness
13. rpgdemon
14. Julford Hajime
15. Hawk

17. Ryanderman
18. Revolving Ocelot


21. IHateMakingNames
22. Oron

role call
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/sdfgfd.gif

[Verifiedz]

I don't even. What are you doing I mean...

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7370/9928770.jpg


Seriously explain why you are doing things please Verifiedz.




Yes and No. See a mass role claim of the town power roles at this point gives us targets to avoid. The mafia can only kill one a Night although with the SK we could lose two. Which given the people who I know to be town gives up to seven People who are likely to be town. So mass role claiming at this point COULD be very beneficial to us. If we do have a doctor still alive though don't roleclaim unless we are about to lynch you mistakenly.

So pros, with a full roleclaim of the town powers (barring doctor) we have a list of people to avoid lynching unless there are counter claims which would give us a list of mafia any way. Secondly from that list we would have a much smaller set of candidates for the Mafia and SK.

Cons, we could lose the rest of the town power roles in one or two nights depending on whether we have a doctor remaining or not.

So it's up to every one else to decide whether a mass role claim is a good idea, I'm kind of in favour of it but we should aim for a very high consensus rate before that is deployed.
Nikose is a cop isn't he? Someone had a quote that showed nikose saying he'll investigate someone.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I don't know whether there is a facepalm big enough for verifiedz. Are you actually reading the read dude? Like, at all? Because part of playing this game is having to read what's going on and understanding what's going on.

[Bard The 5th LW]

You are allowed to claim to be anyone you want. Doesn't mean its true. There is a decent chance he's lying.

[Verifiedz]

Sad face

[Revising Ocelot]

Isn't Verifiedz 13? I wouldn't expect 13 year olds to fully comprehend subtle deception, half-truths, all the psychological factors in a forum game like this. He's skimming posts, and just changing on whims without making his own decisions.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Never underestimate the 13 year old RO. It will be your undoing.

[IHateMakingNames]

I am none other than Rarity, Element of Generosity
Okay with that information I'm up for lynching nikose out of the game. Unless we have some one who will counter claim
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images.jpg

Vote: Nikose

[Verifiedz]

Isn't Verifiedz 13? I wouldn't expect 13 year olds to fully comprehend subtle deception, half-truths, all the psychological factors in a forum game like this. He's skimming posts, and just changing on whims without making his own decisions.
I'm 11 actually

[Bard The 5th LW]

Even more sinister

[Sifright]

So can we get peoples opinions on whats going on? The dead line is tomorrow and I'd rather we didn't do something stupid like a no lynch given the latest events.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

What's the vote count at the moment? Are we swinging from greed to nikose now then?

[Sifright]

Voting situation

Sifright:1
Rpgdemon

Nikose:3
Gregness
Ryanderman
Sifright

Greed:4
Hawk
Karesh
Aldurin
Revolving ocelot

Rpgdemon:2/3?
Nikose
Verfiedz
Bard (didn't use full name to vote for Rpgdemon might not count?)


New voting situation.




Sifright:1
Rpgdemon

Nikose:3
Gregness
Ryanderman
Sifright

Greed:4
Hawk
Karesh
Aldurin
Revolving ocelot

Rpgdemon:2
Verfiedz
Bard

Gregness:1
Nikose

Unless I've missed anything.

Things to worry about. Mafia can quick hammer near the deadline to ensure that a townie gets hit by increasing the votes on a town until it's the highest but not enough to ensure auto lynch. Basically unless we have at least 7 people voting on one person chances are mafia will lynch a townie.

[rpgdemon]

Things to worry about. Mafia can quick hammer near the deadline to ensure that a townie gets hit by increasing the votes on a town until it's the highest but not enough to ensure auto lynch. Basically unless we have at least 7 people voting on one person chances are mafia will lynch a townie.

If that happened, it would be incredibly obvious, at least, and we'd have a list. Granted, I feel as if it's already been happening, considering the number of times around 3-5ish people have kept going, "Oh, wait, new target? Okay, switch.", with little intermediate.

Unvote: Sifright
Vote: Nikose

[Sifright]

Yea I don't understand the jump to greed. I mean I know you won't like this but out of all the targets objectively speaking Myself RPGdemon and Nikose are the most likely candidates. I don't understand why every one is jumping on greed. What makes it especially confusing is at least two of the people on greed are town.

Edit: i'm aware i voted for greed but I was going to slave my vote to what ever karesh voted but given gregnesses roleclaim I think Nikose is much more likely to be mafia.

[rpgdemon]

If Nik is actually the PO, it'll at least give us information on Gregness.

Baaaaaaad information.

[Ryanderman]

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

[Sifright]

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

You know what I think you are right I think he is the SK, Which is exactly why i've no reason to go after him. The only people who will be massively concerned with that at the moment will be Mafia, because he has the power to weaken them quite a bit. Town needs to be more focused on murdering mafia at the moment.

[Ryanderman]

You know what I think you are right I think he is the SK, Which is exactly why i've no reason to go after him. The only people who will be massively concerned with that at the moment will be Mafia, because he has the power to weaken them quite a bit. Town needs to be more focused on murdering mafia at the moment.
Yeah, but my concern is that while he can hurt the mafia, he isn't going to be trying to right now. I don't know.


This next is me thinking out loud.

How would he think? He needs you dead, and for you to have been lying for him to have a chance to win. So if he can't kill you today, he'll do so tonight. But then, when you turn out to have been telling the truth... he won't be able to convince anyone to lynch Karesh, and he won't be able to risk trying to kill him at night... so his only option will be to try to draw with the town by being the last alive, along with Karesh.

How would he accomplish that goal? He needs to eliminate other night kill roles so they can't kill him, and try to talk his way out of being lynched. A tall order. But the only way to have a chance to talk his way out, is to avoid being proven to be the SK.

There are two ways I can think of he could be proven to be SK aside from lynching:
1) The PO investigates him, roleclaims, and outs him
2) Gregness roleblocks him, we see the SK had no action at night, and Gregness confirms his roleblock.

So he has two goals, eliminate night kill roles (Vig and mafia), and eliminate the investigative roles. If there are 5 mafiates, then at maximum kill rate, it would take until tomorrow night to kill all the mafiates. (1 lynch today, 1 Vig kill tonight, 1 SK kill tonight, 1 lynch tomorrow, 1 Vig/SK kill tomorrow night) That's two nights in which investigative roles can out him, and the mafia and vig can kill him.

I think he's going to need to try to go after those he can hit to help his chances immediately. Hitting mafia has a delayed benefit, and leaves him more exposed for the next two nights. I think he's going to have to go after town (Vig, PO, and Gregness).

While weakening the mafia for end game is a thing I'm sure the SK would love to do, he has far more pressing immediate survival issues to deal with right now.

Yeah, the SK isn't that much of a threat to the town overall, but I think he's going to feel that he needs to target town. And so he's going to weaken the town, which will help the mafia, which is a big threat to the town.

I think I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being.

[Sifright]

Yeah, but my concern is that while he can hurt the mafia, he isn't going to be trying to right now. I don't know.


This next is me thinking out loud.

How would he think? He needs you dead, and for you to have been lying for him to have a chance to win. So if he can't kill you today, he'll do so tonight. But then, when you turn out to have been telling the truth... he won't be able to convince anyone to lynch Karesh, and he won't be able to risk trying to kill him at night... so his only option will be to try to draw with the town by being the last alive, along with Karesh.

How would he accomplish that goal? He needs to eliminate other night kill roles so they can't kill him, and try to talk his way out of being lynched. A tall order. But the only way to have a chance to talk his way out, is to avoid being proven to be the SK.

There are two ways I can think of he could be proven to be SK aside from lynching:
1) The PO investigates him, roleclaims, and outs him
2) Gregness roleblocks him, we see the SK had no action at night, and Gregness confirms his roleblock.

So he has two goals, eliminate night kill roles (Vig and mafia), and eliminate the investigative roles. If there are 5 mafiates, then at maximum kill rate, it would take until tomorrow night to kill all the mafiates. (1 lynch today, 1 Vig kill tonight, 1 SK kill tonight, 1 lynch tomorrow, 1 Vig/SK kill tomorrow night) That's two nights in which investigative roles can out him, and the mafia and vig can kill him.

I think he's going to need to try to go after those he can hit to help his chances immediately. Hitting mafia has a delayed benefit, and leaves him more exposed for the next two nights. I think he's going to have to go after town (Vig, PO, and Gregness).

While weakening the mafia for end game is a thing I'm sure the SK would love to do, he has far more pressing immediate survival issues to deal with right now.

Yeah, the SK isn't that much of a threat to the town overall, but I think he's going to feel that he needs to target town. And so he's going to weaken the town, which will help the mafia, which is a big threat to the town.

I think I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being.

Well if he does kill me during the night he does, he is going to be one very disappointed bunny... :)

Also the chances of us killing, mafia at the rate you described are so astonishingly low I don't even know how to describe it. more likely there will be mix of town and mafia kills during the next two day/night cycles and killing some one we can almost confirm to be mafia with our day lynch is far more important for now. We need the confirmation that a day lynch will bring on Nikose to find out more information.

[IHateMakingNames]

HoS: Ryanderman

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/4oLPO.gif


so his only option will be to try to draw with the town by being the last alive, along with Karesh.
Yeah, the SK isn't that much of a threat to the town overall, but I think he's going to feel that he needs to target town. And so he's going to weaken the town, which will help the mafia, which is a big threat to the town.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/131611626603.gif

[Ryanderman]

Well if he does kill me during the night he does, he is going to be one very disappointed bunny... :)

Also the chances of us killing, mafia at the rate you described are so astonishingly low I don't even know how to describe it. more likely there will be mix of town and mafia kills during the next two day/night cycles and killing some one we can almost confirm to be mafia with our day lynch is far more important for now. We need the confirmation that a day lynch will bring on Nikose to find out more information.

Exactly. The rate I gave was extremely optomistic, from the SK's point of view. If the SK also believes it's going to take a lot longer to kill the Mafia off, no matter what he does, he's going to have even more incentive to target town, to target threats he can eliminate quickly, and who can end his chances just as quickly.

The point of lynching Nikose to get more information, to help in finding the rest of the mafiates has merit though. But how long do you want to wait to get the SK? 1 day? 2? Every day we wait is a chance for him to hit town, and I seriously think that's what he's going to do.

If we lynch Nikose today, and the vig kills rpgdemon tonight, then we get the info we need from Nikose, and the SK gets one more chance to kill a townie.

If we lynch the rpgdemon today, and the vig kills Nikose tonight, then we've prevented the SK from killing any more town, and we still get the info we need from Nikose. I think that's the better option.

[rpgdemon]

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

So, you're saying that I'm the SK, and instead of trying to kill the person who's unkillable, I'm going to base my chances of winning on getting information that doesn't change the game state at all?

There is so much wrong with that it's not even funny. The logic is one massive gaping hole, and if you can't see it, either you're scum and trying to pin blame on someone else, or the town loses anyway.

There is literally no reason for an SK to target Sifright, either for lynching or for a night kill. It doesn't increase their position any, except if Sif flips scum. But if he doesn't, then not only is nothing gained, but now a huge thing is lost, as the town will never lynch Karesh, since Sif/Karesh would probably be telling the truth.

In fact, lynching Sif means a 50/50 shot at the SK losing the game on the spot, and nothing changing about the game state.

I'm not dumb. I wouldn't do something that has a 50% chance of me losing on the spot, and a 50% chance of absolutely nothing changing. Making for a lynch on Sif is the worst move possible for the SK, which is another reason it's a good move for the town. Even if he is town, we get a guaranteed townie, and a guarantee that the SK can't win. If he's scum, we get two scummates, and the SK still has to worry about another player being a bomb/bulletproof.

If I were SK, I wouldn't want to verify anything. I would ignore the case which means that the game is unwinnable, and assume that Sif or Karesh is lying. Looking for proof that he's lying wouldn't change the facts at all, so getting proof that he's lying wouldn't help me, and if it proved that he's telling the truth, then I'd have just lost the game as Karesh would never be killed.

I'm actually rather insulted by how much of a poor logician/rationalist that you think I am, that you think that your "conclusion" is something that I'd act upon. Either that, or, you're the SK and trying to kill the person who proposed a plan that makes the game unwinnable for you.

Unvote: Nik
Vote: Ryanderman

[Ryanderman]

HoS: Ryanderman


http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/131611626603.gif

A good point (at least I think it's a point), but while the SK can't beat the town, I think he's still going to need to eliminate those in the town who can kill or out him. And I think that's goint to take more priority for him than killing mafia, at least for now.

But this really is all speculation, based on how I'd act were I SK. If there's a more logical reason why he'd go after mafia instead of town, I'm all for considering that, and switching back.

[Ryanderman]

So, you're saying that I'm the SK, and instead of trying to kill the person who's unkillable, I'm going to base my chances of winning on getting information that doesn't change the game state at all?

There is so much wrong with that it's not even funny. The logic is one massive gaping hole, and if you can't see it, either you're scum and trying to pin blame on someone else, or the town loses anyway.

There is literally no reason for an SK to target Sifright, either for lynching or for a night kill. It doesn't increase their position any, except if Sif flips scum. But if he doesn't, then not only is nothing gained, but now a huge thing is lost, as the town will never lynch Karesh, since Sif/Karesh would probably be telling the truth.

In fact, lynching Sif means a 50/50 shot at the SK losing the game on the spot, and nothing changing about the game state.

I'm not dumb. I wouldn't do something that has a 50% chance of me losing on the spot, and a 50% chance of absolutely nothing changing. Making for a lynch on Sif is the worst move possible for the SK, which is another reason it's a good move for the town. Even if he is town, we get a guaranteed townie, and a guarantee that the SK can't win. If he's scum, we get two scummates, and the SK still has to worry about another player being a bomb/bulletproof.

If I were SK, I wouldn't want to verify anything. I would ignore the case which means that the game is unwinnable, and assume that Sif or Karesh is lying. Looking for proof that he's lying wouldn't change the facts at all, so getting proof that he's lying wouldn't help me, and if it proved that he's telling the truth, then I'd have just lost the game as Karesh would never be killed.

I'm actually rather insulted by how much of a poor logician/rationalist that you think I am, that you think that your "conclusion" is something that I'd act upon. Either that, or, you're the SK and trying to kill the person who proposed a plan that makes the game unwinnable for you.

Unvote: Nik
Vote: Ryanderman

Confirming Karesh doesn't lose the SK anything. Everyone in the game is acting as if Karesh is confirmed already, so Karesh will never be killed anyway. No one is going to risk attacking him at night, and the town will never lynch him without first checking by lynching Sif instead. If the only way the SK can win is by being the last alive, then a block of known townies is a huge obsticle. Elimintating Sif does two things. It reduces the voting block of townies, and it has the possiblity of flipping Karesh as scum. If Karesh is confirmed town, it doesn't change anything, as everyone has been treating him that way already.

I don't think my logic is flawed.

[IHateMakingNames]

Unvote: Nikose
HoS: Nikose
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

HoS: Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif


http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikeunsure.gif
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/reaction_spike_shrug-n1312860406441.png

[rpgdemon]

I'm going to go now, since I have work to do, then an hour long meeting to go to. The earliest I'll be around is 6:00 EST.

[Sifright]

Confirming Karesh doesn't lose the SK anything. Everyone in the game is acting as if Karesh is confirmed already, so Karesh will never be killed anyway. No one is going to risk attacking him at night, and the town will never lynch him without first checking by lynching Sif instead. If the only way the SK can win is by being the last alive, then a block of known townies is a huge obsticle. Elimintating Sif does two things. It reduces the voting block of townies, and it has the possiblity of flipping Karesh as scum. If Karesh is confirmed town, it doesn't change anything, as everyone has been treating him that way already.

I don't think my logic is flawed.


Your logic isn't flawed, at least in regards to that but worrying about who the SK is and wanting lynched based around SK choices at this moment in time is rather scummy of you. The only thing going in your favour is that I was pretty sure before that RPGDEMON was mafia although thinking of him as SK does make a little more sense to me.

[Sifright]

I don't want to double post but I think this needs to be kept in mind. We have undeniable proof that Nikose has been lying, Gregness role claimed and has stated nikose was role blocked the day before. To which Nikose then claims afterwards that he is a passive PO. Does any one actually believe that?

Nikose is obviously continuing his trend of lying which started with misconstruing snakes actions. I would also like to point out Rpgdemon over pushed a lynch of me in an effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.

[Ryanderman]

Your logic isn't flawed, at least in regards to that but worrying about who the SK is and wanting lynched based around SK choices at this moment in time is rather scummy of you. The only thing going in your favour is that I was pretty sure before that RPGDEMON was mafia although thinking of him as SK does make a little more sense to me.

Rather than being scummy, I think I've got myself convinced that at this point, the SK is more of an immdiate threat than the mafia. Specifically, I think both of them are going to be targetting town, and so if we can eliminate the SK, then go after the mafia, we reduce the number of townies that get killed every night while we go after the mafia.

But if there's reason to allow the SK to keep making kills, either because it won't hurt the town as much as I think it will, or because we think he'll target mafia, then I really do want to hear it. I don't particularly enjoy making myself a target by pushing this argument. But I think it's valid.


...oh, mafia voting block. Reducing that as much as possible as quickly as possible is a maybe a good reason to leave the SK for now... don't know.

[Ryanderman]

Also, the fact that Nikose is pretty much definitely scum, while rpgdemon is... not. I'm very convinced that he is, but I've still got little voices of doubt. With Nikose I don't, not anymore. hrm.

Unvote: rpgdemon

For now. Still have another day before the deadline.

[IHateMakingNames]

HoS: Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif


Rather than being scummy, I think I've got myself convinced that at this point, the SK is more of an immdiate threat than the mafia. Specifically, I think both of them are going to be targetting town, and so if we can eliminate the SK, then go after the mafia, we reduce the number of townies that get killed every night while we go after the mafia.

But if there's reason to allow the SK to keep making kills, either because it won't hurt the town as much as I think it will, or because we think he'll target mafia, then I really do want to hear it. I don't particularly enjoy making myself a target by pushing this argument. But I think it's valid.


...oh, mafia voting block. Reducing that as much as possible as quickly as possible is a maybe a good reason to leave the SK for now... don't know.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/bullshut.png




http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spike3-1.gif

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

Vote: Nikose

[Verifiedz]

What happened to snake? Is he dead?

[IHateMakingNames]

Nikose is obviously continuing his trend of lying which started with misconstruing snakes actions. I would also like to point out Rpgdemon over pushed a lynch of me in an effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.
I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon
effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/dw6osh.gif

[rpgdemon]

I would also like to point out Rpgdemon over pushed a lynch of me in an effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.

No I didn't. I pointed out that you're scummy, because you're scummy. And because Nik is incredibly weird, and makes no sense why he seems to want us to lynch him.

[rpgdemon]

My list of scum, in no particular order:

-Ryandermander
-Bard
-Nik
-Sif
-Karesh
-Greed

Are all suspicious. Now for reals vanishing, since I have things that will occupy my full attention until 6:00 PM EST.

Edit: Nik is weird in his suspiciousness though.

[Ryanderman]

I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight? If he is the SK, we'd see that the SK doesn't have a kill tonight, and so have some confirmation that rpgdemon is the SK tomorrow. Then we can decide whether or not to lynch him at that point, or keep pushing on the mafia. It would be just as effective at preventing another SK kill tonight as lynching rpgdemon would be (both would fail if rpgdemon is not the SK), and would allow us to continue aiming for mafia with our kills.

Thoughts?

Vote: Nikose Tyris

[Verifiedz]

I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight? If he is the SK, we'd see that the SK doesn't have a kill tonight, and so have some confirmation that rpgdemon is the SK tomorrow. Then we can decide whether or not to lynch him at that point, or keep pushing on the mafia. It would be just as effective at preventing another SK kill tonight as lynching rpgdemon would be (both would fail if rpgdemon is not the SK), and would allow us to continue aiming for mafia with our kills.

Thoughts?

Vote: Nikose Tyris
I gotta agree.

UNVOTE:rpgdemon

Vote:Nikose

[Sifright]

I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight? If he is the SK, we'd see that the SK doesn't have a kill tonight, and so have some confirmation that rpgdemon is the SK tomorrow. Then we can decide whether or not to lynch him at that point, or keep pushing on the mafia. It would be just as effective at preventing another SK kill tonight as lynching rpgdemon would be (both would fail if rpgdemon is not the SK), and would allow us to continue aiming for mafia with our kills.

Thoughts?

Vote: Nikose Tyris


Well it's a good way to identify the SK so in that regard i've no problem with it.

Edit: Whether RPG is the sk I meant to say

[Ryanderman]

Unless you really do think the SK will target mafia. If that's the case, we don't want to block him.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight? If he is the SK, we'd see that the SK doesn't have a kill tonight, and so have some confirmation that rpgdemon is the SK tomorrow. Then we can decide whether or not to lynch him at that point, or keep pushing on the mafia. It would be just as effective at preventing another SK kill tonight as lynching rpgdemon would be (both would fail if rpgdemon is not the SK), and would allow us to continue aiming for mafia with our kills.

Thoughts?

Vote: Nikose Tyris

I could get behind this plan. We vote Nikose today because he's our most obvious lead. If he turns up town then we know that greg was lying and the vig can kill him, if not, then we know greg was telling the truth and he can try roleblocking RPG, to try to ascertain his SK-ness and the vig can go after someone else.

AS for who the sk might go after, I really can't say, but I'd certainly feel safer if he was out of the way sooner rather than later.

EDIT;

Might help if I actually

Unvote: Greed

Vote: Nikose Tyris

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Unless you really do think the SK will target mafia. If that's the case, we don't want to block him.

I think the SK will try. But there's no guarantee.

[IHateMakingNames]

I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight?
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/pinkieno-1.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/raritydonotwant.png

13. rpgdemon
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

17. Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/nod5.gif

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Not sure what IHMN is trying to say here. Can anybody translate?

[Ryanderman]

He's saying he doesn't know whether rpgdemon is Mafia, SK, or Town, but he think's I'm scum (don't know if caped Spike is scum or mafia specifically). So he doesn't want to go along with my idea of blocking rpgdemon. I suspect, because he thinks I have an alterior motive, and following my idea will end up hurting the town in some way.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Not sure what IHMN is trying to say here. Can anybody translate?

"No, no. This is a bad plan. Do not want.

RPGdemon is either the SK or Sweetie Bell. I suspect Sweetie Bell. But am not sure.
I suspect Ryanderman is the Vig."

That's what I got from it.

I believe the Spike gif represents Suspicion rather than a side or role.

[IHateMakingNames]

There is the town. The town wins when all threats to the town are eliminated.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
There is a mafia. The mafia wins when the mafia comprises half of the remaining members.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
Any self-aligned players win when they are the last pony standing.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg




17. Ryanderman
There is a mafia. The mafia wins when the mafia comprises half of the remaining members.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

[Ryanderman]

"No, no. This is a bad plan. Do not want.

RPGdemon is either the SK or Sweetie Bell. I suspect Sweetie Bell. But am not sure.
I suspect Ryanderman is the Vig."

That's what I got from it.

I believe the Spike gif represents Suspicion rather than a side or role.

Oh, caped spike could mean Vig? I doubt it though, as he's been HOS'ing me.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Okay. So IHMN definitely thinks Ryander is Mafia.

[Ryanderman]

So IHMN, is the reason you don't want Gregness to target rpgdemon, because you don't want to risk blocking the SK's kill, as you think he may try to hit mafia? Or merely because you don't know if he's the SK? Or something else?

[Sifright]

am I the only one sitting here practically pissing himself laughing at IHMN posts? for whats it's worth i've interpreted it to be because he thinks your mafia.

[IHateMakingNames]

because he thinks your mafia.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Applejack-1.gif

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Ok yeah, that makes more sense now. He thinks ryander is mafia and since ryander suggested the plan, he's against it.

Unfortunately he can't seem to articulate why he thinks certain people are scumy, but he is doing surpsingly well for just using pictures.

[Ryanderman]

Yeah, but I don't think him thinking I am mafia is enough reason to not go with that plan. I think there's likely some other reason he thinks the plan is bad, and why I would be suggesting it, if I'm mafia.

[Ryanderman]

Or, it could be as simple as that.

[Sifright]

Well at this point SK is the biggest threat to mafia as with the vig it gives the chance for three mafia deaths a day night cycle.

[Ryanderman]

Well at this point SK is the biggest threat to mafia as with the vig it gives the chance for three mafia deaths a day night cycle.
Yeah, I'm just still not convinced the SK will actually go after mafia. If I thought going after mafia made the most sense for SK, I wouldn't have pushed so hard to lynch rpgdemon. No one's actually tried to counter, or show me flaws in my reasoning. Just flat disagreed.

[IHateMakingNames]

If I thought going after mafia made the most sense for SK, I wouldn't have pushed so hard to lynch rpgdemon. No one's actually tried to counter, or show me flaws in my reasoning. Just flat disagreed.
Nikose
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.
17. Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

[Sifright]

Yeah, I'm just still not convinced the SK will actually go after mafia. If I thought going after mafia made the most sense for SK, I wouldn't have pushed so hard to lynch rpgdemon. No one's actually tried to counter, or show me flaws in my reasoning. Just flat disagreed.

Basically it comes down to a lack of town targets, Julford is inactive and has done nothing presumably he is town. So that drops us to 8 townies capable of voting. Assume we are wrong and Nikose is town. That drops us to 7. Mafia kill again during the night bam instantly down to 6 town votes the next day meaning mafia control day lynchs and night kills. Mafia really really want the SK and the VIG dead because it gives them much much easier time. Sk wants to kill mafia because they are a cohesive voting block with their power waxxing each day that one of their members doesn't die.

If mafiates aren't killed this game day/night They have won.

[Fenris]

Vote count!

Nikose 6
Sifright
Gregness
IHMN
Hawk
Ryanderman
Verifiedz

Ryanderman 1
rpgdemon

rpgdemon 1
Bard

greed 3
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot
Karesh

Gregness 1
Nikose

8 To Lynch, deadline tomorrow night!

btw 3 people got up to 6 votes. It was pretty fantastic.

[Ryanderman]

Basically it comes down to a lack of town targets, Julford is inactive and has done nothing presumably he is town. So that drops us to 8 townies capable of voting. Assume we are wrong and Nikose is town. That drops us to 7. Mafia kill again during the night bam instantly down to 6 town votes the next day meaning mafia control day lynchs and night kills. Mafia really really want the SK and the VIG dead because it gives them much much easier time. Sk wants to kill mafia because they are a cohesive voting block with their power waxxing each day that one of their members doesn't die.

If mafiates aren't killed this game day/night They have won.

That's an excellent argument for why mafia would want the SK dead, and why the town shouldn't focus on the SK right now. I was trying to look at it from the SK's perspective, but I didn't take into account how close the mafia is to gaining a majority. That is really close. The SK is going to feel pressure from that, and I could see how he would swing toward mafia targets, even though he'll also be feeling a need to eliminate the town roles that can out him.

I really didn't realize how close the mafia was.

So given that there is a fair chance the SK will try to hit mafia, and given how close the mafia is to getting a majority, I can wholeheartedly support a Nikose lynch today. Still think having Gregness block rpgdemon would be a good thing, but not going to push for it.

As for IHMN, all I can say is that it wasn't about pulling a lynch off Nikose, but because I'd convinced myself the SK was, while maybe not the bigger threat, the threat that should be dealt with first, since the effects of elimintating him would be immediate, while it'll take time to eliminate the mafia. I guess I was wrong, but I was trying to be helpful.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Whats that IHMN, Billy fell down a well? Lead the way boy!

Anyways, I got some backlog to read, but my thoughts on the SK thing: it seems unlikely to me that roleblocking RPG will be successful, especially when its been reuqested to do it. If I was SK, I'd just totally not kill anyone to make it look like the roleblock was successful.

[Ryanderman]

I unvoted rpgdemon and voted Nikose in separate posts.

[Sifright]

Vote count!

Nikose 4
Sifright
Gregness
IHMN
Hawk

Ryanderman 1
rpgdemon

rpgdemon 4
Bard
Sifright
Verifiedz
Ryanderman

greed 3
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot
Karesh

Gregness 1
Nikose

8 To Lynch, deadline tomorrow night!

btw 2 people got up to 6 votes. It was pretty fantastic.

Not That I don't like having two votes and all but I think I should only be listed on Nikose. Unless there is something you aren't telling me :|

[Sifright]

Unvote:Rpgdemon
Vote:Nikose

Does that count as two votes? ;)

[Fenris]

Not That I don't like having two votes and all but I think I should only be listed on Nikose. Unless there is something you aren't telling me :|

Whatever are you talking about?

[Sifright]

I gotta agree.

UNVOTE:rpgdemon

Vote:Nikose

Also, the fact that Nikose is pretty much definitely scum, while rpgdemon is... not. I'm very convinced that he is, but I've still got little voices of doubt. With Nikose I don't, not anymore. hrm.

Unvote: rpgdemon

For now. Still have another day before the deadline.


I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight? If he is the SK, we'd see that the SK doesn't have a kill tonight, and so have some confirmation that rpgdemon is the SK tomorrow. Then we can decide whether or not to lynch him at that point, or keep pushing on the mafia. It would be just as effective at preventing another SK kill tonight as lynching rpgdemon would be (both would fail if rpgdemon is not the SK), and would allow us to continue aiming for mafia with our kills.

Thoughts?

Vote: Nikose Tyris


two more votes that need to be attributed properly. *hides before Tyrant Celestia moons me*

[Sifright]

Karesh, Aldurin could you guys tell me what you think of whats going on?

[Fenris]

two more votes that need to be attributed properly.You're hallucinating.

*hides before Tyrant Celestia moons me*

This joke is overplayed.

[rpgdemon]

I'm sitting here at my desk at work, should be working. But I can't stop stewing on this. What if Gregness blocks rpgdemon tonight? If he is the SK, we'd see that the SK doesn't have a kill tonight, and so have some confirmation that rpgdemon is the SK tomorrow. Then we can decide whether or not to lynch him at that point, or keep pushing on the mafia. It would be just as effective at preventing another SK kill tonight as lynching rpgdemon would be (both would fail if rpgdemon is not the SK), and would allow us to continue aiming for mafia with our kills.

Thoughts?

Vote: Nikose Tyris

If I were SK, since this plan's public, I'd just not make a hit tonight to get a free day. As far as I know, blocks don't get to know that they actually did anything, right?

Edit: Stop making more pages than I see when I'm not around.

[rpgdemon]

As an aside: That was a "Hypothetically, SK would do X", type deal, instead of a, "If I am the serial killer, here's my plan" type deal. Since it reads both ways, but only makes sense as a hypothetical if I were the SK, and not RPGDemon, and not as an If I am RPGDemon and the SK.

[Bard The 5th LW]

I'm inclined to agree with the above. He may or may not be SK, but a roleblock wouldn't rally prove much when we've gone public about it.

[rpgdemon]

The free day would be day of lynches, rather. Like, SK doesn't make a hit tonight, gets me lynched tomorrow, and town is down, scum doesn't go down.

Still thinking Ryandermander is scum. Or just bad at figuring out extenuating conditions.

[Ryanderman]

The free day would be day of lynches, rather. Like, SK doesn't make a hit tonight, gets me lynched tomorrow, and town is down, scum doesn't go down.

Still thinking Ryandermander is scum. Or just bad at figuring out extenuating conditions.

Or just overthinking it. Which would in effect be the later.
But yeah, roleblocking you wouldn't do much if there is no night flavor when a kill role is roleblocked.

[Sifright]

If I were SK, since this plan's public, I'd just not make a hit tonight to get a free day. As far as I know, blocks don't get to know that they actually did anything, right?

Edit: Stop making more pages than I see when I'm not around.

The corollary to that is that there is a night where a chance of a townie being killed knocked off is removed so thats kind of good.

Edit: besides which I doubt the SK would do that unless he were relatively certain he was implicating a mafiate.

[Ryanderman]

Edit: besides which I doubt the SK would do that unless he were relatively certain he was implicating a mafiate.

I really think you're overestimating how much the SK may want to hit mafiates over town. But I don't know anymore.

[Bard The 5th LW]

The Sk is totally going to gun for Mafia as the town dwindles. Mafia wins when it outnumbers everyone else, so the SK is gonna want them gone as soon as possible. In a way, the town having higher numbers is almost beneficial to the SK. So yeah, he'll probably be gunning for people on the HOS lists, like Greed or myself.

[Ryanderman]

Maybe my problem is that I'd make a horrible SK. I keep trying to think of what I'd do were I the SK, and the conclusion I came to is that with all the power roles the town has, I'd be more worried about them than the mafia, which gets 1 kill and some lynch manipulation a day. Unless the mafia has power roles too, but we at least know the town does.

I think really, it would depend on how Nikose flips. If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town, as the mafia would be weakend and I'd have more time. If Nikose flips town, then I could see how gunning for mafia would be more wise.

Anyway, I'm not trying to argue against a Nikose lynch at this point. It is the best thing we can do. And maybe I'm spending too much effort trying to predict the SK, and not enough trying to figure who stands where, given what we'll learn from lynching Nikose.

[Oron]

Had some time to catch up today. Just got a few things to say before I've got to get back to homework/studying (still in Midterm mode):

1) Now that the idea of Greg roleblocking RPG has already been proposed, the SK can simply not submit a target this night, as has also been stated. But this still puts pressure on the SK in that Greg might roleblock him anyway next night or at a later date/use the opportunity to find other scum power roles via roleblocking (if there are any Mafia roles other than the killer). Just throwing that out there. It's still quite possible for this knowledge to be advantageous.

However, I'm not proposing who Greg should actually target. That's his role.

2) It's been a while since Nik's posted (relatively speaking) in this thread. I still have yet to see him give a (what I'd consider) concrete response to everyone's continued suspicion of him, and in that regard, I want see what he has to say.

3) I agree that SK's most likely to prioritize removing Mafiates at this point. He won't want to risk a Mafia win.

Now back to studying. I'll take a peek at this thread every now and then until I'm done with exams.

[Sifright]

Also considering the reasonable likelyhood i'll be night killed my suspicion list is as follows.

HOS:Rpgdemon (over pushing my lynch coinciding with a anti nikose stance for a short while)
HOS:Ryanderman (Worrying about the SK, also a minor attempt to push the lynch wagon away from Nikose)
HOS:Bard (low activity - in lieu of other targets)
HOS: Oron (low activity - in lieu of other targets)

[Bard The 5th LW]

Activity has mostyly been low because of after school stuff. Tuesday is basically the only day of the week I go directly home after class.

[IHateMakingNames]

Well at this point SK is the biggest threat to mafia
3) I agree that SK's most likely to prioritize removing Mafiates at this point. He won't want to risk a Mafia win.
If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/nod5.gif






17. Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

However, I'm not proposing whohttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice.jpgshould actually target.

I think really, it would depend on how Nikose flips. If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town, as the mafia would be weakend and I'd have more time. If Nikose flips town, then I could see how gunning for mafia would be more wise.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Angry_fluttershy_2.png


3. Nikose

17. Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Angry_fluttershy_2.png






understand
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/sadrarity.gif

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

I make a personal guarantee to the SK that if it comes to a draw like that, if we as a town are so utterly incompetent as to allow him to come to a 1:1 situation with me? I will vote to lynch myself.

[Ryanderman]

I make a personal guarantee to the SK that if it comes to a draw like that, if we as a town are so utterly incompetent as to allow him to come to a 1:1 situation with me? I will vote to lynch myself.

It wasn't so much that I thought that would ever actually happen, but that I thought it would be the only end condition the SK could strive for.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

It wasn't so much that I thought that would ever actually happen, but that I thought it would be the only end condition the SK could strive for.

It's a possibility. And if it happened it would mean it came down to 3 people, 1 town 1 SK for me to vote for. And in that circumstance, I would need to pick wrong.
So...if I did, I'd think the SK has earned his win.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Oh actually I guess it could come down to 1 town 1 mafia 1 SK too.
Which would be lose/lose for me.

[Ryanderman]

Or there were 4 after the lynch the day before: you, a mafiate, the SK, and another townie. The mafiate kills the townie, the SK kills the mafiate, and you're left with the SK.

There are several fairly plausible scenarios in which that could happen I think.

[Aldurin]

Karesh, Aldurin could you guys tell me what you think of whats going on?

I'm trying to sort through all of the complex arguments but so far I see.

1. Nikose as the prime suspect as scum.
2. rpgdemon as possible serial killer due reactions to the bulletproof claim.
3. this is complete bullshit
4. I want to put up the complete possibility that IHMN may possibly be scum? It'd be a low priority suspicion but it would take us completely by surprise if he was.

Unvote: greed

Vote: Nikose

I still think greed should go next if no other suspects become higher priority.

[IHateMakingNames]

2. rpgdemon as possible serial killer due reactions to the bulletproof claim.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/4oLPO.gif
4. I want to put up the complete possibility that IHMN may possibly be scum? It'd be a low priority suspicion but it would take us completely by surprise if he was.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/572328.gif


I still think greed should go next if no other suspects become higher priority.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Twilight_Sparkle_Rapidash.gif

There is a mafia.
17. Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/scum.png

[Bard The 5th LW]

Greed lives on the other side fo the planet, that is a pretty legit reason for not posting as often as the rest of us. When he does get time to post, most of us are probably asleep and thus he has nothing new to respond to.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/scum.png

Do you know something we don't?

[Bard The 5th LW]

If its just a hunch based off what you've seen so far, post Rainbow Dash. If you absolutely know for sure like legit then post Twilight.

[IHateMakingNames]

If its just a hunch based off what you've seen so far, post Rainbow Dash. If you absolutely know for sure like legit then post Twilight.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/both.png

[Fenris]

7 on Nikose, now with Earl's vote.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Clever girl

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I feel like I'm down to Ryander and Nikose...

AH WHATEVER, FUCK IT.

WHO DARES, WINS!

Vote: Nikose

[IHateMakingNames]

There is the town
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
There is a mafia
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
Any self-aligned players
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg
?
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg



1. Bard
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

3. Nikose
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

4. Karesh
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/fluttershy-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png

6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

7. Sifright
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/whooves.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png

9. Verifiedz
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

10. Earl
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Mayor-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png

12. Gregness
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/rarity.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png

13. rpgdemon
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

14. Julford Hajime
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg

15. Hawk
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

17. Ryanderman
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

18. Revolving Ocelot
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

21. IHateMakingNames
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/derpy-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png

22. Oron
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

[Fenris]

It is now Night! I'll type up a lynch post shortly.

[Nikose Tyris]

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/2739/inthegameofchessyoucann.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/402/inthegameofchessyoucann.jpg/)

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/2739/inthegameofchessyoucann.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/402/inthegameofchessyoucann.jpg/)

Monopoly.

[Fenris]

I lied about the shortly part.

"Bring Carrot Top to the stage!" Celestia cried. The townsponies, confused as to why such a usually nice pony had been acting so strange lately, semi-reluctantly ushered the orange maned mare to the front and center.

"I'm so sorry that I have to do this... but until we get the Nightmare and its accomplices, we cannot leave anypony unscrutinized. I promise that in the end, you'll be safe," Celestia reassured the quivering earth pony as she started up her unicorn magic.

Carrot Top began to levitate, surrounded by a mystical glow. Suddenly, she stopped.

"What is this power coming from this mare?" Celestia asked nopony in particular. "Where have I felt this before?"

It didn't take too long before the answer clicked. The effort required to move Carrot Top through space itself was not dissimilar from the effort required to move her own sun.

It was then, that it became clear to Celestia. Summoning her strength, she began to use ancient unicorn magic unseen by any pony for several generations.

"Begone from this innocent pony, corrupt star!" Celestia bellowed, hurling the astral body into the far reaches of space.

Nikose, Carrot Top, Possessed, Mafiate collapsed, once again a whole pony.

"Take that mare to the hospital!" Celestia commanded. "This is much more serious than I had anticipated. The stars have once again aided in Nightmare Moon's escape! We have to stop them!"

It is now Night 3. Deadline Friday evening!

[rpgdemon]

Even though I'm really not supposed to post at night, I'm going to be gone with very limited internet access this next weekend, so I most likely won't be posting.

[Fenris]

I typed up a really big night post last night but then the internet ate it.

Hawk, Rainbow Dash, Bard, Lily, and Ryanderman, Rose are missing.

Rose totes said "The horror, the horror," in the night post. It was awesome.

Day 4, 6 to lynch.

[Fenris]

(The usual details are in the first post.)

[Aldurin]

Vote: greed

And dammit scum stop getting so many stealth kills.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

http://i262.photobucket.com/albums/ii87/Hawk_of_Battle/Thegame.png

[Bard The 5th LW]

http://blog.vh1.com/files/2009/01/ta_1_42.jpg

[Aldurin]

Hang on, first of all Fenris forgot to list Hawk's status in the first post. Second, I remember Ryanderman throwing suspicion at rpgdemon for being scum (I think SK specifically) and now he's subject to the "turned to stone status".

FoS-Extra Strength: rpgdemon

All I'm worried about is if the SK is really a priority target right now? The mafia can win earlier if they maintain the majority.

[Aldurin]

Derp, in that last sentence I meant "gain the majority".

[Revising Ocelot]

11 of us left, 6 to lynch? Gonna guess there's a 6-4-1 spread of Town, Mafia and SK left, worst case scenario. Obviously some Mafia may have been scooped up by random kills already, as roles and alignment aren't revealed in the non-lynches.

I think this'll be our last day before a loss, if we don't get rid of any more Mafia.

[Gregness]

Anyone have any ideas about what the "possessed" tag in Nik's role means? Or is it not significant at all?

Edit: I am freaking shocked mafia didn't decide to off me last night.

[Revising Ocelot]

I assume it just means he's a Mafia Goon. Stars being in service of the Nightmare Moon? (Even if that sounds totally backwards to me)

Someone with actual knowledge of the show care to enlighten us?

[IHateMakingNames]

In The Forest
8. Smarty McB - Led Astray Night 1
5. Solid Snake - Led Astray Night 2

17. Ryanderman - Petrified Night 3
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/389.png

I assume it just means he's a Mafia Goon.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/nod5.gif


Vote: greed



17. Ryanderman - Petrified Night 3

1. Bard - "The horror, the horror!" Night 3
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/hoity-1.gif

[Revising Ocelot]

Uh, what's that Black Pony meant to represent?

Mafia?

SK?

Cult?

(use appropiate gifs for each one)

[IHateMakingNames]

In The Forest
8. Smarty McB - Led Astray Night 1
5. Solid Snake - Led Astray Night 2

Turned to Stone
2. P-Sleazy - Petrified Night 1
5. Solid Snake - Petrified Night 2
17. Ryanderman - Petrified Night 3

Cleaning House
19. Bob Dole - Grounded Night 1
20. Fawfulcopter - Broke the Fourth Wall Night 2
1. Bard - "The horror, the horror!" Night 3
Hawk, Rainbow Dash... missing.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/rainbow_dash_shrug_by_dropletx1-d3j6g5i.png


(Edited in)
6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif





4. Karesh
6. greed
7. Sifright
9. Verifiedz
10. Earl
12. Gregness
13. rpgdemon
14. Julford Hajime
18. Revolving Ocelot
21. IHateMakingNames
22. Oron

There is the town
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
There is a mafia
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
Any self-aligned players
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg

full role call
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/derpy_shrug-n1307422713921.png

[Sifright]

This is where I make a big huge posting going FFFFF yea for calling out a nikose lynch day one, and then go ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shit because we lost the vig. Also two of people i presumed most scummy just disappeared so i've no one else to go on apart from greed who is just low activity.

I'd also like to discuss something with every one else, this is a tentative question but i've realised that if the SK night kills me then Karesh won't be confirmed by my death. Mafia won't night kill me because the flavor text will they did so and thus confirm karesh.

So my question is what is every ones thoughts on actually proving kareshs claim do we go with that or does every one trust karesh enough to not need it?

[IHateMakingNames]

So my question is what is every ones thoughts on actually proving kareshs claim do we go with that or does every one trust karesh enough to not need it?
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/facehoof.png

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

I have to admit I voted Nik primarily because IHMN recommended it. Who do you recommend next, IHMN?

I think Greed.

[Sifright]

Well the thing is if the SK kills me we can't prove kareshs claim it's why I though i was dead that game night.

[IHateMakingNames]

I have to admit I voted Nik primarily because IHMN recommended it. Who do you recommend next, IHMN?

I think Greed.
Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Applejack-1.gif

[Sifright]

@gregness it's possible mafia didn't off you because they don't have any power roles that you can block?

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Applejack-1.gif

Oh, missed that so with that in mind:
Vote: Greed

[Revising Ocelot]

While I'm here I'm going to do a list.

4. Karesh - Town
7. Sifright Town
10. Earl - Town
12. Gregness - Town?
18. Revolving Ocelot - Town (Obviously!)
21. IHateMakingNames - Town

I'm convinced most of these are town. This matches up with me thinking there's 6 town left.

I'm slightly suspicious of Gregness, as his roleclaim as roleblocker who roleblocked Nikose as things were heading towards a Nikose lynch (of Nikose's own doing?) strikes me as too convenient.

Process of elimination leaves:

6. greed - Scum
9. Verifiedz Serial Killer?
13. rpgdemon - Scum
14. Julford Hajime Scum but still inactive since August.
22. Oron Scum?

Therefore,
FoS - greed, Veri, RPG, Julford, Oron

Veri as the serial killer is just a crazy enough idea that I could see being true.
Julford should be disregarded for now as he still hasn't logged on since August. The only way he could be participating is sending night roles through an alt. Which is practically cheating, so I doubt it.
Oron's not been as inactive as greed has (and greed's idleness has been deliberate), but he's starting to raise red flags for me now.



Anyone on the bottom list care to refute my finger-pointing?

[Gregness]

@gregness it's possible mafia didn't off you because they don't have any power roles that you can block?

Actually, I hadn't considered that.

Anyway, Julford Hajime can't be the Serial Killer since I blocked him last night and the SK's night kill still went through.

[Sifright]

Well my personal choice for lynching would be Rpgdemon, i've host of reasons going to do a Post by post analysis in a bit.

Edit: why would you roleblock some one who has been inactive since forever?

[Revising Ocelot]

Anyway, Julford Hajime can't be the Serial Killer since I blocked him last night and the SK's night kill still went through.

You roleblocked the guy who's not been on since August. :raise:


Why?

[IHateMakingNames]

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/rarityhead.gif
This matches up with me thinking there's 6 town left.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/pinkieno-1.gif

6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif





4. Karesh
6. greed
7. Sifright
9. Verifiedz
10. Earl
12. Gregness
13. rpgdemon
14. Julford Hajime
18. Revolving Ocelot
21. IHateMakingNames
22. Oron

There is the town
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
There is a mafia
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
Any self-aligned players
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg



Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png






Well my personal choice for lynching would be Rpgdemon, i've host of reasons going to do a Post by post analysis in a bit.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/twilightno.gif

[Gregness]

(The usual details are in the first post.)

LIES!



On The Moon
11. Mr. Bookworm, Sweetie Belle, Cutie Mark Crusader - GM Moon'd Day 1
16. Geminex, Applejack, Element of Honesty (Bodyguard) - Moon'd by Mayoral Decree, Day 2
3. Nikose, Carrot Top, Possessed (Mafiate) - Purified, Day 3

In The Forest
8. Smarty McB - Led Astray Night 1
5. Solid Snake - Led Astray Night 2

Turned to Stone
2. P-Sleazy - Petrified Night 1
5. Solid Snake - Petrified Night 2
17. Ryanderman - Petrified Night 3

Cleaning House
19. Bob Dole - Grounded Night 1
20. Fawfulcopter - Broke the Fourth Wall Night 2
1. Bard - "The horror, the horror!" Night 3


Where's Hawk's data then?

Waitwaitwait, if I've caught fenris in a lie then... YOU GUYS, FENRIS IS THE GODFATHER!

Seriously, though, Hawk's in the forest?

[IHateMakingNames]

Seriously, though, Hawk's in the forest?
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/nod5.gif

Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png

[Gregness]

Well my personal choice for lynching would be Rpgdemon, i've host of reasons going to do a Post by post analysis in a bit.

Edit: why would you roleblock some one who has been inactive since forever?

You roleblocked the guy who's not been on since August. :raise:


Why?

Because



(the swap tag breaks nested quotes apparantly)

Julford Hajime

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg



I actually had a few people I suspected more than Julford, but since it was discussed that the SK might just not submit a kill for last night I figured it might end up being a null-tell so I picked someone less likely.

That satisfactory?

[Aldurin]

While I'm here I'm going to do a list.

4. Karesh - Town
7. Sifright Town
10. Earl - Town
12. Gregness - Town?
18. Revolving Ocelot - Town (Obviously!)
21. IHateMakingNames - Town

I'm convinced most of these are town. This matches up with me thinking there's 6 town left.

I'm slightly suspicious of Gregness, as his roleclaim as roleblocker who roleblocked Nikose as things were heading towards a Nikose lynch (of Nikose's own doing?) strikes me as too convenient.

Process of elimination leaves:

6. greed - Scum
9. Verifiedz Serial Killer?
13. rpgdemon - Scum
14. Julford Hajime Scum but still inactive since August.
22. Oron Scum?

Therefore,
FoS - greed, Veri, RPG, Julford, Oron

Veri as the serial killer is just a crazy enough idea that I could see being true.
Julford should be disregarded for now as he still hasn't logged on since August. The only way he could be participating is sending night roles through an alt. Which is practically cheating, so I doubt it.
Oron's not been as inactive as greed has (and greed's idleness has been deliberate), but he's starting to raise red flags for me now.

Nobody can be sure about verifiedz since his competence could easily apply to any alignment. I'm leaning towards rpg being serial killer, or mafia if not that, given the nature of the night kills and the whole bigass issue of a bulletproof roleclaim ruining the game for the SK.

I'll vote for him the next day since the mafia should remain priority (with any luck the SK will knock out part of the mafia for us) and I feel that greed is more likely to be mafia than rpg is.

Point is, serial killer is still open, and Verifiedz is a wild card that we'll get to once the big issues are out of the way.

[Revising Ocelot]

IHMN, I'm assuming 6 town because that's the worst case scenario. Given that in the Homestuck Mafia none of the Mafia were killed, pessimism is the safest route to take.

[IHateMakingNames]

IHMN, I'm assuming 6 town because that's the worst case scenario. Given that in the Homestuck Mafia none of the Mafia were killed, pessimism is the safest route to take.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/nah.gif

Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png

[Gregness]

IHMN, you seem to have a pretty big hardon for lynching greed; what makes you so sure?

[Revising Ocelot]

Well anyway, I would -really- like to see greed, RPG, and Oron* put forward cases on why we shouldn't lynch them and that they're Town. We're at a critical crunch time here.




*Veri can pass because it'll probably be :wtf:.

[IHateMakingNames]

IHMN, you seem to have a pretty big hardon for lynching greed; what makes you so sure?
Vote: greed
VOTE: Greed
Vote: Greed
Vote: Greed
Vote:Greed
Vote: greed.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/RGzoF.png


UNVOTE: GREED

Because actually

VOTE: RPGDEMON

Because Sifright.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/572328-1.png


3. Nikose
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/raritysly.gif

6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif

Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png





We're at a critical crunch time here
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/131611626603.gif

6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif


4. Karesh
6. greed
7. Sifright
9. Verifiedz
10. Earl
12. Gregness
13. rpgdemon
14. Julford Hajime
18. Revolving Ocelot
21. IHateMakingNames
22. Oron

There is the town
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.pnghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/townie-1.png
There is a mafia
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpghttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif
Any self-aligned players
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/cockatrice-1.jpg


full role call
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/derpy_shrug-n1307422713921.png

[Aldurin]

IHMN is saying that there's mass-suspicious from the town, and nikose changed his vote from greed at a certain point, probably after he was mafia-possessed.

[Sifright]

Can't we just get Celestia to try and lift each of us up? Perfect diagnostic test

[IHateMakingNames]

Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png

full role call
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png


http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/3e7i.jpg

[Revising Ocelot]

If you're saying that greed's the SK, I doubt that. Scum yes, but I think the SK's a tossup between Veri and RPG.


Not voting just yet as I want to see how things pan out more.

[IHateMakingNames]

If you're saying that greed's the SK, I doubt that. Scum yes, but I think the SK's a tossup between Veri and RPG.


Not voting just yet as I want to see how things pan out more.
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/gildamad.gif


6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gifhttp://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/images-1.jpg

6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif


6. greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/spikemafia.gif


HoS: Revolving Ocelot





Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png

full role call
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/Stare-n1299703181002.png


http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/3e7i.jpg

[Revising Ocelot]

Well, it's just that you keep including a chicken-thing in your images and it's been established the cockatrice is the SK. Which is a semi-chicken thing. *shrug*

[IHateMakingNames]

Well, it's just that you keep including a chicken-thing in your images and it's been established the cockatrice is the SK. Which is a semi-chicken thing. *shrug*
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/tumblr_lq3gyuOKWL1qf1bz5.jpg


Vote: greed
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/MLP_FIM_-_Fluttershy_Stare.png

full role call
http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/MLP_FIM_-_Fluttershy_Stare.png


http://i858.photobucket.com/albums/ab149/IStillHateMakingNames/3e7i.jpg